OK weekend, winter returns next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 30th September)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, east of Melbourne Sunday, Surf Coast Monday onwards

Recap

Unfortunately yesterday's new W/SW groundswell came in under forecast with inconsistent 1-2ft sets developing across swell magnets on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, while the Mornington Peninsula was a fun 3ft or so.

Today some new W/SW swell has filled in from the severe but poorly aligned low that impacted South Australia, kicking to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast with improving conditions from early E'ly winds, and 4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds should remain light and variable through the middle of the day before a weak SW'ly is seen mid-late afternoon.

This weekend (Oct 1 - 2)

Tomorrow is quite tricky, with small amounts of SW swell from a fetch of S'ly winds on the south-west flank of the low just within out swell window.

If we're lucky we could see 2-3ft sets tomorrow morning on the Surf Coast at swell magnets, easing through the day. It's more likely to be around 2ft+, and the W/SW windswell for the afternoon has been downgraded with the change moving though being weaker. Only a small 2ft wave if that is due.

The Mornington Peninsula should see 3-5ft waves all day, but a fresh W/NW wind will favour the Surf Coast, possibly tending more NW late.

Into Sunday small fading surf is due, from 1ft to maybe 2ft on the Surf Coast, and a better 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions will be best at swell magnets east of Melbourne with a fresh N/NE tending N'ly breeze.

Next week onwards (Oct 3 onwards)

We've got plenty of W/SW swell on the cards for next week as a vigorous mid-latitude frontal progression fires up. This progression will be similar to what we see in winter, with front after front lining up across the south of the country.

Currently a strong mid-latitude front projecting towards WA should produce a very inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Monday morning.

The Surf Coast is only expected to see 2-3ft sets, with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Later in the day though some better more consistent W/SW groundswell is due from a secondary mid-latitude front pushing through the Bight and then aiming a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window Sunday evening and Monday.

This swell should peak Tuesday morning to a better 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, but another larger W/SW swell should build through the day as a stronger front projects a fetch of fetch of W/SW gales into us during the day, on top of an already active sea state, followed by another stronger front early Wednesday.

With this a further kick to 5ft on the sets is due on the Surf Coast through Tuesday afternoon, with Wednesday seeing large surf around the 6ft range, easing back slowly Thursday.

The timing and sizing of each of these pulses may move around a bit so check back here Monday for an update on this.

Winds will be best for the Surf Coast through this period with strengthening NW winds Monday, NW tending late W/SW winds Tuesday and W/NW winds Wednesday and Thursday. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 30 Sep 2016 at 11:46am

6ft easy morn pen

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 30 Sep 2016 at 11:49am

Wow, yeah the buoy has continued to spike!

Very tricky to tell how much swell would spread in from a fetch so strong but aimed away from us.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 30 Sep 2016 at 2:04pm

Yeah no shortage of swell down Gippsland way either, onshore from about 10am though. 6ft+.

VicRhino's picture
VicRhino's picture
VicRhino Friday, 30 Sep 2016 at 9:05pm

13th had 3-4ft sets just before lunchtime today. Great waves!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 1 Oct 2016 at 6:35am

Some nice waves in Torquay this morning.

A little wind affected at 13th though.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 2 Oct 2016 at 6:49am

Looking good across open beaches this morning. Still some fun small waves at 13th Beach.



And the MP's is dishing up plenty of peaky options too.


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Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Sunday, 2 Oct 2016 at 11:30am

Oh man...you guys gotta stop putting photos up when it looks so good and I'm stuck in the city for the weekend haha. How good are those banks at the MP's, looks like some sick little barrels there! Nice to know that it looks like there will be some swells next week though. Hopefully winkis will be firing again...firing like those Bulldogs yesterday haha! Yeeeew (woof woof woof!)