Large dangerous surf only for the most experienced

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast the whole period, but only for the most experienced from later Wednesday through Friday

Recap

Great waves across the Surf Coast again Saturday with a our new long-period pulse of S/SW groundswell showing on the Cape Sorell wave buoy late Friday afternoon and filling in overnight.

Magnets saw good 4-5ft+ waves through the morning, easing off later in the day as conditions remained clean. To the east the exposed beaches pulsed to 6-8ft on the sets, with fun options in more protected locations, though a little slow and easing quickly.

The swell dropped much quicker than expected into Sunday morning leaving small weak leftover 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves to the east, smaller again into this morning as the we fall in between swells.

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Small levels of background swell should fill in this afternoon across both regions, coming in at an infrequent 2ft on the sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east as winds shift more N/NW.

Our slightly stronger long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell for tomorrow should provide a touch more energy through the morning, but it will be slow.

This swell was generated last week in our far swell window, around the Heard Island region.

The swell is due to arrive later today and peak tomorrow to an infrequent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, with 3-5ft sets to the east. This will be the smallest the surf will be for the coming period with a ton of activity due from the afternoon.

Since late last week we've seen the south-east Indian Ocean firing up in a big way with winter calibre storms developing under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.

An initial broad and elongated fetch of severe-gale westerly winds set in motion a large active ocean sea state for a much more significant fetch of storm-force W/SW winds to move over, projected towards WA and the Bight.

We're still seeing a broad fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds in our western swell window south of WA, weakening while projecting west towards us this evening and tomorrow.

This should bring some mid-period swell mid-late tomorrow afternoon across our region, with a late increase in size towards 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will be strong but great for the Surf Coast all tomorrow, from the N/NW through the morning, shifting more NW-W/NW later in the day.

Now, the large long-period W/SW groundswell from the storm proper is expected to fill in on Wednesday, building strongly through the afternoon, though undersized early.

I'm still expecting this swell to peak through the evening Wednesday with a reinforcing large pulse for Thursday morning, with most of Wednesday consistent of mid-period and strengthening swell energy.

This can be seen in the model guidance with 4.7m of mid-period 12.1s W/SW swell at 12am/midnight Tuesday, incorrectly being combined with the new long-period energy, resulting in an over-forecast of the open ocean swell energy Wednesday midday at 12pm, with it showing 5m at 19.5s. This is not the case with the long-period energy building through the day from that 2.4m at 6am.

It's hard to put a size on the morning, but we're likely to see 4-6ft of mid-period swell on the Surf Coast and 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with the mix of mid-period and long-period energy, kicking to a larger 6-8ft late afternoon across magnets on the Surf Coast, if not for the odd larger one on dark. Conditions are looking excellent all day now, with fresh to strong NW winds, tending N/NW at periods.

Thursday still looks to offer the most size for me, with large 6-8ft+ waves across magnets on the Surf Coast during the early morning and 10-12ft surf to the east, with a large long-period reinforcing W/SW groundswell filling in through the day.

This will be generated by a secondary severe-low develop in our western swell window, south-west of WA tomorrow morning, projecting a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds on top of another active sea state.

More consistent, large surf should be seen across our state through the day Thursday, with sets likely to kick to 10ft on the Surf Coast magnets, with 12ft+ surf to the east. With the west in the swell, more protected breaks will be much smaller and more manageable.

This secondary low will be part of a broader slower moving low, with additional fetches of W/SW gales persisting through our swell window into the end of the week.

This will also help create excellent conditions for the Surf Coast reefs on Thursday with a gusty N/NW-NW breeze holding most of the day and only possibly swinging W/NW into the afternoon.

It will only be for the most experienced of surfers though with the large consistent and powerful sets.

We're looking at slowly easing large surf into Friday with less favourable winds from the W/SW-SW, though the Torquay region will likely see morning W/NW breezes.

We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.

Into the weekend, we're looking at a continuation of great surf with a moderate to large reinforcing pulse of W/SW groundswell Saturday morning from the slow moving low mid-late this week along with offshore NW winds, smaller and more N/NW-N breezes on Sunday.

This will be ahead of more vigorous winter calibre storm energy firing up south-west of WA, bringing more moderate to large surf early-mid next week, but we'll run through this on Wednesday.

Comments

curl's picture
curl's picture
curl Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 11:53am

Big enough for the 50 year storm comp on Wednesday or is that just hype? Your saying just 6ft so I’m guessing hype.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 11:55am

Yep, no way Wednesday.

Maybe Thursday, though the swell is west and not monsterous.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 12:17pm

The criteria for last year was 12ft plus, Thursday not looking like that so hopefully it doesn’t run and us everyday likeable punters can get a few

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 12:19pm

Yeah confident it won't get to that size.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 12:39pm

Gary thinks that huey will be punishing the organisers of the comp for some time, after they chose not to run on that epic 4-Gary day about a year ago.

curl's picture
curl's picture
curl Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 12:01pm

Don’t think the size will be there for the comp but they might run it anyway to make up for last year, I asked the comps instagram page how Long it goes for and the responded with 3 hours run time, with the start an hour after sunrise. So they will get low tide and we will get the incoming around midday.

curl's picture
curl's picture
curl Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 1:09pm

And an hour after I said it’s a no go it’s called on!

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 2:22pm

Yeah Gary Indiana looks unreal.

dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 5:24pm

I just wasted 6 minutes of my life. I should've gone straight to the comments. Gary is a shithole

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 10:54pm

Perhaps try Cleveland:

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Monday, 16 Jul 2018 at 9:35pm

am i the only one having trouble with the point nepean wave boy data only showing 6 hr history at 30 min intervals for the last 3 days...:(

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 7:30am

Emailed them last week and they got the graph back online, but will see if they can bring it back to what it used to be.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 8:31am

Amazing satellite verification of the secondary severe low..

luca12's picture
luca12's picture
luca12 Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 9:23am

can you explain this ? thanks.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 9:47am

The weather models forecast the strength and intensity of weather systems all day every day. Sometimes what actually happens isn't as forecast, and to help verify how strong the storm got, there are satellites observing the ocean sea state and inferring what the actual surface wind speeds are.

The image above is confirmation of the strength of the low which I posted the image of in the notes, posted again here below..

What we're looking at is wind strength.

Those purple triangle flags are 50kt (storm-force) winds and the ones with the half length barb as well 55kt, and full length barb (which there are a couple) 60kts.

So we've got confirmation of the forecast storm strength which helps bring confidence to my forecast.

luca12's picture
luca12's picture
luca12 Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 9:54am

Thanks for the info mate, makes sense!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 10:59am

So is South Channel gonna get its vein blown off for like what seems like the 5th time this year?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 11:07am

Haha looks it. Hold in there!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 11:11am

Jeez I hope Gary G doesn’t see this comment

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 11:14am

Hahah oh dear, no comment needed.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 10:32pm

Gary is always watching. Especially when there's the prospect of a blown vein.

tux's picture
tux's picture
tux Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 11:47am

Hi Craig from the looks of it the period has come in from 20s late Wednesday to about 8ft @ 19s Wednesday and Thursday early is 9ft @ 18s...which one do you think is better variable to estimate size height or period? When I saw the 20s I nearly had to change my pants..the longest period I have seen in about the last 5 years is 5ft@18sec and that was the afternoon that Richie Vas and the film crew got detonated at Jarosite...the two biggest swells of last year were 17s I think but with 10ft of swell

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 11:57am

It's too hard to discern from the raw model data due to the variety of different swells and the way Wave Watch is stuggling to handle each one individually.

It's combining lots of different swells, and can't really be compared to previous events as there's no pure long-period groundswell signal to compare with.

Also our models have much more size through Bass Strait than 8/9ft ie 3m or so.

tux's picture
tux's picture
tux Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 12:00pm

Yeah probably not a good day to get a ferry to Tasmania

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 12:39pm

Green light for the comp Thursday 19th. Final call on the day

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 12:44pm

Keeping an eye on these notes possibly? Thursday is the biggest of the period.

Larry Lee's picture
Larry Lee's picture
Larry Lee Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 1:30pm

Cape du Couedic and Sorell building nicely . A 20 sec period is not the swell they are after . Regardless it could be fun . Tides and period will make them wish they didn't put Bells in the comp title .
South Channel wouldn't be the first to be blown out over there . Gary's obviously busy waxing up for the big show .

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 10:34pm

Thanks Larry, nice to know there's still a few of us likeminded individuals that know what 'the big show' is.

Those squares in law enforcement call it 'indecent assault' and it's a blight on Gary's artistic tendencies.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Tuesday, 17 Jul 2018 at 11:45pm

I’m tipping that subscribers to Gary’s web cam won’t be the only punters surprised by an early climax in swell this week .
Luckily Huey has a fair stamina not unlike a Young Gary in his prime . And a rebuild or second coming may outstrip expectation .
Ghosting is all the rage these days , but old lessons of old men who cried wolf will remain relevant .

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 7:10am

C'mon, don't be so ambiguous Southey! Got some more specifics? Always love to hear what others think (ahead of the fact, of course).

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 9:39am

Ben . I wasn’t pointing at you guys or your reports . More so the bells comp boys .
As for my thoughts , i’d Aired them too many times here before .
The entire Southern Ocean and South Atlantic has been active for weeks , I haven’t got time to analyse timing and forward speeds . I’m just calling that we will see a swell within the next week that will outdo expectations .

luca12's picture
luca12's picture
luca12 Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 6:56am

Peak period this morning is reading 22s can’t remember the last time I saw that!!

luca12's picture
luca12's picture
luca12 Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 7:08am

Now it’s bsvk to 15s think the bouy is cooked

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 7:12am

Just means it's a faint signal (leading edge). Peak wave period is associated with the peak swell energy (of which there are several swell trains in the water at the moment, not just the super long period energy).

FWIW, we often see the Pt Nepean buoy reach 24-25 seconds through the year during extraordinary swell systems. But.. that doesn't mean much unless the swell source is within range of our coast.

luca12's picture
luca12's picture
luca12 Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 8:08am

So it isn't giving an indicator on what could be a long period swell on its way?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 8:17am

The long-period swell energy is in the water, but without much size. The bulk of long-period energy is due later today, with a secondary pulse tomorrow.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 7:51am

anticipation building, hope they score for the bells comp tomorrow, was keen to check it out but I'd rather take advantage of some novelty breaks

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 18 Jul 2018 at 9:56am

So if it’s 8ft they’re going to run this thing?