South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th August)

Best Days: Sat: Very inconsistent but fun leftover E'ly swell with early light NW winds (just a brief window on the MId North Coast) before N'lies kick in. Sun: smaller, easing inconsistent swells with offshore winds. Mon/Tues: combo of small, inconsistent E'ly swell and building S'ly swell, biggest in Northern NSW. Good winds for the outer points. Wed/Thurs: fun beachbreaks with an extremely inconsistent long range E'ly swell and NW winds. 

Recap: A small mix of swells greeted Northern NSW early Thursday, though the most action was across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW where a slowly building E’ly swell was producing inconsistent 2-3ft sets. This increased further to an occasional 3-4ft today, and light winds through the morning produced excellent conditions at most locations. Just a shame about the inconsistency!

How's the sand at the Superbank!

Late lines at Currumbin

This weekend (Aug 11 - 12)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

The currently E’ly groundswell is expected to ease very slowly over the coming days.

Set waves will be equally as inconsistent as what we’ve seen over the last 72 hours, but a bigger risk on Saturday - especially across the Mid North Coast - is a freshening northerly breeze. 

Early morning should manage a light NW flow in most areas, but by mid-late morning the N’ly will be up across southern locations and early mid afternoon should see a similar trend north from Ballina, though with much less strength. South from Coffs Harbour we could see 20-25kts by late afternoon, with 10-15kts more likely across SE Qld, but in any case it points to one major factor: surf early on Saturday. And remember, there will be very long waits for the bigger waves. 

Exposed beaches should still manage 3ft sets, maybe the odd 3-4ft bomb if we’re lucky, though it’ll become smaller throughout the day. Expect smaller surf running down the lengths of the points.

Fresh offshore winds are expected on Sunday in the wake of the front, mainly NW tending SW and it’ll be quite gusty across southern regions. As such, the beaches will be well worth a look, exposed spots may see the odd 2-3ft bomb but there’ll be lengthy periods of tiny conditions between waves. Expect smaller surf throughout the afternoon. 

Next week (Aug 13 onwards)

So, the models have changed the setup of the frontal passage through Bass Strait over the weekend, and it now looks like we won’t see much of a low pressure system developing in the Tasman Sea. Instead, a strong cycle of fronts will push eastwards through to New Zealand, aimed somewhat away from our swell window. 

However, we still have a multitude of swell sources on the cards.

The long range E’ly groundswell that’s been discussed for the last week or so is still on track for Wednesday and Thursday, but as per Wednesday’s notes I’m very concerned that the enormous travel distance will render this swell’s inconsistency too much of a problem. It’s still possible for a handful of reliable swell magnets to see set waves anywhere between 3ft and 5ft from this source (expect swell periods to perk up towards 14-15 seconds), but at perhaps more than half an hour between likely one or two wave sets, it’s impossible to work around. As I said on Wednesday, this swell should really be pegged in the 2-3ft range, with occasional bigger rogue sets from time to time.

In any case, there’ll be other swell sources in the water at this time, and also prior to then.

During Saturday, a small trough will develop north of New Zealand, evolving into a low that’ll generate a brief flush of E’ly swell that’ll arrive around Tuesday (easing Wednesday) in the 2-3ft range. Monday should see marginally smaller, very inconsistent levels of persistent E’ly swell from the same source as the weekend but we’ll also see building S’ly swells from the fronts pushing through the Tasman Sea. 

Now, these fronts won’t be very well aligned for our coast but we’re still likely to see surf size build towards a peak in Northern NSW around 4-5ft+ from later Monday through Tuesday, before easing Wednesday onwards. The swell direction will create much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south, and SE Qld won’t pick up much size from this source - maybe some 2ft+ waves across the outer points, pushing 3ft or maybe 3-4ft at exposed northern ends if we’re lucky (though mainly S’ly quadrant winds Mon/Tues will favour the points).  

The small S’ly swells and pulsey long range E’ly swells Wed/Thurs will coincide with moderate NW winds, so it looks like we’ll see some great waves across the beaches. 

Otherwise, another cycle of deep Southern Ocean lows will migrate south of Tasmania mid-late week and will contribute some strong southerly swell for Northern NSW later next week and through into the weekend. More on that in Monday’s update.

Have a great weekend!