Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, both coasts Wednesday

Recap

Good waves across the Surf Coast all day yesterday with 3-4ft sets on the reefs and persistent offshore winds. To the east conditions were bumpier and not too attractive.

Overnight the swell has eased but we've still got 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast with light offshore winds and the Mornington Peninsula is fun with clean 3-4ft sets. Winds should remain favourable all day as the swell continues to ease.

This weekend (Jul 8 - 9)

As talked about through the week, surfing options will be limited through tomorrow with a new W/SW swell being tiny on the Surf Coast and the Mornington Peninsula bumpy with a moderate to fresh NW tending W/NW breeze.

Swell magnets on the Surf Coast may see the odd 1-2ft set, but Sunday is the day to surf.

During this week a strong polar front fired up around the Heard Island region, with an initial pre-frontal fetch of NW gales setting up a small active sea state for a burst of stronger gale to severe-gale W/SW winds to move over. There were even a couple of 50kt barbs registered as shown in the picture right.

This system has since weakened but a good inconsistent and long-period SW groundswell is now heading towards us, with it due to arrive later Saturday, peaking Sunday morning to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast (4ft at Bells and Winki) with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions are looking great all day for the Surf Coast with a fresh NW tending W/NW breeze as a small trough passes across us.

Next week onwards (Jul 10 - 14)

Sunday's swell will ease temporarily Monday morning, but not below 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula head of a new SW swell building into the afternoon.

A broad but relatively weak polar front will project strong W/SW winds towards us over the weekend, passing across Tasmania early Monday morning.

We should see the swell kick back to 3ft+ later in the day on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, peaking to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast Tuesday and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds look great for the Surf Coast Monday with a NW tending W'ly breeze, while a shallow change moving through overnight will leave lighter NW winds into Tuesday morning, tending variable into the afternoon.

The Mornington Peninsula will likely see good conditions into the afternoon as winds tend variable.

Wednesday looks great on the Mornington Peninsula with fun sized and easing waves along with a N/NE breeze.

Longer term, a flurry of strong polar frontal activity south-west of WA should generate some new inconsistent W/SW groundswell for later in the week/next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!