thermalben

Large surf and windy conditions - but there'll be pockets of opportunityPremium content for Swellnet Pro subscribers

We’ve got a complex synoptic chart more reminiscent of February than October. But hey! I’ll take it anyway. Check the Forecaster Notes for more details. 

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Comments

surfiebum's picture
surfiebum's picture
surfiebum commented Friday, 12 Oct 2018 at 7:37pm

Crazy weather pattern for October

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 8:14am

157mm recorded at Noosa Heads since 9am Friday. The woofy water hasn't deterred the weekend crowds though!

Steviej79's picture
Steviej79's picture
Steviej79 commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 9:36am

Hi Ben, will the surf size still be peaking sun/mon? In the surf forecast for Sunny Coast tues has the most size?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 10:49am

Yeah it'll still be peaking through late Sun/Mon but the models have drawn out the timescale of this system (which is a good thing!), so as you've pointed out the large size should persist into Tuesday (though will start to be focused towards more southern locations.. so the Sunny Coast will ease earlier than locations further south). 

Steviej79's picture
Steviej79's picture
Steviej79 commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 11:07am

Thanks Ben

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 9:53am

Aaand the brief offshore for tomorrow's disappeared.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 10:50am

Not necessarily. The BOM's high res model (the most granular model we have access to) has early moderate SW winds across the northern end of the Sunny Coast (becoming fresh and gusty S'ly during the day). See below (8am, ACCESS-C BNE).

Main point (as per the forecaster notes): check the difference in wind speed and direction - and thus the impact on surf quality - between the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 3:42pm

I more-so meant the 4+ hours of W-ish winds a bunch of sites had forecast. A couple hours of SW will barely change the current slop fest. I'll probably still check it 3 times a day though and pray for a local wind miracle haha.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 10:16am

Wasn't that long ago,maybe a month or so they were predicting very little to no rain till april next year.........

simba

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 10:55am

Impressive low modeled to be east of Fraser Island at 10am this morning (Qld time). Will see what the ASCAT model picks up. Tony Auden mentioned on the Channel 7 weather last night that this could be a "small East Coast Low", which is certainly possibly though it'd only have these characteristics for a short time frame. The strongest winds are offshore too, and moving away from the coast so its impact (in a classic ECL sense) wouldn't be the same.

This is the model forecast for 7pm (Qld) this evening. That's a LOT of strong fetch within close range of the Sunny Coast.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 1:13pm

I think those Fraser Island lows usually ended up being catagorised as kind of cold/warm core hybrid lows.
Ground is saturated here, flood warning on the cards.

JMA sat images of East coast are staggering for October.

Bizarre.

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo commented Saturday, 13 Oct 2018 at 3:26pm

I had a look at point one and there a bit power to it. The forecast looks good, hopefully I will be able to drag myself away from Oprah TV.

Victory!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 5:43am

Amazing - two consecutive ASCAT passes that picked up the low/trough!

Unfortunately latest surface obs show the modeled window of lighter winds for the Sunny Coast haven't eventuated. And it was pretty windy overnight - Cape Moreton gusting 48kts out of the E/SE.

​​​​​​​

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 7:37am

wow!

that's nuts.

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 8:32am

The sweep at snapper looks like a fun ride in its self.

Victory!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 4:23pm

Looked a fairly hefty 6-8ft when I did a quick drive-by along the Tweed Coast a couple of hours ago. Lotta wind into it too. Strongest wind gusts at the moment at the Gold Coast Seaway (38kt) and Byron Bay (37kt). Winds are half the strength across the Sunshine Coast and at Yamba. Even Cape Moreton - notorious for seeing the regionally strongest winds - is only gusting 32kts.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 4:38pm

short period storm surf ripping shitt out of what were premium point banks.....oh well.

KevinHardwick's picture
KevinHardwick's picture
KevinHardwick commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 8:02pm

yep

Steviej79's picture
Steviej79's picture
Steviej79 commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 8:32pm

Checked Noosa this morn was 1-2 ft... checked the opens and 4ft at best. Have we missed out on the swell on the Sunny Coast?

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo commented Sunday, 14 Oct 2018 at 8:49pm

The sunshine beach shark nets seemed to have moved a bit. It looks big out there.

Victory!

gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti's picture
gingeryeti commented Monday, 15 Oct 2018 at 10:38am

Sunshine Coast Daily are calling an 8.5m wave on the Mooloolaba buoy "once in a decade waves". https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/once-in-a-decade-waves-pound-...

All I saw at Mooloolaba was saw 2ft brown slop.

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