Lotsa large swells for Victoria

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Victoria Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th March)

Best Days: Tues: small waves in Torquay. Wed: solid building swells in Torquay with mainly good winds, reaching a large peak Thurs though with a threat of onshores. Great options in Western Port these days. Fri: solid but easing swells, again best suited to the Surf Coast and Western Port. Sat/Sun: another large swell, this time more SW thru' S/SW with likely light winds. 

Recap: Long period swell energy built slowly all weekend and winds remained generally favourable for the open beaches Surf size peaked around the 2-3ft mark across the Surf Coast with 4-6ft sets east of Melbourne. The swell is less consistent today but we are seeing strengthening N’ly winds ahead of a W’ly change. 

This week (Mar 28 - 31)

We’re still on track for a very large, powerful swell to arrive mid-late week. But there are several stages of swell ahead and with a tricky wind outlook we need to hone into the specifics.

The developing frontal progression through the Southern Ocean is broad, and encompasses a couple of surface low pressure centres. The first is a cut-off low in the Bight, which is crossing the SA coast right now and will reach us later today. However, this system is riding high in the Bight and its swell generating fetch is tucked up tight inside Victoria’s acute western swell window. If anything, much of the regional swell (i.e. outside Cape Otway) will have a touch of W/NW. 

This means that although sizeable swells will develop across exposed oceans, we’re going to see much smaller surf across the central Victorian coast - more so Torquay than anywhere else, and this is a shame as winds will be ideal for this region as the swell builds through Tuesday. Reliable reefs across this region may see stray 2-3ft sets but for the most part I’m not expecting anything appreciable west of Melbourne. A building trend is expected through the day so anticipate smaller surf early morning.

East of Melbourne, winds won’t be conducive for the open beaches on Tuesday (which will be to big anyway) yet the swell will probably be too west and slightly too small for anything amazing inside Western Port (for which surface conditions will also be very good).
 
While this is happening, a deep polar low SW of Western Australia will have have extended a broad fetch to merge with the cut off low in the Bight, and the resulting swell generating system looks to be a doozy - a couple of thousand kilometres of W thru SW gales across the Southern Ocean.

Initially, the early stages will also have a strong westerly component and this will again limit size in Torquay though we’ll see a strong building trend through Wednesday

The real juice will kick in on Thursday; this energy will be sourced from the polar low itself which will be trailing at the back end of the fetch though will be working on the active sea state generated by three days of westerly gales prior. 

I think that our surf model is undercalling this event, though it’s worth noting that almost all of the swell production occurs west of 130E as the fronts work their way around a slow moving node of the Long Wave Trough (winds east of this point have to much north in their direction to benefit Victoria). 

For reference, this point is approximately inline longitudinally with the WA/SA border, so we do need to factor in swell decay from this point (some 1200-1500km). However the sheer breadth and length of the fetch should override some of the travel deficiencies. 

The other issue this week is that whilst Wednesday’s steady increase will be accompanied by mainly freshening NW winds as a front approaches from the west, we are looking at a SW wind change some time on Thursday morning. Fortunately, the models are suggesting only moderate to fresh strength will trail the change and this should allow for some local topographical influence across the Surf Coast, swinging the early morning breeze around to the W or even W/NW here. Other coasts won't fare as well though.

And onshores are certainly a threat for Thursday

So, size? Wednesday should kick off in the 3ft range across the Surf Coast (a mix of new and leftover swell) but then build towards 5-6ft by the end of the day. Wednesday is probably the safest bet overall as we’re looking at a longer window of offshore winds. 

Thursday should kick up another notch with more consistency as the swell swings a little more SW, with bomb sets occasionally pushing 6-8ft at reliable swell magnets west of Melbourne (generally 5-6ft across most open Torquay beaches and reefs). As mentioned earlier, a brief window of W/NW winds are possible but otherwise expect moderate SW winds throughout the day.

East of Melbourne will see much larger surf (building to 10-12ft by Thursday) so obviously Western Port will be a much better choice these days. However bear in mind that Wednesday morning may be a little undersized in this neck of the woods. 

We’ll then finish the week off on Friday with large but steadily easing swells with lighter W’ly winds, probably NW across the Surf Coast. Early sets should manage 4-6ft though it’ll likely be down to 3-4ft by the end of the day

Again, Western Port should also be a great option on Friday for surfers east of Melbourne.

This weekend (Apr 1 - 2)

The interesting thing about this week’s upcoming swell on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday is that it'll probably be a distraction, and many people many not realise that there’s a likely better swell inbound for the weekend. So don’t over-froth too hard over the coming days as there’s more to come.

A deepening polar low is expected to reach maturity well south of WA (off the Ice Shelf) from late Wednesday through Thursday, and wind strengths are likely to max out in the 60kt+ range (check the MSLP and 10m wind chart below!). Whilst smaller in length and size than the mid-week system, the more southern AND eastern position of this low means that the resulting swell will have more south in direction (i.e. SW tending S/SW) across Victorian beaches. This should narrow the possible size range between the Surf Coast and the East Coast (read: slightly bigger waves than normal for Torquay). 

Additionally, it looks like it’ll remain at relatively low latitudes, which is good as it’ll ensure locally light winds as the swell reaches the mainland.

At this stage we can expect long period forerunners reaching the coast on Saturday morning with a rapid increase in size throughout the day. Reliable Surf Coast reefs should nudge 6-8ft by the late afternoon if the models don't significantly downgrade; 8-10ft surf is likely east of Melbourne. 

Wave heights will then ease steadily through Sunday - so it's shaping up to deliver another morning of likely large surf in Torquay.

As for winds, its looking to be pretty good under a relatively weak synoptic flow, offering light variable airstreams - though ‘variable’ implies any direction, which could be onshore. I’ll have more idea on this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Apr 3 onwards)

It’s a long time away but there are more fronts stacking up in the Southern Ocean so the swell potential for the second half of next week is also very good for Victoria. 

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Monday, 27 Mar 2017 at 11:11am

So. Much. Detail.

Excellent reading while sit in the pyshio hoping ill be right for the weekend.

Veiny's picture
Veiny's picture
Veiny Monday, 27 Mar 2017 at 11:12am

Nice forrecast. Cheers

Deebonator's picture
Deebonator's picture
Deebonator Monday, 27 Mar 2017 at 5:47pm

My froffometer just blew up!!
Thanks a lot Thermals.

crustt's picture
crustt's picture
crustt Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 7:29am

Just had a look at the observed surf reports, Torquay is logged in at 6:45 and all the others a few minutes later, first light is at 7:10. All these reports appear to be observed in the dark on a cloudy morning, how is this done? I walk the dog on the beach in the early morning but couldn't tell if it was 2ft or 4ft before first light, would be "enlightening" to hear how these guys do it.:)

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 8:38am

The 'dawn' reports are indeed prepped in the dark but are deduced from overnight data: models, wave buoys, wind readings. They're designed to give surfers a head start in the dark and inform them of any unexpected changes before the morning reports come online.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 8:45am

So an educated guess really?

More often than not it's pretty accurate though which is a good sign

crustt's picture
crustt's picture
crustt Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 8:44am

A forecast. :D

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 8:57am

Not quite 'cos they use real time data.

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 7:37am

Via the surfcams from the comfort of their bed I assume

crustt's picture
crustt's picture
crustt Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 8:24am

In the dark??

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 8:57am

Actually, 'First Light' isn't the first visible light that's useful for surf reporters. 

First Light is also known as "Civil Twilight", however "Nautical Twilight" is another 30 mins before that, and I find that somewhere between the two offers enough light to view the surf (unless cloud cover is heavy to the east).

Take for example Perth this morning - First Light isn't until 6:01am (in about 5 minutes time). But here's an image from our Scarborough surfcam, recorded fifteen minutes prior to First Light (at 5:46am).

 

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:08pm

This is interesting.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:27pm

Interesting...

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:08am

Also, beaches that face east will be slightly more visible in the pre-dawn light than south or west facing beaches (i.e. Portsea, or Scarborough), because of the orientation to the source of the light.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 10:20am

Good example this morning of large Southern Ocean swells not neccessarily translating into meaningful surf across Victorian beaches.

Cape Sorell is seeing Hsig values of 4.5m with Hmax up to 8.5m, but there's hardly any new swell in Torquay - it's a slow 2ft. This is because of the W/NW swell direction (and large windswell contamination at the buoy - Cape Sorell weather station is gusting 29kts NW).

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 12:24pm

Hi Crag, Just wanted to point out a small error in your forecast. In the first line you wrote 'Lotsa large swells for Victoria...', when in fact it should be written as 'Lot's of large swells for Victoria...'. Thank's Crag, keep up the great work.

Jono123's picture
Jono123's picture
Jono123 Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:07pm

You dont know what your talking about Gary. Why dont you focus on your own punctuation instead of picking apart Craigs forecast's for minor grammatical error's?

Your telling him that he should have written 'Lot's of large swells for Victoria...' Lot's does not need an apostrophe. Apostrophes are either used to signal a missing letter in a contraction (eg: can not = can't) or to indicate possession (eg: Mick's farm- The farm belongs to Mick).

Get you're fact's straight before you comment on hear next time mate!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:09pm

Hear hear jono

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Wednesday, 29 Mar 2017 at 1:46am

Nice one Jono.

"Get you're facts straight" is vintage.

The original and the best Gary G also appreciates correct grammar, but Gary's G-Sense (TM) can't shake the feeling that the superfluous apostrophe in the other Gary's 'Lot's' was part of the gag...

gannet's picture
gannet's picture
gannet Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 12:38pm

Lots of large swell's for Victoria

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 1:06pm

Back to school for you.

gannet's picture
gannet's picture
gannet Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 4:46pm

No, back to s'chool for ewe

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 2:17pm

Anyone seen the wams for 12th of April which coincides for the 1st day of the waiting period for Bells if that happens apart from the winds will be bloody massive

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 2:50pm

Mate that's a long time away, and we have two very significant swells prior to then that haven't eventuated yet.

Let's concentrate on the short term first!

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:53pm

Where did Crag go?

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:26pm

Lots of large swells for vicco ! Is that correct jonny123 ?

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:42pm

Well actually its 'Vicco'. Vicco is a proper noun, so it's first letter should be capitalised.

Jono123's picture
Jono123's picture
Jono123 Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:56pm

Well actually Gary, all nouns need capitals, not just the 'proper' ones.

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Tuesday, 28 Mar 2017 at 9:31pm

Winkis is going to have barrels for days! Just got the latest GoPro and after watching that movie with Alex in Alaska I'm so going to jave to get one of those mouth mount things. They look so good. I've noticed that he had both his arms out in front of him so definitely picking up some good tips from that clip. But sheesh, 6mm wetsuit and 7mm booties. Brrrr they can have that haha.

Hope everyone is going to get some big bombs.

Yeeewww

Ralf

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Wednesday, 29 Mar 2017 at 1:49am

Gary G is waxing up the Rhino Chasers for this one!

'Rhino Chasers' is the name that Gary has given to his pecs

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Wednesday, 29 Mar 2017 at 3:10pm

Wooooo just surfed Westernport, the north shore of the MP given the cam coverage. Inconsistent sets, lots of bump and the usual crowd lining up the shoulder. Rated maybe 4/10, but lets all froth about it!