Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th July)

Best Days: Sun/Mon/Tues: strong S'ly swell (peaking Mon), generally good winds. 

Recap: Wave heights have held out around the 2-3ft mark Thursday and today, though the difference between the two was that Thursday saw steady E/NE swell (down from Wednesday) whilst today is seeing less consistent, easing E/NE swell and a small mix of S’ly swell too. Winds were offshore NW Thursday but have temporarily swung light N’ly in some regions this morning before NW winds return through the day.

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This weekend (July 7 - 8)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave

The outlook for Saturday has taken a dive. 

A vigorous front exiting eastern Bass Strait today has been tweaked in the latest model runs, and whilst we’re still looking at gale force winds through our acute swell window, they’re now expected to be W’ly for only a brief time - which dramatically reduces the south swell potential for our region.

As such, I’m not expecting much new swell tomorrow, just some small lingering energy from today around 1-1.5ft at open beaches. It’s still certainly possible that south swell magnets will receive a small spread of south swell throughout the day but I wouldn’t bank on much size and energy (the Hunter is the most likely coast for this).

Sunday however is still on track for a strong south swell to build through the day as a strong series of fronts push through the lower Tasman Sea. We’re looking at a broad peak through Monday but Sunday is still likely to push up into the 4-6ft range at south swell magnets by the afternoon. The strong S’ly (even S/SW) swell direction will however create a very broad range in surf size across the coast so expect much smaller waves away from these exposed beaches. Wave heights will probably be a touch undersized early morning too.

As for conditions, we’re going to see freshening winds from the WSW with a chance for a little more south in the overal direction throughout the afternoon, though on the balance it should remain pretty clean across most coasts; the Hunter being the only exception where this direction starts to become more cross-shore than other coasts. 

Next week (Just 9 onwards)

As the active node of the Long Wave Trough pushes through our south swell window, we’ll see better aligned fronts driving through the lower Tasman Sea from Sunday onwards. This will result in a peak in south swell through Monday up to 6-8ft at south facing beaches though as per usual the strong southerly swell direction will create much smaller waves elsewhere.

Conditions are looking clean with moderate offshore W/SW winds through the morning, tending SW or possibly S/SW into the afternoon though easing back if this occurs. 

Easing southerly swells are then expected from Tuesday onwards. A series of strong though much less favourably aligned lows will push through our far south swell window throughout this period, offering occasional pulse of smaller S’ly groundswell through the middle to latter part of the week.

A weak coastal trough is expected to develop around Tuesday and may linger through Wednesday, bringing about onshore winds. This may also evolve into a more significant swell generating system though it’s still early days.

Have a great weekend!