Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th June)

Best Days: Thurs: peaky swell combo though with tricky winds. Fri: only small but clean. Tues/Wed: inconsistent E/NE swell. Next Thurs/Fri: good E/SE swell with offshore winds. 

Recap: Tuesday saw a decrease in E/SE swell from Monday, though early morning still managed 3-5ft sets at exposed beaches. Size eased into the afternoon and levelled out this morning around 3ft. Moderate to fresh S/SW winds Tuesday (briefly light W/SW or SW in parts) have gone light and variable today though easterlies are encroaching on the coast.

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This week (June 7 - 8)

Looks like a tricky couple of days ahead. 

A slow moving Tasman high will direct E’ly tending NE winds across Southern NSW into Thursday, though there should be pockets of light variable winds in parts in the morning. We’ve got a couple of new swell sources expected to generate waves for Thursday - they’re supposed to have arrived this afternoon, and although the afternoon surf reports didn’t note any new size, the regional buoys have trended upwards in the last few hours (in the absence of any local wind too, which lends higher credibility to the presence of swell rather than wind waves). 

The first source of swell is a small E’ly fetch exiting western Cook Strait on Monday. The second is a front that pushed through the SE corner of the Tasman Sea around the same time, with strong S’ly winds positioned off axis for our swell window but still in a favourable position for some small sideband energy. And the third swell source is today’s developing ridge through the Tasman Sea that’ll generate some short range energy.

Size should max out around 3ft+ at exposed beaches early Thursday (mainly south facing, smaller elsewhere) before easing into the afternoon and further into Friday. Don't expect a lot of consistency or quality in the surf, it'll be standard peaky beachbreak fodder for the most part, especially with those tricky winds likely to perk up from the north-east at any point.

Fortunately, the high will migrate to the east by Friday so the last day of the working week is looking clean on top with light NW winds and small peaky easing beachies. The models have all of Thursday's swells bottoming out really quickly - suggesting only a foot or so by Friday morning - but I suspect there’ll be a little more gas left in the tank for the early session, with 2ft sets at south facing beaches (perhaps a smidge bigger in the Hunter). But it will be much smaller elsewhere, and size will ease throughout the day. So make the most of the dawn patrol.
 
This weekend (June 9 - 10)

No changes to the weekend outlook with mainly small, lacklustre swells expected across all coasts. 

There may be some lingering E’ly trade swell spread about exposed beaches on Saturday but I’d be surprised if there were much more than a foot or so. Conditions will however be clean with light winds. 

A shallow S’ly change is expected to push up the coast later Saturday, and may kick up some small S’ly swell for Sunday. This is an upgrade since Monday’s model runs - so we’ll have to monitor the trend over future updates (i.e. a second upgrade tomorrow could be a precursor to yet another upgrade on Friday, etc etc) but for now it looks like whatever small south swell makes landfall on Sunday will be accompanied by fresh southerly winds. Let's peg size around a bumpy 2ft+ at south facing beaches and keep our expectations appropriately low. 

So, the short version is: you won’t be missing much this weekend. 

Next week (June 11 onwards)

The small southerly fetch developing on Sunday may evolve into a more significant trough in the Central Tasman Sea, and could generate some useful (though not especially large) SE swell early next week. Early indications are for 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches, probably with some poor accompanying winds. It’s not worth working around but as per the weekend’s notes, it is a model upgrade since Monday so should be closely monitored over the coming days as there potential it’ll be nudged a little higher by the time Friday’s notes are prepared. 

Elsewhere, we’ve still got that unseasonable tropical low developing north of New Zealand over the weekend, as mentioned on Friday. The models don’t really want to consolidate it very well, but it looks like it could be worth up to 2-3ft of inconsistent E/NE swell from Tuesday through Wednesday. 

This low is then expected to track south, with New Zealand eventually bisecting what would otherwise be a fabulous E’ly fetch. Nevertheless, with this system developing a useful swell generating system in the eastern Tasman Sea early in the week, all signs are pointing towards a stronger E/SE groundswell arriving sometime around Thursday next week, potentially around 4-5ft. At the same time, a series of strong Southern Ocean fronts are expected to concurrently ride reasonably high in latitude across the mainland, leading to an extended period of offshore winds.

So.. signs are promising for some clean groundswell later next week. Fingers crossed!