Stick to the south swell magnets this long weekend

Guy Dixon picture
Guy Dixon (Guy Dixon)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 2nd October)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

Recap:

We’ve had a pretty poor few days along the NSW coast in terms of surf. Tiny remnants of a southeasterly ground swell provided weak surf in the 1ft range along the Sydney and Illawarra stretch yesterday, plagued by a northeasterly breeze all day. The Hunter offered a touch more size as usual, with peaks in the 2ft range. Conditions actually remained quite clean and workable throughout the day despite a light southeasterly breeze.

If you look really hard, you may notice a marginal increase in size across Sydney and the Illawarra this afternoon, but conditions still remain pretty ordinary under a light onshore breeze. Similarly, the Hunter is small and wind affected with nothing much worth considering.

This weekend (Saturday 3rd - Sunday 4th):

Over the past few days we have been keeping an eye on a pair of strong frontal progressions moving across the southern swell window. Despite being large and fairly strong systems, their alignment is poor so the effects felt along the NSW coast will be modest. The remaining swell windows to the north and east remain pretty quiet in the coming week, so we will have to rely on southerly energy over the long weekend for any chance of a wave.

The initial system has been passing south of Tasmania overnight with core fetches showing up on the satellite of 40-45kts (stronger core fetches were observed earlier in its life cycle but was in the swell shadow of Tasmania). Unfortunately, these core fetches are terribly aligned and as discussed in previous forecast notes, the southerly trailing fetch which once looked to provide us with more energy has pretty much disappeared.

The coast of NSW will merely feel side-band energy from this system which will severely moderate swell sizes as we move away from the swell source. However, Saturday is looking to build to the 2ft to very occasionally 3ft range exclusively at exposed south facing beaches (may be a little smaller right at dawn). Remaining locations will virtually miss out on any significant size all together. However the Hunter region's magnetic abilities under southerly groundswells should see it pick up a few larger sets through the afternoon. 

The early session is definitely the pick of the bunch under a light westerly breeze. An increasing northeasterly breeze is then likely to kick in so keep the morning free. Sunday will see the surf ease preceding the next swell front, remaining clean and workable all day.

Next week (Monday 5th – Friday 9th):

The second system is still on track to move south of Tasmania late on Friday and into Saturday. In comparison to the previous system, it is much larger with much more intense core winds, however the alignment remains particularly poor. No doubt, westerly core fetches of 60-65kts will create a hell of a disturbance and good sideband energy, but a southerly trailing fetch throughout Saturday morning will provide the bulk of the energy.

As a result, the surf should bump up to around 2-3ft+ at exposed south facing beaches throughout Monday (again, maybe slightly smaller at dawn), slowly fading throughout Tuesday. Bigger surf is expected in the Hunter throughout the afternoon, but it'll be considerably smaller at locations not open to the south. Afternoon northeasterly seabreezes remain a risk each afternoon, particularly on Tuesday so capitalise on the early offshores.

Frontal activity moving across the southern swell window will continue providing small and brief pulses of southerly swell throughout the week. There are a few key days to keep an eye on however.

Firstly, we mentioned a northerly flow becoming established along the coast preceding a southwesterly change on Tuesday. This scenario is still on the cards, but later. Northerly breezes in the 20-25kt range have the potential to whip up a short range wind swell building into the 2ft range at NE swell magnets late on Tuesday/early Wednesday.

The southerly change (which is looking like a buster) is due to move through on Wednesday in the late morning/early afternoon which means offshore breezes for the best part of the morning. Small peaky a-frames may be on the menu so keep an eye out.

The southerly airflow itself is also looking generate a short range southerly swell peaking on Thursday. Periods will be low so we can expect noisy, disorganised conditions, but exposed south facing beaches have the potential to rise into the 3-4ft range. However, conditions aren’t looking too flash under a persistent light onshore flow so it’s not worth considering too heavily at this stage. I'll take another look at this next week.

Comments

alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1 Friday, 2 Oct 2015 at 6:36pm

when you refer to bigger surf in the hunter during the afternoon do you not expect much size difference between sydney and the hunter during the dawn/mid morning? thx 4 the forecast guy

Guy Dixon's picture
Guy Dixon's picture
Guy Dixon Friday, 2 Oct 2015 at 6:42pm

As a general rule, the Hunter usually picks up more size than Sydney on a southerly swell. As the swell is building from the south throughout the day, I would expect the Hunter to be bigger than Sydney during the morning as well. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 3 Oct 2015 at 6:02am

Looks like the south swell is well and truly here.



batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Saturday, 3 Oct 2015 at 6:04pm

Surfed 4- 5 foot and long long period surf late morning on the central coast today Ben. Serious energy in the buggers too, as I regularly found while caught inside. Didn't try to to time the interval at all but seemed upwards of 14 seconds or so. Does that sound right in terms of what the bouys were showing?

Had a real Indo feel to it.

Have your thoughts on tomorrow changed given what hit today?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 7:14am

Yeah it was (still is) a classic long period S'ly groundswell (Gold Coast buoy detected the leading edge overnight with peak swell periods around 20 seconds). Today's size will slowly ease as expected although the whole event is a little above what we expected. Such a tricky source to estimate when the source fetch is aligned 150° off axis from the destination coastline!

maxe's picture
maxe's picture
maxe Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 2:46pm

Was certainly a pleasant surprise Sat morn, I was pretty amazed to surf Box Head all alone on a long weekend, .......Ok I should add it was just me and 12 jet skis!

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 5:24pm

Smart work there maxe how was the wind? I would have thought that there was a bit too much west in it.

maxe's picture
maxe's picture
maxe Tuesday, 6 Oct 2015 at 8:44pm

There was a very light onshore wind (which actually works fine at Box) at 11.00 am when I went out. Jetski class of 2015 don't seem as bad as previous seasons........yet!

Anonyomous's picture
Anonyomous's picture
Anonyomous Saturday, 3 Oct 2015 at 7:14pm

Has the forecast changed for Monday as the predicted size in the surf forecast section is saying 1 ft whereas here it is saying 2-3 ft

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 7:15am

The forecast graph is computer generated: we don't have any control over that.

At this stage - and I'll review the data later today - the next south swell still seems to be worthy of 2-3ft sets in the Sydney region with bigger waves across the Hunter.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 7:16am

Newy still looking nice this morning, and Bondi too.


blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 11:04am

3ft with the odd bigger set at the NB swell magnets this morning........and consistent!

oiley's picture
oiley's picture
oiley Sunday, 4 Oct 2015 at 12:16pm

the computer models undercooked the swell for Wollongong area too.. was still 3ft on sunset yesterday

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 5 Oct 2015 at 7:10am

The new S'ly swell is in, and looking good - sets seem to be in the 3ft range at SFB.



nochaser's picture
nochaser's picture
nochaser Monday, 5 Oct 2015 at 7:56am

long period again...Saturday was off it's head

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 5 Oct 2015 at 4:40pm

Bondi looking as good as it gets right now! A solid 4ft, super clean, sunny, warm and not that many crew considering it's also a public holiday.