Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st January)

Best Days: No great days. Maybe Thurs AM for some small leftover S'ly swell with overnight S'ly winds swinging SW in a few areas. 

Recap: Saturday morning delivered fun leftover NE swell around 2-3ft with light winds for much of the day. An overnight S’ly change built S’ly swells through Sunday that peaked around 3ft+ at south swell magnets into the afternoon, though winds were moderate E/NE tending NE by this time. Today started off with a small mix of residual swells, but a small long period S’ly swell pushed through and peaked around 2-3ft at south facing beaches this afternoon. However, early light winds have swing S’ly and freshened into the afternoon so those beaches picking up the most size are bumpy.

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This week (Jan 2nd - 5th)

Still nothing amazing expected this week. We’re looking at small, flukey swell sources from distant or poorly aligned weather systems. This will maintain low surf heights for some time. 

Today’s small S’ly groundswell is expected to persist into Tuesday though ease back in size and consistency. As it is the swell isn’t particularly strong or consistent anyway, but south swell magnets may continue to see some minor workable sets somewhere in and around the 2ft mark. Conditions should be clean early with light winds and afternoon sea breezes. 

Wednesday will see a fresh southerly change push into the coast and wipe out any chance of a decent wave. As it is, the S’ly groundswell will be all but gone so we’ll be relying on building short range S’ly energy behind the change (peaking into the afternoon). Keep your expectations low.

Thursday and Friday will then see another small mid-long range S’ly groundswell glance the coast enroute to Fiji, generated by a poorly positioned low south of Tasmania today. The best we can hope for are stray 2ft sets at reliable south swell magnets (in fact, early morning may see a few bigger waves, being leftover from Wednesday afternoon’s short range pulse).

Easing S’ly winds should veer early SW on Thursday morning at a few beaches and Friday will be light and variable wind sea breezes as the swells ease back.

You're gonna need your best grovel board to finish the working week.

This weekend (Jan 6th - 7th)

There's not much surf happening this weekend.

A lack of groundswell sources means we’ll be relying on residual energy, plus some small NE windswell from a local fetch that’s expected to muscle up over the coast. This source is expected to reach a peak later Sunday with 2ft+ sets at NE swell magnets but it’ll be low quality stuff under the accompanying breeze. Prior to this it'll be smaller and weaker.

I’ll also take this opportunity flag a poorly positioned low pressure system off New Zealand’s West Coast from Thursday onwards, that’s expected to remain slow moving but ultimately not exhibit any favourable swell generating characteristics for our neck of the woods, due to the alignment of the high pressure ridge across the Southern Tasman Sea. 

Sure, this can change over the course of one or two model runs but right now its not looking like being much use to us. If it were, Sunday would be a likely arrival candidate. 

Next week (Jan 8th onwards)

Next week has some more potential for Southern NSW surfers. 

A S’ly change sliding up Southern NSW on Sunday evening will be associated with a slow moving trough that’s expected to park itself through the central/southern Tasman Sea from Monday onwards, extending a broad though not altogether strong SE fetch across its bottom flank.

The size and strength of this system doesn’t impress me but its near-stationary nature does, plus the trough axis which should create a region of offshore winds to its north. Current expectations are that this region will be north of the Hunter though future model runs may slide it more to the south. 

Either way, there is good swell potential for the first half of next week; all we need are the local winds to play ball. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update.