Craig

Forgettable end to the week, much better weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday, spots handling the size east of Melbourne Saturday, exposed beaches east of Melbourne Sunday afternoon, Surf Coast from mid-next week

Recap

Great waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with all day offshore winds and surf holding around 3-4ft across the magnets, improving on the beaches into the afternoon.

 

A late arvo dash, produced the goods! ... MIA @james_harmes4 @jessebhogan

A post shared by Nathan Jones (@nathan2jones) on

This morning a reinforcing long-period swell has kept the swell up around a similar size with a touch more north in the winds, favouring most locations, while the beaches east of Melbourne are also open for business with the more favourable winds.

We'll see the swell ease slowly through the afternoon as winds hold from the N'th on the Surf Coast and tend N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula.

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This week and weekend (Jul 12 - 16)

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This morning's reinforcing long-period SW groundswell is expected to ease slowly this afternoon, dropping further through tomorrow as winds go a little funky.

The Surf Coast should ease from 2-3ft at magnets and the 4ft range on the Mornington Peninsula. A surface trough lingering to our east will retro-grade west through Bass Strait through the day, bringing a S/SE change, but early morning we're likely to see variable winds across both locations.

There's a slim chance this variable wind will be more onshore than offshore, but keep an eye on the local winds observations and dawn reports for a window of OK conditions.

Friday is now looking like a lay day with lingering but easing onshore SW winds as the surface trough pushes back east and develops into a Tasman Low and a low point in swell activity.

Moving onto the weekend and our great new long-period SW groundswell with favourable winds is still on track.

Yesterday an intense polar low formed south-southwest of WA and satellite observations have already picked up an impressive stationary fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW-SW winds in our swell window.

This low is now moving slowly east and will continue to generate a fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds through today, before weakening south-west of Tassie through tomorrow.

A moderate to large and long-period SW groundswell will be produced, with a possible increase seen on dark Friday (but with onshore winds), while a peak is expected Saturday morning.

The Surf Coast looks to offer strong 4-5ft+ sets at magnets through the morning, easing slowly through the day, dropping back from 3ft on the sets early Sunday. The Mornington Peninsula will be solid and come in at 6-8ft on the sets, easing back from 4-5ft Sunday morning.

We'll see winds improve into Saturday as an approaching surface trough moving in from the west brings light N/NW breezes that look to tend variable into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula is likely to see light N'ly winds, but without any real strength in the offshore breezes, we may see a bit of lump and less than perfect conditions across both coasts through the day.

Sunday looks good with a touch more strength to the offshore breezes, likely N/NW-N most of the day on the Surf Coast and hopefully improving conditions across the Mornington Peninsula through the afternoon.

Next week onwards (Jul 16 onwards)

We've looking at small clean leftovers on the Surf Coast Monday, poor to the east with gusty NW winds, but from Tuesday we've got a very active forecast period for the Surf Coast.

A strong node of the Long Wave Trough developing in the south-east Indian Ocean and pushing slowly east will bring with it back to back winter calibre storms and large surf from Tuesday through Thursday at this stage.

The models are still moving around regarding the exact nature of this progression so check back here Friday for a much clearer idea on the individual swell pulses and local winds.

Comments

happy's picture
happy's picture
happy commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 1:13pm

Will this go the same way as the WSL Facebook disaster ?? - I hope not.

In commercial reality things are changing, I get it, in terms of customers there needs to be a real or perceived benefit for charging for something that has been free, and free for a long time and I just don't see it. I look at various sites, mainly BOM but also coastal watch and others - lets face it - surf forecasting is not easy and not exact and now days the best surfs are when the surf forecasters get it wrong - its pumping and it takes a while for others to check.

I have no interest in Cameras around me, sometimes fun to look at in other places if its firing.

I find the forecasters notes of value particularly when travelling away from home, in fact I only just found out that it was now a fee service due to travel this weekend.

At $100 a year its not for me at the moment but I welcome this as an opportunity to have less crowds at my local as tight ass city folk will not be planning days out, not until somebody else comes up with the next free version.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 2:32pm

I hope vic local is not a dees supporter.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 2:33pm

Haha.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 12 Jul 2018 at 5:32pm

Nope. And fucking instagramming good surf photos to 31K followers and telling them the location is just fucking stupid. The only time putting sessions on social media is acceptable is when the waves are monstrous and only a few can get out.

brownhornet's picture
brownhornet's picture
brownhornet commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 4:13pm

BOM

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 4:27pm

still tossing up whether to part with the cash but support the decision to put the various bits and pieces behind the paywall given the justifications and clear communication on this. and the value of them. anyway - small bit of feedback. when entering the forecast notes from the links in the 'latest comments' sidebar, the location of the detailed forecast is blurred so you can't see what the discussion is about (this one for e.g. - is it Vicco, Sydney, Nth NSW, WA?) not a big deal and not an issue if you go in from the menus but a little feedback for you. thanks for the great site

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 5:09pm

Thanks mate, we'll take a look to see if we can better label it.

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 6:09pm

Agree with the travel point. When i'm going up north the notes are handy as i'm not as confident in knowing what given wind/swell will produce at spot X. Around my local area all i need is the 7 day willyweather wind and swell which always does the trick. I came on here to read the notes if a big swell is on the forecast and also read comments as it gets closer. I wont be subscribing. Totally understand trying to get some cash out of a business after this long in the game. Hopefully it works out for you. Could see it going either way after the way it feels to use the site now after all this 'pay wall' talk.
Few thoughts.
What happens if you dont get many subscribers and your visit numbers go way down?
What happens when a competitor just provides the same services for free or allot less?
There is nothing to stop people just copy and pasting this where ever they want. Facebook, insta screen shots, email, etc etc etc. Might already be happening...

Wasnt the advertising working out? I cant use the app without having to move through about 5 adds a time. This site has allot of real estate that could be better used.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 6:43pm

Ron, I've been around on the web for a long while so I intimately understand all of the permutations and possibilities in running an online business. Swellnet is not the first website to implement a paywall, and all of the hurdles we have already encountered - and have yet to encounter - have likely been experienced by someone else first (of which their experiences have been documented).

So, the reaction thus far is certainly very close to what was expected.

As for questions like "What happens when a competitor just provides the same services for free or allot less?" - well, we're seeing the effects of such a strategy play out in front of us right now - what you've described has been happening for a very long time.

In short: any current or future competitor who wants to provide this level of service is going to have to invest an extraordinary amount of money (1) working out how to do it, (2) building a platform to provide the service, (3) building an audience and gaining their trust and respect, (4) monetising the entire shebang.

Runing a surf website looks easy from the outside, and sure - there are plenty of people who can perhaps do one or two of the above items - but it's incredibly difficult to do everything really well. I've seen no less than a couple of dozen surf sites come and go over the last sixteen years. Some last a few weeks, some a few months, and some many years.

But there's one common denominator between everyone, and that is: we've all got bills to pay. Some people have big bills, others have small bills. Some have sufficient financial resources to defer paying their bills for a long time. But everyone's business eventually has to make financial sense.

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 7:15pm

all very interesting points. It’s moments like these that get me thinking... were there a few peelers at Lorne this arvo?

Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 9:46pm

You're a smartarse. I respect that. 10 points, well played.

Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 9:51pm

Have said it before, will say it again: the amount of time you guys – a very small team – put into user feedback, replying to comments, being endlessly patient with all us whingers etc ... plus the amount of genuine meteorological and surf forecasting expertise you have, make this a service well worth a couple of coffees a month. If you're not fortunate enough to live within half an hour of a look at the beach, Swellnet is basically essential.

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 10:23pm

Good point re. people who dont live at the beach. I used to live in Melb and would probably subscribe if i still did. Living on the coast and surfing every day makes it allot easier to learn to forecast your area.

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 10:27pm

Makes sense Ben. Interesting as an observer watching it all change. Most sites are free one day, not the next and there is no interaction. Hearing from you guys regularly goes a long way with the punters.

Mick Evans 69's picture
Mick Evans 69's picture
Mick Evans 69 commented Wednesday, 11 Jul 2018 at 7:32pm

Good job swell net I don't mind paying for a good forecast that's helps me too score waves when it's good and work when the waves are crap as,for the crowds have a cup of concrete

drchris's picture
drchris's picture
drchris commented Thursday, 12 Jul 2018 at 10:57pm

Hey Ben looking a chance for the 50yr storm comp at bells next week?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 9:12am

Some pretty sizeable action on the way!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 9:10am

Cool fog captured by our Phillip Island reporter this morning..

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 9:50am

VicLocal you keen to throw out a forecast for next wed/thur for Bells?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 11:26am

That would be no goofy foot. Long range forecasting and social media just brings crowds.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 11:46am

Fair call.
Don’t think 8ft windy cross shore will be busy tho

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 11:48am

Well in that case, dont forget # us when you put your instagram post up VL. I dont have instagram but you can #nickbone nonetheless

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 12:42pm

Here's some hash tagging for you nickbone. #don'tbail #takesetsontheheadratherthanpaddlingfortheshoulder #lookleft #don'tsnake #don'tdropin #beginnersdon'tbelongatwinki #don'tringmateswhenit'spumping #don'tsookifsomeonedropsinonyouifyoutakethefirstwavecomingaroundthebutton

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 12:52pm

Can't argue with any of that.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 12:54pm

Forgot to mention #don'tpushsectionsdownontheguyupandriding

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 4:14pm

#youralrightviclocaldontlettheworldtellyouotherwisehappyfridaypal

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