Building E/NE swell all week; Friday morning the pick

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th October)

Best Days: Tues: may be a low percentage mix of south/east swell with early light winds. Wed/Thurs: building E/NE swell, though local winds will spoil the party. Fri: early light winds and a peaky mix of NE and E/NE swells.  

Recap: As expected, surf conditions were pretty average over the weekend from the Hunter thru' Sydney to the Illawarra, thanks to a persistent onshore airstream. More surprisingly though was the absence of an expected long range southerly groundswell during the second half of the weekend. It actually hit the South Coast on Sunday with sets in the 3ft+ range, and despite registering at the Sydney buoy around midnight last night, wasn’t visible across Sydney beaches this morning - really only showing early afternoon (see surfcam image below, from Newcastle just after 2pm). So, this swell arrived much later than expected - an entire day - though has produced some OK beachies in conjunction with a small peaky E/NE swell.  Winds have been light onshore so it’s been OK on the surface.

New S'ly swell at Newcastle this afternoon, via our surfcam

This week (Oct 17 - Oct 20)

There’s not a lot to get excited about this week.

However, it’s worth pointing out that the global wave model is estimating a similar level of south swell into Tuesday as per what we’ve seen today - about half a metre around 14-15 seconds (see right). 

I’m not confident that this will produce anything overly special, but given the significant error margins in the weekend’s swell forecast (just been) it’s probably worth taking into account. We’re currently seeing 3ft+ sets across the Hunter and 2ft+ sets across Sydney’s south facing beaches, so I’ll peg it back a little and remove the pluses for tomorrow. Expect very long breaks between the sets. 

Also in the water on Tuesday - and in fact, also on Wednesday and Thursday - will be a steadily building E/NE swell generated by a stationary Tasman high pressure system that’s anchored a broad easterly flow into the SE Qld coast. This fetch is not especially well aligned within our swell window, but should build slowly from 2ft Tuesday morning up to 2ft+ in the afternoon and early Wednesday, then 2-3ft from late Wednesday into Thursday. This swell will provide a more uniform distribution of size across the region. 

An approaching change on Thursday will swing the primary fetch northwards into the Coral Sea, leading to a slow decrease in size into Friday from this source - but not drying up completely. And, in addition to easing E/NE swell on Friday, we’ll also see a temporary small spike in short range NE swell from a local fetch developing just off the coast on Thursday.

However the main issue for surfers this week will be accompany NE winds. They won’t be too strong but they’ll be steady enough to bump up the open beaches at times. Early mornings have a chance at seeing a little less wind but on the balance it’s looking a little dicey. 

Friday morning actually looks like the pick of the working week, though you’ll want to be quick. Both the E/NE and NE swells will be at their biggest early in the day, and we’ll see a slack period around dawn with light winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change that’s due into the South Coast mid-morning and the Sydney/Hunter region just after lunch. Reliable NE swell magnets may pick up some peaky 2-3ft sets at dawn but it'll be down to 1-2ft by mid-late morning. Elsewhere, expect smaller surf thanks to the swell direction.

This weekend (Oct 21 - Oct 22)

Looks like an ordinary weekend of waves ahead, again.

We’ve got no major new swells on the cards, just some small lingering energy from the Northern Tasman (1-2ft E/NE swell Saturday, very little Sunday), a small trailing S’ly windswell from Friday’s change (1-2ft Saturday, very little Sunday), plus some very small background southerly swell from the parent front to Friday’s change (inconsistent 1-2ft sets both days at best, though more likely Sat than Sun). 

Friday’s change may linger about the Northern NSW coast as a stalled trough and this has the potential too maintain onshore winds into Saturday, though no great strength is expected. Sunday should be generally clean with light winds and afternoon sea breezes.

In short, the weekend looks small and average - but let’s take another pass on Wednesday. 

Next week (Oct 23 onwards)

There’s nothing significant standing out in the charts for next week at this stage. Which is not to say that there won’t be any surf, it’s just that at this time of the year the model guidance is a little hazy at the end of the runs so any projected swells need to be considered in conjunction with the regional synoptics. 

There is a modest south swell on the cards for mid-next week from a strong frontal passage below Tasmania around Monday, and some troughy developments in the Northern Tasman Sea are possible early next week that could spawn a swell generating system for the East Coast mid-late next week, but other than those broad possibilities there’s nothing specific to work around. Let’s see how the models are behaving on Wednesday!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 16 Oct 2017 at 5:16pm

S'ly lines showing at Cronulla too.