Poor weekend, better winds but minimal swell next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 2nd February)

Best Days: Tuesday and Wednesday morning exposed beaches

Recap

A bit more size yesterday but no quality again with gusty onshore winds, similar this morning with a small fading swell.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (Feb 2 – 9)

Looking at the weekend, and our possible window of cleaner conditions tomorrow morning is now off the cards.

A moderate to fresh E/SE breeze is expected all morning, creating poor conditions, though the swell expected to increase slightly tomorrow is average in any case. This S/SW energy should build to 2ft across the Surf Coast through the middle of the day (mixed in with a south-east windswell) with 3ft to occasional 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell will ease through Sunday with slightly weaker SE tending S/SW winds, that may if we're lucky tend variable through the morning. Even so, there'll be limited quality surfing options.

Sunday's shift to S/SW winds will be related to a weak front pushing up past the south-east corner of a strong High in the Bight.

This will keep average S'ly winds lingering across the state into Monday morning, though we may see these tend more variable across some locations through the morning but with no decent swell.

Into the afternoon some small S/SW swell is expected, generated by a late forming polar frontal progression south-southwest of Tassie on the weekend.

This swell should hold into Tuesday morning with small 1-2ft sets expected on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft waves to the east with a more favourable E/NE breeze.

Wednesday will be even cleaner under a NE'ly, but tiny on the Surf Coast and small on the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term we should see a slow moving mid-latitude frontal progression pushing towards WA, generating some good W-W/SW groundswell for Friday/Saturday possibly followed by SW energy, but winds look gusty out of the east. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!

Comments

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 2 Feb 2018 at 10:21am

Sadface Gary

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 2 Feb 2018 at 11:10am

I will settle for a little swell increase tomorrow. Can i get the chance of this in percentile form? :)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 2 Feb 2018 at 11:21am

Geez it's not a great swell at all. Look for it mid-late morning.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 2 Feb 2018 at 11:26am

Well it gives a little understanding of what this week has been like. Desperate times. Desperate measures.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 2 Feb 2018 at 12:46pm

About 5/8ths of fuck all

(or .0000001%)