Fun mornings on the Surf Coast, beaches Sunday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd April)
Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday morning, Surf Coast Saturday morning, exposed beaches Sunday
Recap
Pumping waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with a new pulse of W/SW groundswell and 4-5ft+ sets across magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula was large and bumpy.
The swell eased through the day, back to 3ft to occasionally 4ft at magnets this morning on the Surf Coast with great conditions again, cleaner to the east but still large to 5-6ft on the exposed beaches. Conditions should remain clean until late morning/midday before sea breezes kick in.
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This week and weekend (Apr 5 - 8)
Later today and tomorrow morning we should see some longer-period reinforcing W/SW groundswell filling in, but I'm only expecting this swell to offer slightly more size on what we're seeing this morning.
The source of this energy is a mix of very distant groundswell from a Heard Island low, and westerly fetches moving through our swell window earlier this week, on the tail of the storms generating Monday/Tuesday's swells.
The Surf Coast should see 3-4ft waves across most breaks, with rare bigger sets at magnets, with 6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. An easing trend is due through the day, further Friday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively.
Conditions will be great on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning and favourable to the east with a variable morning breeze (tending light NW) before sea breezes develop.
Friday looks similar with that slight NW tenancy in the wind ahead of sea breezes.
Moving into the weekend, and a small bump in mid-period SW swell is expected, generated by a weak though slow moving front that's currently south of WA.
A fetch of strong W/SW winds will hardly produce any significant swell, but magnets on the Surf Coast are due to persist around 2ft to occasionally 3ft, with 4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula and a morning W/NW-NW wind will favour the Surf Coast.
The exposed beaches will be best on Sunday as the swell eases under a N/NE offshore.
Next week onwards (Apr 9 onwards)
Moving into early next week the swell will become small to tiny, but a strong frontal progression firing up towards WA over the weekend is due to generate some new W/SW groundswell later Wednesday/Thursday, but more on this Friday.
Comments
Ive brought this up numerous times but i feel like this is slightly different.
So this morning was just a light West on the back beach. Same on the bay.
Im working right next to Portsea pier and about a hour ago, a breeze has kicked up from the North. Flags are blowing, trees are moving.
Now, why can this breeze not make it over a couple of K's of land onto the back beaches? Its if anything light South. Is it something to do with the synoptic setup/gradient winds? Im trying to remember that seabreeze article. I.e the Northerly breeze is is in line with gradient winds/synoptics enough too keep what i assume is a seabreeze trying to nose in?
Basically just want too know how we can have two different winds in such proximity.
Light synoptic winds means you'll see terrestrial influences more easily, so with ocean water temps around 18.5 degrees and land temps just starting to nudge 19 degrees, I suspect it's a localised sea breeze effect. And, because the Peninsula is exactly that - "a piece of land surrounded by water" - this means the sea breeze can originate from many directions. Hence why they don't always make it from one side of the Peninsula to the other.
These kinds of localised sea breezes are shallow forces and therefore lose a lot of their energy once they encounter the frictional effects of the mainland. We see this effect elsewhere too (i.e. hence why the Terrey Hills AWS is useless for measuring winds on the Northern Beaches, despite being just a couple of kays inland).
But i cant understand what could possibly have any influence. Peninsula is random little hills with the highest generally the dune line hills on the back beaches from pretty much Portsea to Gunna, then you get too the Cape Schank etc which gets higher. Shouldnt they have more influence like the Otways, although rather smaller, with a more East direction flowing down them?
Nuthin to do with downslope winds (i.e. height or steepness of land).. sea breezes are just pressure related (increasing air temps over land = dropping air pressure).
Maybe it’s all air conditioners in the Portsea mansions creating a localized blocking pattern?
I think you’re on to something here Chris. I’m over on the west coast and I can hear the collective hum of air conditioners running and the sound is originating from the east. Winds have been fine over here
nah, there was the mass exodus on Monday arvo..