Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 17th June)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs: improving winds, solid, easing S/SE tending SE swell. Fri: solid, clean E/SE groundswell with light winds. Sat: easing swell, light winds. 

Recap: By and large, most beaches remained tiny to flat over the weekend. However, as expected we did see a small flukey southerly swell glance the coast on Sunday and this provided occasional 2-3ft waves to a handful of reliable south swell magnets across the Hunter (in fact, some beaches across the Lower Mid North Coast saw occasional 3ft+ sets). Conditions were generally clean both days with offshore winds. Today we’ve seen a developing southerly change and a building S’ly swell - early sets were 2-3ft at south facing beaches but we’re seeing more size as southerly gales push through our immediate swell window. 

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This week (June 19 - 22)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave.

Lots of swell for the next two days, but a lot of wind.

A broad Tasman Low is developing southerly gales around its western flank, inside our immediate south swell window. These gales extend across the entire width of the southern Tasman Sea, of which this region is better aligned for quality swell from the SE. Surf size will build considerably into Tuesday and hold into early Wednesday, with the swell direction shifting S’ly to S/SE. 

Wave heights should push into the 6ft to maybe 8ft range at south facing beaches (peaking Tuesday afternoon), with much smaller surf elsewhere because of the direction. However, gusty southerly winds will accompany this swell increase so the only workable options will be at very protected spots. I’m not particularly confident we’ll see many locations offering early SW winds, though it’s possible across the Northern Beaches - albeit at strength. 

Size will ease through Wednesday from 5-6ft (south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere) as the swell direction tends S/SE, and winds will abate steadily in strength, though with again only a few local SW exceptions to the S’ly regime. Expect smaller surf into the afternoon. 

A secondary fetch developing west from Cook Strait around this time will bolster a SE fetch in the southern Tasman Sea, offering moderate SE swells through the middle of the week ahead of another pulse of slightly bigger E/SE swell through Thursday afternoon and Friday.

The size and timing of the ‘bigger’ swell has been scaled back a smidge from Friday’s estimates; we’re probably looking at inconsistent surf between 3ft and maybe 5ft on Thursday, building to 4-5ft+ for Friday (a small difference, but worth pointing out) - but remaining a little inconsistent. Friday may not see the the upper end of this size range arriving until late in the day. 

More important are that winds will become light and variable both days, so conditions will be clean. So, it’s well worth pencilling in a session either Thursday or Friday - you'll do well regardless.

This weekend (June 23 - 24)

Favourable winds are expected all weekend, light and variable Saturday with a possible shallow southerly change advancing along the coast during Sunday (though models don’t anticipate much strength as yet).

However, our swell windows will have switched off under a fresh blocking pattern as of Thursday morning, which means Friday’s E/SE will ease steadily from Saturday onwards. Early morning should still offer 3-4ft sets at open beaches but we’ll be down to 2-3ft surf by the afternoon then 2ft through Sunday, possibly smaller for the afternoon.

So, make the most of Saturday's better conditions and bigger size.

Next week (June 25 onwards)

There’s a couple of southerly swells on the cards for next week but noting concrete at this stage.