Exposed spots ahead of a large pumping swell

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 25th May)

Best Days: Tuesday exposed breaks, Wednesday both coasts, Thursday both coasts (east of Melbourne early), Friday Surf Coast, Saturday Surf Coast, early Sunday Surf Coast

Recap

Winds lingered onshore but with less strength into Saturday with moderate amounts of swell to 3-4ft across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and a bigger 5-6ft on the sets to the east.

Sunday was the day to surf though with clean easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and inconsistent 4-5ft (with 6ft bombs) on the Mornington Peninsula under persistent offshore winds.

Today the swell has eased back to a smaller 2ft on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week (May 26- 29)

The Surf Coast will remain clean into tomorrow but become tiny, with exposed spots like the Mornington Peninsula offering the best waves with clean easing 3ft sets.

Come Wednesday our very inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell is still on track with it due to build to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast through the day with 3ft sets at swell magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula should build to 4-5ft+.

Winds will be best for the Surf Coast and western end of the Mornington Peninsula with a fresh to strong N'ly tending N/NW breeze (N/NW all day on the Surf Coast).

Come Thursday the swell will ease, but a new similar sized and more consistent W/SW swell is due. This should be clean again under N/NW tending NW winds, although the Mornington Peninsula should see a straighter N'ly at dawn.

A late increase in stronger W/SW groundswell may be seen, linked to a large and powerful pulse due Friday.

This large W/SW groundswell has already started to be generated, with a vigorous polar low forming in the Heard Island region, producing a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds. This low will then be projected north-east towards The Bight under the influence of the Long Wave Trough while continuing to generate a fetch of severe-gale SW winds.

A large and powerful long-period W/SW groundswell will be created, filling in early Friday and peaking through the middle of the day/early afternoon.

The Surf Coast should offer 6-8ft waves, with the Mornington Peninsula coming in at 10ft+.

Winds will be best and great for the Surf Coast reefs with a fresh W/NW offshore that may persist into most of the afternoon likely from the W.

This weekend onwards (May 30 onwards)

Saturday looks excellent as the W/SW groundswell eases, while a new strong SW groundswell fills in, generated on the backside of the frontal progression pushing towards us into the end of the week.

The Surf Coast should ease from 5-6ft under offshore NW winds, while the Mornington Peninsula will be a bumpy 6-8ft or so.

Into later Sunday and Monday another large SW groundswell is due, this one generated by a secondary weaker polar front pushing up and into us Friday and Saturday, but a strong onshore change associated with the front will bring poor conditions into the afternoon when the swell kicks and Monday morning.

Size wise we're looking at another swell in the 6ft range for the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but we'll have another look at this on Wednesday.

*Also just a heads up that the Indigenous Surfing Titles will be held at Bells all week, climaxing on Friday when the big swell is due.

Comments

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Monday, 25 May 2015 at 2:15pm

Hi Craig,
Just wondering if there are good signs of swell or winds for queens birthday weekend next week starting next Friday
Cheers

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 25 May 2015 at 2:28pm

That's a little far down the track but at this stage we're probably looking at favourable winds from the N-NW with moderate amounts of inconsistent W/SW groundswell. Will have a much clearer idea on Friday though.

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog Monday, 25 May 2015 at 3:24pm

Pretty easy guys.
Reward Ben and the swellnet team for their efforts by signing up to swellnet pro.
It'll give you a 16day forecast to plan your long weekends.

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Monday, 25 May 2015 at 4:07pm

Hi Crag. Now that winter is here I'm not going to do surfing until it starts to warm up. Do you think there will be good waves at Winkis and the Boil over the Melbourne Cup long weekend or will it be too small by then?

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Tuesday, 26 May 2015 at 12:15pm

Hey Gary_G-Gerkin,

Have you ever thought about getting a 3-4 wetsuit? Its really good how warm they are now and if your still cold you can get booties and a hood. I'm still warm in my Rip Curl Flash Bomb 2-3 wetsuit but I've got the 3-4 and hood and booties for when it gets really cold. Maybe this weekend I'll need to put the new wetsuit on if its getting cold down there now haha. It seems like the best waves are always when its cold.

Hope that helps and maybe you can surf for longer in a good wetsuit

Ralf

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Tuesday, 26 May 2015 at 12:46pm

Couch tells me life's better in board shorts.

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F Monday, 25 May 2015 at 7:29pm

Who names there kid Gary gherkin. Trust you not to come out in the winter any bets your a stand up paddle boarder who drops in on people and takes every ones waves, stick to Lorne point Gary you potato. I no your trying to take the piss with your comment but I think it's a relative question as its only next week mate. I can tell that over the Melbourne cup weekend there will be quality waves at Lorne point. A solid 1 ft swell which will be good for you as your a stand up paddle boarder so you should have a good time

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Tuesday, 26 May 2015 at 12:11pm

Hey Nick.F

Probably not the best idea telling those stand up paddle boarders about that wave in Lorne. The other weekend one of them almost took me out. And its hard enough to get waves there sometimes.
Keep an eye out for Craigs forecast notes on Wednesdays and Fridays too. He is really good at getting them up then. I'm hoping that there will be some good waves on the long weekend too. I'll probably surf winki if its looking good.

Hope you get some good waves then if you are going to head down the coast too

Ralf

Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider Tuesday, 26 May 2015 at 1:15pm

Hey Ralf
Nice profile pic. I need to get a go pro but they are too expensive so I'm looking a similar one on ebay but much cheaper. You surf Winki a fair bit but I thought it was too fast for a long board. I've been out there a few times but never been able to get in front of the wave. I'm not sure if I should get a longer board. I'm keen to learn how to surf Winki properly so do you have any pointers? I am going down to Torquay this weekend after I buy a new wetsuit I'll try to get out the back as last time I got washed to boobs and had to walk back.
Thanks
Justin

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Wednesday, 27 May 2015 at 9:31am

Hey James

Few things here. First of all with the gopro, you can get the older model cameras (the gopro 3) and they are a lot cheaper than the newer ones. Sure they lack some of the new fan dangled features but the quality is still really good. They are definitely the best camera out there and you can easily get all the attachments too. I've got the nose mount on my board and you can have the camera facing forward or looking back at yourself which is super handy for seeing your barrel technique.
I guess you can surf winkis on a longer board. I've got 2 boards that I use out there. I have a 6'2 Chilli Toucan for when its smaller and a 6'6 Al Merrick DFR for when its a bit bigger so I guess I don't really surf a longer board out there so I cant really answer that one for you. There are some guys out there that I sometimes ride longer boards and some of them really charge and get sick waves and barrels.
And oh man...how bad is it when you get lots of sets waves breaking in front of you. I'm pretty good at duck diving now so I can usually get under the waves but was one time when I was really far down towards Jan Juc and it took ages to walk back along the rocks. Pretty much was the worst haha. I do swimming and go to the gym during the week to help keep my fitness up so that when its bigger I can get out through the big waves.

Hope that helps you out a bit Justim, hopefully you'll get some good waves this weekend too in your new wettie...yeeew

Ralf

Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider Wednesday, 27 May 2015 at 12:11pm

Thanks for the advice Ralf. I'm riding a mini mal but thinking getting a longboard. The only issues would be throwing the board when the sets comes as the boards are too big to hold in the white wash. It's a bad idea to do that as I've had it happen to me at Smiths Beach in Phillip Island and I had to watch the surf from the beach. Your boards are short and can fit in the car but with mine I have to put it on the roof. Some guys put their boards with tail up front and point (or nose..not sure what it is called) at the back but it looks like they are wearing their undies back the front. I always have the point facing the front and the top of my board facing the roof. This is correct?
I need to start swimming and go to the gym. At the moment the weekend surf is my only fitness but I want to get fitter.

Are you surfing this weekend and also where are you thinking of going? P.S you spelt my name wrong and you called me James but that's O.K.
Justin

Tabby10's picture
Tabby10's picture
Tabby10 Tuesday, 26 May 2015 at 2:48pm

I need to move somewhere else the surfcoast is becoming a joke

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Tuesday, 26 May 2015 at 8:59pm

:D