Good Surf Coast tomorrow, beaches Sunday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th August)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, exposed beaches Sunday, keen surfers Surf Coast Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning
Tiny to flat conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday with inconsistent 1-2ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, but a strong N'ly wind made it very tricky to surf.
Today has started as expected with tiny waves on the Surf Coast under a W/NW breeze, with poor onshore waves to the east.
A good new W/SW swell is starting to show on the coast, generated by a broad and vigorous mid-latitude front pushing towards us yesterday and this morning. We'll see sets reaching 3ft across the Surf Coast into the afternoon with 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula as winds persist from the W/NW. Keep an eye on the surfcams for indications of this new swell.
This weekend and next week (Aug 12 - 18)
This afternoon's increase in W/SW swell is expected to peak overnight/early tomorrow morning, and if it weren't under dark we'd see 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ waves to the east.
The secondary intense front pushing in over the active sea state this afternoon and evening has been downgraded a little, with just a quick burst of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds due to be projected through our western swell window.
With this the size of tomorrow morning's pulse has been downgraded a touch.
We're now looking at good fun 4ft sets across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast through the morning, easing into the afternoon and further from 2-3ft Sunday.
The Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets in the morning, easing through the day and further from 4-5ft Sunday.
Conditions will be great on the Surf Coast tomorrow with a W/NW offshore persisting all day, while Sunday looks fun on the beaches with N'ly offshore winds and easing surf.
Come Monday the surf will become tiny on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula will be average with small to tiny waves and a N/NW breeze.
Next week's tricky outlook is still that, with a broad low stalling south-west of WA generating multiple fetches of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds unfavourably through our western swell window.
This won't be favourable at all for the Surf Coast, while winds from the NW-W/NW won't favour the Mornington Peninsula which will pick up some fun sized surf.
At this stage the best pulse of W'ly swell is due to fill in Tuesday, building to 2ft to possibly 3ft into the afternoon at magnets on the Surf Coast, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning. The Mornington Peninsula should see larger 4-6ft sets, but a fresh N/NW tending NW breeze Tuesday and W/NW winds Wednesday will only favour the Surf Coast.
We'll see the mid-latitude system moving east and across us Wednesday next week, producing a moderate sized W/SW swell through the end of the week with strong W/NW winds. Beyond this there's nothing too significant on the cards, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!