Large swells, poor winds

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSWSurf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th October)

Best Days: Poor winds until Wed (SE Qld) however it'll remain poor all week south of Yamba; even SE Qld won't be that great either. Nothing amazing is expected in the surf department anywhere for the second half of the week as winds ease and swing slowly anti-clockwise and wave heights slowly abate. 

Recap: What a weekend! Howling onshore winds and large building surf that still seems to have yet reached a peak (though can’t be too far off). Unfortunately, conditions were poor almost everywhere - we did eventually see light SW winds across the Sunshine Coast on Sunday, but it didn’t kick in until 7pm. With the size of the swell and the predominant easterly wind direction yesterday and today, there simply haven’t been many surfable options. Far Northern NSW and SE Qld are pushing 8-10ft at exposed spots this afternoon, with 6-8ft surf elsewhere. Protected points are smaller in size.

This week (Oct 16 - 19)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

I’ve never been one to simplify a forecast when a thesis will suffice, but the fact is that the surf outlook for this week is relatively straight forward, in a broad synoptic sense anyway. 

We’ve got a strong, near stationary high in the Tasman Sea and a complex low pressure system east of the Gold Coast, that’s extending a coastal trough into Southern NSW. This is pushing strong E’ly (in the south) through SE (in the north) winds into coastal regions.

The trough will slowly weaken from Wednesday and meander through the central/northern Tasman Sea, and we’ll subsequently see easing winds through the middle to latter part of the week across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. However, fresh E’ly winds across the Mid North Coast will tend NE on Wednesday and Thursday, and then ease slightly but remain moderate to fresh out of the north from Friday. 

What this means is that surface conditions will only improve slowly, and mainly just in the Far North and SE Qld region, from Wednesday onwards - with very little improvement expected south of Ballina.

In any case, large swells will persist into Tuesday (too big for most coasts) so you’l be better off leaving things until we see an easing in the size department and an abatement of wind speeds later this week throughout SE Qld.

It’s a real shame that this swell event has coincided with such unfavourable winds. It’s not the direction that’s the main problem, it's their sustained nature at strength - meaning we need a half day of moderate to fresh offshore winds (or a synoptic southerly flow) to iron out all of the bumps - which is unlkely for some time.

This weekend (Oct 20 - 21)

Saturday looks very ordinary with easing E’ly swells and freshening northerly winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change for Sunday.

This change will favour the outer SE Qld and Far Northern NSW points, however we’ll be down to inconsistent 2-3ft leftovers by this time, that are likely to become even smaller during the day. I'm not terribly enthusiastic about Sunday's surf potential, to be honest.

Sheltered northern corners should have some waves early Saturday under a brief NW flow but it's likely to be pretty ordinary. Let's wait and see if the models improve the outlook by Wednesday's update. 

Next week (Oct 22 onwards)

Long term model guidance is holding the unstable trough pattern across the western Tasman Sea, however this may not necessarily develop in a favourable part of our swell window. So, there’s plenty of potential for the long term but we need a few more days to pin things down.

Comments

mr mick's picture
mr mick's picture
mr mick Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 7:55pm

another wasted swell event!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 8:14pm

Oh come on! It’s been an unreal spring so far. Way better than normal.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 8:49pm

Well come Wednesdday whatever banks that were starting to come back will now well and truly be fecked off into the storm bank department which can only mean one thing.....A fcked summer in the bank department!!!

megzy151's picture
megzy151's picture
megzy151 Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 9:03pm

Don weather, m8 with you being one of the more astute observers of anything remotely meteorological im surprised ol son you are so negative with the future prognosis, it could turn on wiht a drop of a hat

johnnygreebs's picture
johnnygreebs's picture
johnnygreebs Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 9:36pm

Nothing worse than an unsurfable big swell that wipes out our nicely groomed banks. A massive blemish in what has so far been one of the best starts to Spring in recent memory

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 2:33pm

Meg. I was referring to the bank situation, or lack of post this event playing out. Doesn't matter if we have all day offshores and consistent 4-6ft surf for the next 3 mths if there's no banks for this perfect surf!!!! Give me good perfect banks any day over perfect surf.

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 9:24pm

Pretty sure this happened last year, around the same time. Fortunately the banks recovered quicker than expected. Hopefully that happens again. TBH where I live, the beachies banks were a bit ordinary coming out of winter anyway

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 5:43am

Well down these parts it was pretty lame bank wise before so hopefully will be a blessing in disguise.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 6:51am

Bank busters are just part of life.

been epic banks around here for months, because there has been no big swell events for months.
Goldy/Tweed and Byron/Yamba usually fare the worst.

Rebuild can take months. Years sometimes.

of all the factors that make good surf, in this area inshore bathymetry ie banks is by far the most important.
Good banks will make fun surf out of just about anything. No banks and it doesn't matter how favourable wind and swell , surf will be shit.

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:43am

Yep

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 2:33pm

Summed it up perfectly FR!!!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:13am

12m wave overnight on the Mbah buoy!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:21am

Looks like it was associated with an embedded low pressure cell (within the broader system), as the timing of the peak was similar to a period of 40-50kt winds at Cape Moreton.

gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:35am

12m. So why is the surf not huge?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:40am

Lotta windswell in the mix.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:50am

Funny that the Sunshine Coast Daily wrote that article yesterday about the 8m wave and then within 12 hours it was made redundant. Ha.

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 7:52am

Just great no banks for months and I can't find my lithium or snuff box.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 8:05am

Greenmount cam a little wind effected..broken bracket or mount ?

gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 8:11am

Damn. You should have forecasted 12m groundswell instead.

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 12:48pm

Noosa looks like a half baked wave pool.
Sorry I need a surf.