Fun SE swell later Thurs/Fri; peaky NE swell Sun morning
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st February)
Best Days: Thurs PM/Fri: fun SE swell, early light winds. Sun: brief window of light winds and a peaky NE swell. Mon/Tues/Wed: strong S'ly tending S/SE swells on the cards.
Recap: Tuesday saw an easing 3-5ft mix of E/NE swell from TC Gita, plus a building S’ly windswell, and a gusty S/SE breeze. So, conditions weren’t great. Both of these swell eased overnight, generally replaced with a mid-range SE swell (from the resulting fetch between the ridge and ex-TC Gita), with sets around 3ft+. Winds have been light and variable under 10kts across most regions.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This week (Feb 20 - 23)
Today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s on leave.
The remnants of ex-TC Gita flared up off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island yesterday, and it’s generating a new SE swell that will arrive through Thursday.
For some reason though, the models aren’t picking up this swell very well. The fetch is of a very nice length, and a respectable width; the only negative aspect is its relatively short duration in our swell window. And sure, it’s better aimed towards Northern NSW than Southern NSW, but similar systems have provided very good waves in the past - it’s a reasonably common swell source that I feel pretty comfortable with.
Anyway, with the surf model only calling 2ft from this swell (peaking midnight Thursday of 0.7m @ 11.5 seconds), perhaps it’s worth scaling back Monday’s estimate to an inconsistent 3-4ft (after all, I’m a little gun shy after the weekend). The biggest waves will probably occur late Thursday and very early Friday. The biggest risk is that this swell will peak overnight.
I do think we’ll see some nice waves across northern corners - early light winds will freshen from the NE into Thursday afternoon as the swell reaches a peak, so open beaches will become a little bumpy - but there should be some fun small waves in the morning too, leftovers from today's mid-range SE energy.
Friday should see a steady drop in size from 3-4ft down to 2-3ft during the day, and again it’ll be inconsistent with similarly freshening NE winds throughout the day (no major strength, but enough to cause a few bumps). Northern corners will be your best friend, though early morning should have pretty good options at most beaches.
This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)
Friday's SE swell will be all but gone by this weekend, and we’ll be relying on local NE windswell generated by a strengthening local fetch.
Saturday looks pretty ordinary as we’ll only have local windswell accompanying the freshening breeze, but an approaching southerly change on Sunday morning should offer a brief window of clean conditions with light offshore winds. Surf size should reach 2-3ft at NE facing beaches for the morning session, and current indications are we’ll have a few hours before the southerly reaches the Illawarra, before pushing north to Sydney by mid-morning and the Hunter coast shortly after.
Building S’ly windswells are expected in the wake of the change (after lunch) though no quality is expected. The NE swell will also ease throughout the afternoon.
Next week (Feb 26 onwards)
A strong low/front will push into the lower Tasman Sea on Sunday, driving strong southerly winds (as mentioned above) and generating a solid south swell for Monday.
The early part of the storm cycle interests me less than the latter stages, in the south-eastern Tasman Sea around Sunday and Monday, where we may see the low briefly stall and track north, whilst intensifying. This has the potential to generate a better S/SE groundswell for Tues/Wed, though we need a few more days to iron out the specifics.
Either way, we've got plenty of strong southerly energy due through the first half of next week, and winds look pretty good too.
See you Friday!
Comments
"after all, I’m a little gun shy after the weekend"...haha.
Sod that - life is too short - call it as you see it.
Funny thing is, I couldn't access the satellite imagery when I prepared these notes. Hence slightly decreasing the confidence levels.
But now it's available, and the low looks great - a really healthy fetch over 24 hours. So, I reckon we'll do well later Thursday (as long as winds behave) and early Friday as expected.
Hey Ben, did you do a hindcast for Gita? Know you mentioned you were going to, no pressure at all - just don't want to miss it as am interested. Cheers mate
Have started but not finished yet. As always, this swell coincided with a particularly busy period - not just my usual hectic work/personal schedule, but Craig’s on leave so I’ve got his forecasting work to do as well. Plus I’m catching up on a lot of the work that was sidelined last week because of this event.
Hopefully I’ll have it done soon.
cheers mate, no apology needed!
just wanted to make sure hadn't missed it.
assume it will be posted under DISPATCH in due course?
How'd southie go? Skunked and back in his hole?
Mitch no news is good news .
Mick Free , the quietest missions are often the best .
And yeah it was really shit , the vastness of the coast and my ineptitude at forecasting saw the pro's do better . ;-)
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Solid 4-5ft sets out the Island right now, new SE swell peaking early?
Solid 4-5ft with bigger sets at Cronulla right now, new SE swell peaking early?
Easy 6ft kiama
Should have stuck with my gut (aka Monday's forecast). Models have been terrible for this pulse too.
Strong sets at the Island (not a soul in the water?).
How's these lines at Manly! Easy 4-5ft sets.
Even a set breaking at the bombie!
Couple easy 6ft even 8ft sets just came through the island, washed all the way to the patch from well wide of 2nd reef...
6-8ft? Bloody hell, winds weren't any more than 30-40kts, and weren't even aimed perfectly towards our region.
Maroubra currently easily the biggest it’s been this whole swell period.
plenty of double overhead clean up sets coming through at Long Reef, and plenty of 4-5 ft waves in between.
First day Friday (although a bit inconsistent) then these last 2 days of this swell have produced really really good waves, weekend Monday Tuesday we’re a bit of a fail.
Solid in the Illawarra, holding in the morning Ben?
Unlikely at this afternoon’s size. But still good early.
Cheers mate
Middle Maroubra was 2.5 -3 times OH on the sets a couple of blokes giving it a go. I hung around the south end on my 5'10" trying to jag some and gettint cleaned up.
Double overhead at Nth Curly late arvo. On Monday morning I had my 6’8 and needed my 6’2; this arvo I had my 6’2 and needed my 6’8. Rough job, this forecasting stuff.
Easy 8 ft+ sets comin through at freshy! Saw a clean up set pushing 10. A few blokes out but the guy who just walked past with a 9ft gun and vest made me laugh!
yeah but he was probably the one laughing out the back catching the bombs!
This is insane. I thought I was going out on a limb by forecasting 2.5 times higher what the model guidance was estimating.
Surfed this morning and was 2 foot odd 3 footer. Checked Bronte straight after school at around 3 and was the odd 4 footer. Drove around checking other spots. Got back after half an hour and there were 6 footers coming through. Got out there and by the time I got around 5 there were easy 8 footers coming through, copped a flogging. After on the beach must have seen an easy 12 footer come through at a bommie around the corner. Heaps long period energy and never seen a swell pick up so fast. Died down a fair bit now tho.
When i left Maroubra round 7.30pm it was consistent 8 footers and the odd the bigger. 8-10mins between sets
yep, agree was a good 8' at least in kiama and not at south swell magnet so am sure there were some bigger sets around. big thick long lines of well organised swell.
Easy to pull those numbers out of your ass aswell ahah but would’ve been a group of about 20 of us all on the beach and we all agreed on them.
Always go out on Limb, Ben. Curly waves this morning were fun and peaky. Forecasting surf, like the weather, is always a prediction based on past events, current information gathered and the Old Gut Feel. Sometimes it throws the odd curve ball, We were here to catch it!!!
Definetly kicked hard this arvo.
there wasn't really forecasting when i was a kid
now everyone has access if you have internet
people moan sometimes and say it increases crowds
for me, it helps me plan my work so i know when best chance to get decent waves
time is the most precious of resources after all right?
yes it kinda takes away the mystery and romance
but isnt it kinda nice to have mother nature keep some of that mystery even today?
its part of what keeps me always watching the ocean
mother nature is a woman after all, she can turn it on if you're lucky and paying attention :)
Didn’t get to any open beaches but was at balmoral beach in the harbour, 2ft+ sets coming in, was almost corduroy looking out the heads at times.
A fairly well known reef inside the heads had some solid looking lefts, was side-offshore with the northeaster, no one out of course.
Checked the cam in the morning looked chill, checked again round 3 shark island and Maroubra were solid as ! couldn't believe it, forecastings a tough gig
Fucking FROTHING. Freshy was absolutely on the pump heading into the evening. Easy 8ft sets, maybe nudging more on the clean ups. Pity about the winds otherwise the bomby would have been lighting up.
Funny thing happened this afternoon I got well and truly cleaned up by
a 8-10ft set at a certain reef break and the bomb sets got bigger. Heavy
Are you sure that swell didn't come out of the low further south in the sthn ocean?
Re directed energy .
what the hell was the swell period yesterday? that was way more powerful than i was expecting. it's been a while since i was sucked back up the face and over the falls.
Can anyone confirm Fairlight reef in the harbour had waves last night?
Verdict is in then, it was effing big last night. Got home from work around 7.30 and the coogee bombies were a mess of white water, which only happens on big swells. Maroubra today, even this arvo 20 minutes ago, still solid 4', and most observers who saw it yesterday arvo said it had halved in size, maybe more. Some pulse!
Batfink - My shield of shield, will shield shit.