thermalben

Large cyclone swell building Thursday onwards

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th February)

Best Days: Thurs onwards: building long period E'ly cyclone swell that's likely to reach a sizeable peak early next week. 

Recap: Good E/SE swell pulsed through the weekend, peaking a little earlier than expected (late Sat thru’ early Sun) and the expected N’lies also cropped up late Saturday morning and through the afternoon, ahead of schedule. Wave heights eased slightly through Sunday afternoon and further today, with generally light variable winds. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (Feb 13 - 16)

There’s not much quality surf in store over the short term.

A weak trough lying across Southern Qld and extending out into the western Tasman Sea off the Mid North Coast will create periods of northerly winds for the next few days, mainly across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (there’s a greater chance for light variable winds at times south from Yamba).

We’ll see a small undercurrent of swell from the east most days, best suited to open beaches but I can’t see much more than the occasional 2ft set. 

Elsewhere, s small front cleared east of Tasmania yesterday and it's sent up a small south swell due later Tuesday (Mid North Coast) though no great size is expected. A strong front exiting eastern Bass Strait later Wednesday will generate a small south swell for Thursday afternoon, and further south swells are then expected through Friday and the weekend from the parent low well south of Tasmania, but this will be greatly overshadowed by a more significant E’ly groundswell.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita formed in the Tropical South Pacific on Friday afternoon, and has since strengthened to category 4 status whilst undertaking an impressive southward curve (from an eastward track), before recurving again to the west.

STC Gita is a very large, dangerous system that will likely reach Cat 5 this evening and persist at this strength for the next few days. STC Gita is in a very favourable environment for sustained development, with warm Sea Surface Temps (28-29 degrees), moderate wind shear and good outflow, and is being steered westward along the northern perimeter of a subtropical ridge further south. 

In short, this is a very large, extremely powerful cyclone entering our far E/NE swell window, with an expected forward track that is as-good-as-it-gets for long range groundswell potential.

Rather than verbalise the numerical guidance - we can all see the purple blob on the screen, and observe the impressive virtual buoy height and period figures for your local coastline - what I’d like to do is highlight the things I like about this system, and the things I don’t like. Because really, at the end of the day we’re looking at a very large, long lived groundswell event that’s going to light up a small percentage surf spots that will likely be tackled by an even smaller percentage of surfers. Overall, this won't be a swell event suitable for beginner or even intermediate surfers. It’s very likely to be a sustained, sizeable and powerful round of energy with strong currents and dangerous conditions for all but the most experienced surfers.

So, what do I like? Well, what’s not to like? There are so many fascinating aspects as to how this system is being modelled, I’m not sure where to start.

First of all, TC Gita initially recurved to the west way out in the far reaches of our South Pacific swell window, and it did so at comparatively low strength (Cat 1). As it moves through our swell window aimed towards the East Coast, it will gain strength, which is useful though only if other conditions are adequate. 

When looking at the forward track of any weather system, you ideally want it to be heading to your coast at a speed that is similar to the speed of the swell it is generating, because this enhances swell production in a phenomena known as Captured Fetch (resulting in much larger waves than you'd see from a regular system). Initially, it appears that STC Gita will move too slow for this to happen, however from about Friday onwards its expected to veer to the SW from a position just SE of New Caledonia, and then accelerate into this desired speed range. This is right up through our mid range swell window, which to be honest couldn’t be timed much better - though it will be best aimed towards Southern NSW during this period.

STC Gita is very broad and relatively linear in strength; sometimes an ill-placed supporting ridge will focus the strongest winds (all we require for surf potential) into an unfavourable quadrant. However this looks pretty even across the board for much of the model run so far. So, that's a good thing too.

Whilst the slow moving nature of STC Gita may initially restrict its Captured Fetch potential, by the same token it will also allow the swell to move ahead of the main fetch. For example, the leading edge of this event - generated over the weekend well to the east of Tonga - will arrive some time on Thursday, but at that point STC Gita will be positioned south of Fiji, generating fresh energy that won’t arrive until Saturday. What this means is that STC Gita will be working on a very active sea state (which enhances swell potential), compared to a system that moves too quickly through the swell window into essentially ‘dead’ water (if the synoptic system is set up that way). 

And lastly, the large distance from STC Gita to the mainland (and all of the factors above) means that the cyclone won’t concurrently influence our local weather as the swell makes landfall. Even the tail end of the model runs current have a continental high pressure system deflecting it south through the Tasman Sea, away from the Australian mainland. This doesn’t guarantee favourable conditions, as we’ll see local systems influencing our winds, but most often the biggest swell events on the East Coast are generated by ECLs, Tasman Lows or Tropical Cyclones sitting in close proximity to the mainland, and delivering funky winds and weather.

The only things I don’t love about the current model guidance is the supporting ridge to the south of STC Gita. It’s good, and extends the underlying E’ly fetch a reasonable distance back into the South Pacific, but it could be better, especially over the coming days. 

Also, it's very important to remember that despite reaching Cat 5 over the coming days - when it's positioned in our swell window - the fetch length of these hurricane-force winds will be relatively short. So, when estimating surf size, you're best off assessing the regional wind charts without the cyclone, to establish the background wave field. Then, you can consider how much additional size and strength the cyclone will add to the mix. 

So, enough waffle.. how big is it gonna get?

I'm really not quite sure. I haven’t see a Severe Tropical Cyclone of this size modelled in this way before in such a distant-though-encroaching region of our swell window, and any one of the factors I mentioned earlier could have a small or large impression on eventual surf size. 

Anyway, Thursday should start to see the leading edge of infrequent sets through the day, building from 2-3ft to 3-5ft by the afternoon across most open coasts. I don’t think there’ll be too much of a time delay across the region, though its possible we may see a slight lag across the Mid North Coast. I think it'll be very, very inconsistent though.

Winds look tricky in SE Qld on Thursday with an easing N’ly flow, but it should be light and variable south from Yamba to Seal Rocks.

Into Friday a much more prominent increase will occur. But we need to remember that Friday’s long range E’ly swell will have been generated several thousand kilometres away, and will thus be extremely inconsistent. Sets should lift from an infrequent 4-5 to 6ft+ during the day but you will likely have to be very patient for the bigger waves.

These figures are largely inline with our model, which I think is picking up this system pretty well. However, it's worth pointing out that the biggest sets will originate from the strongest winds around the core of the cyclone, so not only will they be very inconsistent, there'll be periods of smaller surf between sets which may be quite deceiving.

Light N’ly winds are possible about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts, though a late S’ly change is on the cards for the Mid North Coast. 

This weekend  (Feb 17 - 18)

At this stage a weak pressure pattern is expected all weekend with a high the Bight and another supporting high in the Southern Tasman Sea, as STC Gita motors through our swell window at strength. So, winds should be locally light, though they are shifting around between model runs. Right now we’re looking at S’lies which is ideal for the points. 

We’ll be seeing building surf zone during this time from STC Gita's developments just south of Fiji later this week. There are likely to be several embedded pulses in energy from Saturday onwards, so it’s hard to map out a distinct weekend trend. 

At this stage I’ll put in some ball park number of somewhere in the 6-8ft range Saturday potentially building to 8-10ft Sunday, but will refine it on Wednesday and Friday as we draw closer to the weekend. Obviously, a groundswell of this size and strength will only favour a handful of protected locations so options will be limited. 

Also, there’ll be some strong long period S’ly groundswell in the mix from late Saturday afternoon (Mid North Coast) through Sunday (remaining Northern NSW Coast), from the parent low south of Tasmania on Thursday. South swell magnets should see 4-5ft+ sets from this source at times, likely largest Sunday lunchtime and afternoon. 

I wonder how the combined swell trains will react at exposed swell magnets in Northern NSW? Crikey.

Next week (Feb 19th onwards)

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are very complex, and very interesting as well.

Assuming the model guidance holds - and to be honest, for a long range system they’ve done very well over the last week or so - we’re looking at a peak in size early/mid next week, though mainly across Southern NSW as the system will move south of our swell window through Sunday. 

Actually, that’s not entirely true - it will move south though there’s every chance we’ll see a SE fetch on the bottom flank of the low aimed our way. But, southward tracking lows are no good for swell potential up north, so the upside is that we’re likely to see a peak in size on Monday across SE Qld before it starts easing. This peak may be delayed across more southern regions, depending on the speed of STC Gita as it transitions through the central Tasman Sea.

Obviously, small deviations in track and strength will affect the size outcome here but there’s no reason to discount the possibility of some exposed locations maintaining 10ft+ surf on Monday (originating from STC Gita’s position later Saturday and Sunday), but we’re way out in the fantasy chart timeline here so I’d prefer to keep assessing each model run as to how the overall trend is performing. 

Looks like I have my work cut out for me over the coming days!

See you Wednesday. 

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 6:51pm

TBH, I was a little worried about overcalling this event. But, I used a few analogous typhoon swell events I forecast for in Japan in the mid-late 2000's to try to calibrate against. Each and every time, the swell size and period generated was incredible, despite the typhoon being only small in size. I think captured fetch had a lot to do with it.

curly2alex's picture
curly2alex's picture
curly2alex commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:21pm

That forecast was intense, I was so exhausted I had to change hands half way !

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 7:25pm

Is there any data or statistics too go off that with such a big event now that in a months time (quikky pro) its unlikely for a swell event?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 7:33pm

Nah, there’s no correlation. Anything is possible.

Billy_Bud's picture
Billy_Bud's picture
Billy_Bud commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 7:50pm

I recall WCT pushed the contest window back from Feb into March a few years ago ?
Let's hope TC Gita has triplets in the South Pacific into March...Sorry Tongan locals, best wishes for tomorrow.

southernsealspirit's picture
southernsealspirit's picture
southernsealspirit commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:02pm

Thanks Ben
I wonder if it’ll get bigger than the black nor’east Swell a couple of years ago?
I managed to get out the back at the open beach south of Byron and it was holding it, that swell was a lot closer but I think, this could be even more like a big WA groundswell (inconsistent bombs?) so Thanks Huey, bring it on

Geoffro

tomjoad's picture
tomjoad's picture
tomjoad commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:04pm

I love these write-ups and pretty much rely on them every week to plan my surfing. Hope it's not unwelcome to say that you could potentially tighten up on the summary. From a 'when should I go surfing' point of view, I'm thinking 7-10 days in advance 'Thursday looks good, Sunday looks good, scratch out Friday morning' etc. Something which steps out the chronology of the weather period would be a good reference to summarise your write-ups. I know you have the format 'forecast', but your written explanations are more useful. It just takes a lot to wade through them. Just a thought...

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:36pm

Maybe Ben could just swing by your place, pick you up and drop you off to the best, least crowded surf for a few hours, grab you some lunch for when you come in, and then drop you home. Would that be tightening it up enough for you?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:48pm

Hahah.
Jeez some people are hard to please eh. These written reports are so comprehensive and detailed, they’re unbeleivable.
Amazing write up Ben

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 9:08pm

You just gotta wonder if there taking the piss/trolling. I hope they are..

tomjoad's picture
tomjoad's picture
tomjoad commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 11:33pm

Oh ok, so it was unwelcome. Also, 'they're'.

the chase's picture
the chase's picture
the chase commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:07pm

Very unpredictable to forecast a system like this anything could happen in the next 24hrs

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:14pm

Very few will commit, but coasts and Rfs north of Bundy, this is IT

Tdogg's picture
Tdogg's picture
Tdogg commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:55pm

nar dont come will be shit

donkeyKONG's picture
donkeyKONG's picture
donkeyKONG commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:35pm

"Overall, this won't be a swell event suitable for beginner or even intermediate surfers. It’s very likely to be a sustained, sizeable and powerful round of energy with strong currents and dangerous conditions for all but the most experienced surfers." ...Out of the woodwork here they come! Very unlikely many of you will paddle out bodhi style.... very few workable options at the predicted size ..... what this 7-10 days in advance, proof you probably shouldn't paddle out? Hype, here we go, stay safe . "Bodhi: The man that pushes the boundaries tends to break."

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 8:41pm
mrmik's picture
mrmik's picture
mrmik commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 11:27pm

How reliable is the forecast that Gita will swing around to the south and then south-west, to hit Auckland or Wellington after weakening?
Looks mighty scary on windyTV https://www.windyty.com/?2016-02-20-00,-15.411,170.200,4 , bye bye beaches for the Commonwealth Games. And if it does not stop moving East on the weekend, then we are in for a demonstration of what global warming means.

Jackmolka's picture
Jackmolka's picture
Jackmolka commented Monday, 12 Feb 2018 at 11:29pm

Good stuff mate keep it up

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:01am

MICK FREE!!!!!!!!! That spot I put you on a while back...... You know the one.... You emailed me some pics .... Possible outer bommie action, mate....

Sheepdog

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 4:44am

Excellent, Ben. Makes my meteorologist heart sing.

I too suspect that captured/dynamic fetch is the key.

MrMik, there has been A LOT of uncertainty re the further track of Gita. Ensemble models have had some members taking it on a WSW track, while others take Gita across NZ. It now seems like they have agreed on NZ, but whether it crosses the North Island or South Island is still up in the air.

As someone who absolutely scored with the Black NE swell, I wish you all good luck :-)

Benda's picture
Benda's picture
Benda commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 5:15am

looks pretty much a similar size and tracking model to Winston almost exactly 2 years apart.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 6:45am

jeez as it stands now modelling wise looks like NZ is going to cop it.

simba

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:49am

It's been copping it for last 18 months....NZ been a magnet for storms running straight over it

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 11:21am

thats because of the anomalous warm water pooled around it.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:36pm

Yes you right Steve but didn't seem warm when I was there. Pulled the 4'3 out new years eve for a few sessions! Good luck for this swell!

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:39pm

thanks mate, I won't be travelling far I'm guessing.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 6:58am

Direct pass over Tonga.

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 7:26am

STC Winston performed well here on the Mid/Nth/Coast giving one huge day & then delivering more options over the nxt 3 days or so as the swell dropped a little. Hopefully STC Gita will deliver something similar but a more sustained run of swell would be GR8. I recall an event in the 80's where we had waves above 4ft up to a peak of 6 to 8ft resulting in a sustained run of swell on the QLD points for over 28 days. Wouldn't that be nice!

Mulletup's picture
Mulletup's picture
Mulletup commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 2:55pm

Like Winston I’m expecting headlands full of intermediate surfers at best, telling the masses of there perfect mornings surfing at hidden points or stories of charging but actually being no where to be seen for days!! Got to love a swell event like Winston’s antic to bring out the headland heroes!!!

Neverhadabadsurforcone

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 8:07am

Gita means “divine song” in Sanskrit

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 8:38am

TC Winston was a totally different beast with a totally different track.

It drifted out to the E, weakened, did a 180 recurve and intensified as it tracked due W, hammered Fiji and then steamed into the Tasman sea before turning NW, tracked parallel to the QLD coast and weakened in the Coral Sea.

TC Winston was a bit of a dud surfwise because it was too long in the swell shadow of New Cal and then came too close when it tracked in and headed N.
Bank buster.

You want TC's to track W and then SW into the Tasman, like this one is modelled to do.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 9:40am

Terrifying model guidance for Norfolk Island, in the early hours of Sunday morning (see below, the tiny spec within the white circle).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 9:44am

BTW, the regional overview of that same time stamp is below. If it eventuates I'll have to significantly upgrade my outlook for early next week. That's a very broad fetch of 50kt+ winds. Swell periods will be up in to the 18-20 second range, which is unheard of from this quadrant. 
​​​​​​​

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 9:48am

WillyWeather showing 8.4 mt Nth Swell for Sunday at Norfolk

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:11am

So, you'd recommend protected southern corners then?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:28am

Yes..he he....would love to do a fly over Middleton reef as this thing approaches

the-u-turn's picture
the-u-turn's picture
the-u-turn commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:10am

Jeez - Thanks for the heads up Ben. This week will be all about getting good sleep, leaving the grog to the side and doing a ton of stretching - and buying a new leggie. Cheers.

The U Turn
...a little Aloha goes a long way.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:47am

Ben/Craig, what's your thoughts on why the EC wave model is significantly downplaying swells for our shores this weekend. Does it struggle forecasting wave heights from these compact core fetches?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:06pm

Are you talking about EC's swell model? Or the atmos model?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 1:44pm

Whats the atmos model? I'm talking about EC's wave model (ECMWF WAM).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 1:57pm

TBH I haven't used it, as it doesn't offer the same level of granularity we get from WW3.

Having used WW3 exclusively for years I don't see the merit in throwing everything available into the pot to give it a stir (though there was a time when I certainly did!). As such I wouldn't be sure if it were EC's wave model or atmos model that were responsible for the error margins. 

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 5:16pm

That's odd considering you use the EC weather model to make forecasts upon. I would have thought you would have used or at least compared their swell model to GFS/WW3.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 5:20pm

I've tried AUSWAM before, and didn't like it (the BOM's in house swell model). I've seen others too but as we run WW3 in house, it's better to use one swell model you're comfortable with, and then rotate through the various atmos models.

The EC wave data I tried (some time ago) had only basic data available (Hsig, Tp) etc, and I don't even use that data via WW3 - I mainly look at individual swell trains.

Even then I use 10m winds probably 70% as a basis for all forecasts; the swell models are good to compare/evaluate timings (esp over long distances).  

Roystein's picture
Roystein's picture
Roystein commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:44am

what a comprehensive write up, thanks Ben.
This is a very special swell event. Take care, and at least get to the coastline to have a look.
Current track has a stall and still strong at north island nz and hence another pulse of ese later next week.
The westward movement before that is astounding.
hopefully there is not significant damage or loss of life.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 10:54am

A fair bit of this is going over my head, but catching the general gist of it. Might max out my abilities, but will be something to behold standing on the shoreline!

Time to whip out the cameras!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 11:57am

So the people on the goldy would not be looking the peak of this swell?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:20pm

Overcalled.....
8 foot.... Maybe 10 foot bombs..

Sheepdog

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:24pm

Out of interest (to narrow the thesis above into two sentences), I called:

"At this stage I’ll put in some ball park number of somewhere in the 6-8ft range Saturday potentially building to 8-10ft Sunday".

And then:

"there’s no reason to discount the possibility of some exposed locations maintaining 10ft+ surf on Monday".

How is that an overcall compared to "8 foot.... Maybe 10 foot bombs"?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:26pm

I think it's an entirely legitimate call and in this case, with such a potentially dangerous swell event, it's better to err on the side of an overcall.

Far better for someone to think it might be 10 foot out there....and make a decision based on that, than for someone to blunder into what looks like 6 ft surf and have to deal with 10 foot sets way out of their ability range.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:42pm

It's pretty academic to quibble about 8ish+ and 10ish+

The headline and details could just read : "Pretty f*cking big" :D

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:46pm

But then anyone who gives considered contribution to a forecasting thread qualifies as a surfing academic.

So carry on professors...

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 12:47pm

Just sayin.... Talking about the thread in general, Ben.
Hey.... Hope I'm wrong just for the spectacle... But if it does upgrade to say 12 foot, goldy will be unsurfable, as will the 2 outer points at jokesville. Byron wont cope.... And I' dont know about FR's paddock at that size.
If the winds are offshore in the mornings , the legendary big wave spot which you decided to poke a camera at :/ will claim some blood.... It's not to be fucked with by gumby's.

Sheepdog

the chase's picture
the chase's picture
the chase commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 1:11pm

What is it about a cyclone swell. its the name it's the unknown. It's the anticipation it's the colours on the charts we rarely see. It's should i paddle out. It's challenging yourself. Its getting your head smashed into the sand and thinking thank you can i have another. Hahaha

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 2:03pm

I love the "before" feeling of a swell like this.

The anticipation.

For me it's a lot to do with boards. It's that last two boards in the corner of your rack. The ones that lie dormant year round. They're not needy like your normal step up, wanting to be taken out anytime the charts look sideways at a 4ft swell. They're content to sit idle. They know you love them. They know you trust them. And more than anything, they know you'll be back. For days like these.

I've already pulled mine out. Accumulated dust has been caressed off. Rails and outlines felt up. Tales and recollections rekindled. Cleaned and ready for wax.

The anticipation.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 2:11pm

Yes, yes and yes.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 3:03pm

Actually, for me it's yes, yes, yes and yes. Ya missed one.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 3:06pm

The 'I left my bigger board behind' excuse ain't gonna fly for this swell.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 3:23pm

.. because of the swell duration potential?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 4:19pm

That and everyone is talking about it well before it arrives.

Adam71's picture
Adam71's picture
Adam71 commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 7:34pm

What about if your semi gun is in the pawn shop?, still count, lol

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 3:22pm

Wind wise, early friday looks glassy.. Ben, do you have manual control over your cams?

Sheepdog

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 3:33pm

southern bribie might even get waves bahahahahaha.... Moreton bay barrels lol
But jokes aside, Be careful peeps...
True cyclone swells have a certain neck cracking edge about them.

Sheepdog

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 5:22pm

Rattlesnake... lol

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 5:26pm

lol

Sheepdog

_benno's picture
_benno's picture
_benno commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 9:10pm

I reckon you could crack your record for most comments on a report Ben, come Friday's notes.

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser commented Tuesday, 13 Feb 2018 at 9:38pm

Ummmm... there’s a lot of East and North in the wind forecast now...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 9:31am

STC Gita has moved into Satview: http://satview.bom.gov.au/

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 9:58am

This image shows Gita relative to Australia and New Zealand (you can also see its proximity to Fiji, just to the north).

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 10:21am

Local winds are the key now my friends. No shortage of swell, but models WIDELY divergent on local wind forecasts over the weekend and at the peak of this swell event.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 1:28pm

Just checked the latest maps, Don..... Apart from a few semi secret mysto spots, north of vegas, wind doesn't matter.... Gonna be too big for the goldy any ways, except maybe for a handful of jet skis

Sheepdog

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 1:35pm

Wind doesn't matter? So if it's blowin N'ly then it doesn't matter?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 1:39pm

Only iffy day for winds is Friday. Looks to be light tending moderate SE from Sat onwards, otherwise - models are in pretty good agreement IMO.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:22pm

What's your basis for saying it's gonna "blow northerly", or are your just being argumentative? And your comment on a hypothetical "northerly could make me name 2 breaks.... Is that what you want, Don?

Sheepdog

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:27pm
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:31pm

Monday????? You said "weekend".....

Sheepdog

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:30pm

I believe i said "over the weekend AND at the peak of this swell event"

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:33pm

Weren't you talking about "the peak of the swell event"???? The "weekend"????

Sheepdog

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:35pm

That's ACCESS G, the least reliable model of the lot.

EC has light variable Monday, GFS has fresh S'lies. 

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:59pm

Is the BOM using the worst model for winds... for their winds forecast? That's a worry

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:07pm

No, it's just the one they make raw data publicly available (seeing how it's taxpayer funded etc). For official forecasts they use a hybrid model system (GFE).

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:15pm

Here's their Marine Forecast for the goldy for Fri:

Friday 16 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon

Somebody's right, somebody's wrong. If these guys are the latter, then it's not money-well-spent

EDIT: sorry I realise this is Friday which is earlier than discussed, but they seem to have N and E as a component through most of the weekend

kaiser's picture
kaiser's picture
kaiser commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:23pm

Sat:
Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.
Sun:
Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.
Mon:
Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Early morning session or bust

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:35pm

All computer generated. They'll manually tweak forecasts within 1-2 days from time to time, but in general it's all straight out of the model. 

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:03pm

Hey Ben you would have to be getting a bit excited by now,track seems to be staying true to forecast.......big wave riders getting all antsy .........going to be something to see thats for sure ,mother nature doing its thing........

simba

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:15pm

Big upgrade coming for the arvo update.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:29pm

Yeah ben..... I'm onboard having looked at the updated maps, now it's not sliding so ssw and tracking even further wsw, we're looking at a major event of epic proportions.... Ill be VERY interested to see after the event what the sand at Kirra will look like

Sheepdog

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:04pm

I like the winds for Friday. Smoking big lefts if you can get out to them

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:43pm

A few options. Are you going to look North or South from home?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:16pm

Just to the north

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 4:38pm

got a spare room?

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:15pm

my two cents has the west coast of the south island lighting up spots no one has ever surfed by the dozen.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:47pm

and an island of the West Coast North Island

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 4:07pm

Australia?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:27pm
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 3:37pm

That's nuts!

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:38pm

how perfect does that shot of Gits look...awesome.....Bens licking his lips....ha

simba

daisy duke kahanamoku's picture
daisy duke kahanamoku's picture
daisy duke kaha... commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:41pm

I'm bouncing between sky high anticipation and shit scared horror. What's the appropriate response here. I can't get any work done.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 4:41pm

Shit scared horror here. I'll be on the sidelines - 10ft+ aint my bag. I'll try find a novelty spot somewhere.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 5:29pm

Yeah..... 10 foot...... I'm on the upgrade... Bigger bombs... Ben if you want some inside info on rare breaks north of briso, pm me.... Cheers.

Sheepdog

donkeyKONG's picture
donkeyKONG's picture
donkeyKONG commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 5:58pm

How much bigger than Winston?

filthyphil's picture
filthyphil's picture
filthyphil commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 6:04pm

Rip in guys. Good luck

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