Craig

Small windows for Perth and Mandurah, large and windy from Sunday

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th June)

Best Days: Perth and Mandurah Wednesday and Thursday mornings, Friday across the South West, early Saturday all locations

Recap

Poor onshore waves all weekend with a building NW windswell Saturday and larger W/SW swell on Sunday (workable for a period Saturday morning around Mandurah and Perth though small).

The swell eased back into this morning but with lingering onshore winds across the South West and better light offshore winds around Mandurah and Perth, easing from 3-4ft and 2-3ft in Perth.

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We'll see onshore winds across all locations tomorrow as the remnants of a strong low that formed over the weekend clipping the state.

Fresh W/SW tending SW winds will create average conditions as the swell continues to ease, building again into the afternoon as mid-period energy from the low starts to fill in.

This will be ahead of the long-period groundswell proper on Wednesday which should build to a good 6-8ft late in the day across the South West from 6ft early, 2ft+ to 2-3ft around Mandurah and Perth.

Winds look favourable and light offshore for Perth and Mandurah, while Margs unfortunately looks to linger onshore from the W/SW on Wednesday and now Thursday as well as the swell eases, which is a shame. Variable winds should again be seen in Perth and Mandurah as the swell eases from 2ft+ in Perth and 2-3ft Mandurah.

Cleaner conditions will be seen Friday across the South West as winds tend E/NE (possibly light N arvo) but the swell will be smallish and back to 4ft or so. Into the afternoon a new long-period SW groundswell is due, produced by a strong polar low that's currently around the Heard Island region.

The low won't last especially long, putting a cap on the expected size, and also making the swell inconsistent but a pulse to 4-6ft across the South West, but only 1-2ft in Mandurah and tiny in Perth.

A secondary stronger but smaller low will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds closer to us, producing another long-period groundswell for Saturday morning. Margs should see better 5-6ft+ sets with 2ft waves in Mandurah and 1-2ft sets in Perth Saturday morning with an early NE breeze that will freshen from the N/NE through the morning with an approaching mid-latitude trough.

From Sunday we're due to see large levels of W/SW groundswell developing across the state as a strong node of the Long Wave Trough in the southern Indian Ocean feeds a series of vigorous storms.

The tight intense low linked to Saturday morning's swell will be the first system developing under the LWT with a secondary broader system firing up south-east of Madagascar.

This should generate a large long-period W/SW groundswell for Sunday afternoon, with a broad W/SW fetch maintaining large surf into Monday before a sling-shot fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds are projected towards us through the weekend, producing an XL W/SW swell Monday/Tuesday.

Unfortunately the storm itself will approach us bringing onshore winds from Sunday out of the NW, persisting Monday and swinging more W'ly into Tuesday. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday though.

Comments

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 11 Jun 2018 at 5:54pm

Monday has been a gem. Still curious as to the synoptic that produced the easterly for the coastal plain and waters, while westerly flow continued everywhere else.

quokka's picture
quokka's picture
quokka commented Monday, 11 Jun 2018 at 7:43pm

Yeah was weird, blowing it's balls off yesterday and offshore today. This used to happen a bit, you could tell it was going to be offshore in the morning when the strong southerly blew in after a front but this didn't happen yesterday, stayed SW.
Was dirty I couldn't get down, conditions were perfect.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018 at 8:45am

There was a small coastal trough with easterly winds feeding into it around Perth and Mandurah, while to the south, Margaret River was still under the influence of weakish westerlies.

rooftop's picture
rooftop's picture
rooftop commented Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018 at 11:57pm

Yep, Perth metro was offshore, peaky, plenty of banks for everyone. A lot of crew hooting strangers in to barrels. Great vibe.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018 at 10:14am

Thanks a lot for the answer, you could see the trough and the moment (12:30 maybe) when it did come in over the coast where we were, you could see the SW a bit further out, just light, then feel it change to an onshore on the skin. From what I saw on the windy forecast the night before, towns to the north of Perth were also remaining in the SW /W flow.
2 surfs and a lot of nostalgia - when the coast has banks it is barrelly and better banks at the main metro beach than I remember 10 years ago. Between certain reef breaks in the north with the winter swell, and those beachies way up past the city near where the new road has gone in, you really are blessed in Perth with waves with a bit of shape - just gotta drive for the occasion. 4wd really helps get to the beachies!
The reef was curious, first surfed there maybe 1993 and I don't remember the keyhole to paddle out, always did so off the end section back then. Things must have changed a bit.
Edit: also very friendly crew to talk to, enjoyed that as well.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018 at 12:42pm

Nice riff :)

quokka's picture
quokka's picture
quokka commented Tuesday, 12 Jun 2018 at 12:33pm

From the way you are talking seems you are back visiting and if you are you are lucky because we actually have metro banks at the moment...usually not the case. I'm guessing you're talking about The Spot or Derrs re the reef (not letting any secret spots out here). They could have have been good yesterday...crowded?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 14 Jun 2018 at 8:32pm

Yep your guess is in the ballpark - I wonder what the banks at a certain navy place are like over summer these days? Surely they are ok? I talk spots as cryptic as I can :)
Following the road north (been out of range) there were some absolute gem seascapes, real boys own adventure stuff to go and surf, some breaks a looong way out!

quokka's picture
quokka's picture
quokka commented Friday, 15 Jun 2018 at 12:48pm

Yep I get that but those two are as common as vegemite but kudos to you. Used to surf the navy place heaps until you know what happened. Navy made it harder to get to as well prior to that. Banks are always better as there's no development affecting sand flow. I've had so many fun sessions up there. North of that, yeah I've heard there are setups but a boat is required and local knowledge. Big fins out there sniffing around.

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