Tricky west swells continue
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th August)
Best Days: Thursday, exposed beaches Friday but windy, Saturday and Monday morning's Surf Coast
Recap
A drop in swell back from 2-3ft across the Surf Coast yesterday, best in protected locations, with stronger W/NW winds into the afternoon kicking up an additional windswell. All locations to the east were poor and onshore.
This morning the swell was back to a small and inconsistent 2ft around Torquay, but 13th Beach was seeing inconsistent sets to 3ft with favourable winds. To the east Phillip Island was best with a N'ly wind and fun sized swell.
We should see some new mid-period W/SW swell building through this afternoon but conditions will become bumpy as winds shift W/SW with the passing front.
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Currently a strong mid-latitude front is pushing in from the west, with it generating W'ly gales in our western swell window under WA earlier this week.
The fetch orientation and fronts position wasn't great for us but we should see a bit more swell on the coast compared to what we're currently experiencing.
With the front passing through this afternoon we'll see an increase in mid-period W/SW swell with the groundswell proper filling in overnight and peaking tomorrow morning.
We're looking at surf mostly in the 3ft range across the Surf Coast (possibly the odd bigger one at magnets like 13th Beach) and the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds will persist from the N/NW most of the day, tending NW at times creating plenty of fun options across the state.
The swell will fade into Friday morning, dropping to a small 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east with strong N-N/NE winds, favouring the exposed beaches before shifting slightly more N/NW into the afternoon on the Surf Coast.
Into the afternoon a new W/SW groundswell is due to fill in, generate by a good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales that are currently south of WA. This fetch and a slightly stronger trailing fetch should generate some new inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Friday afternoon, peaking Saturday morning.
We should see the Surf Coast building to 2ft to possibly 3ft by dark, holding a similar size on Saturday, with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds will be best for the Surf Coast Saturday but only through the morning, with a W/NW breeze, swinging W/SW into the afternoon.
A new mid-period SW swell is due to build Sunday, peaking early Monday, generated by a relatively weak but slow moving polar fetch of strong SW winds over the coming days.
The fetch will slowly project towards us on Saturday with the front likely moving through Sunday bringing generally SW winds (W/NW early around Torquay).
The swell doesn't look too impressive, with a late increase to 2-3ft expected on the Surf Coast, peaking Monday morning around 3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets to the east. Winds should remain favourable for the Surf Coast with a morning W/NW breeze, W/SW into the afternoon.
Longer term smaller west swells will continue into the middle of the week ahead of a possible much more significant W/SW groundswell late week, more on this Friday.
Comments
Gee, it was pretty terrible this morning. Weak 2ft, closely spaced mid period rubbish. When are we gonna get some proper lined-up stuff?
Yeah didn't look great. Mid-late next week is shaping up much better.
Great news Craig, if we continue to get these lacklustre westerly swells I might need to change my Swellnet username to just plain old G. I haven't had a walk around in a week or maybe even 10 days or so, starting to get pretty desperate which is unusual for this time of year.
Wasn't too bad where we were this morning. No one out.
This also looks tasty as well..
Sarvo was fun.
Been a great 4 or 5 weeks I recon. Winds from the northerly quadrant everyday.