South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th March)

Best Days: Most days should have great waves at most coasts, though you'll generally have to look for some protection from the S'ly breeze.

Recap: Tuesday saw residual trade swell in the 2-3ft range across the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts, whilst the Mid North Coast picked up a building S’ly swell that peaked early this morning with 4-6ft sets across south facing beaches south of Byron, and much smaller surf north of the border. A building E/NE swell from TC Cook also built throughout the day, reaching 3-5ft at exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. This swell is now staring to filter down the East Coast. 

Late session at Noosa Heads

This week (Apr 13 - 14)

Thanks for the feedback on the change in writing style. Seems there’s more support for the old style (grumble grumble! ha).

It was interesting to see the ASCAT and Windsat passes from TC Cook once it crossed New Caledonia on Tuesday - the recorded winds from the satellites didn’t match what the models had been suggesting, so confidence dropped for the E/NE cyclone swell. However, it still came in as per Monday’s expectations.

Interestingly, the latest model runs (from this morning) have also increased their size projections - our Gold Coast data point now has 2ft E/NE swell for this morning, building to 3-4ft this afternoon, which is close to what was experienced (on Monday, it only expected 2ft from the E/NE, but I dismissed this and aimed higher). It’s odd that this “upgrade” occured right on the day though - we have no manual intervention with the model - if anything I would have expected the satellite data input to have pulled back estimations. 

Anyway, this is a moot point - we have a quality E/NE groundswell in the water, so I hope you’ve made the most of it as it’s going to trend down steadily through Thursday. 

If the model guidance is to be believed (and I’m not 100% confident, given the ups and downs of the last few days) we’re looking at an overnight peak and then 3ft sets on the Gold Coast Thursday morning easing to 2ft throughout the day. I think this is a plausible figure, though I wouldn’t be surprised if the dropping trend occurs earlier than forecast. TC Cook lasted only a brief time in our swell window, so the swell it generated for us will be a quick event. 

As you track south from Byron, there’s a greater chance of seeing a longer duration of this swell event (because it’s expected to arrive later than locations further north, so it’ll consequently peak later). However, my confidence for swell potential from TC Cook decreases for this event the further south you head. TC Cook was a flukey system as it passed through the swell window - it initially had a SW track towards the SE Qld region but then swung away to the SE, so the time spent in the swell windows of more southern locations was a little more fleeting.

Otherwise, we have some new SE swell due over the coming days. 

Our current short range S’ly swell from Tuesday’s change is now easing, and will level out into Thursday morning with 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and smaller surf elsewhere, mainly E/NE swell form TC Cook.

A Tasman Low which was the primary driving mechanism behind the southerly change has been restrengthening close to the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island over the last 36 hours. It’ll deliver a renewal of SE swell through Thursday afternoon (Mid North Coast) and Friday morning (remaining Northern NSW coasts, and SE Qld). We should see a peak around 4-5ft+ on Friday across south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, and smaller surf elsewhere. This size range is also possible late Thursday south from Coffs.

Friday's swell direction won’t be quite as well aimed for SE Qld, but the outer points should rebuild back to 2-3ft during the morning. Expect much smaller surf at protected locations, though exposed northern ends should see some 4ft sets - they may be a little wobbly though.

As for local winds, as the Tasman Low slowly weakens we’ll see moderate but abating southerly winds across most regions. They should be light enough to allow for early morning SW’ers in many spots, but this is more likely at a broad regional scale on Friday than Thursday. 

This weekend (Apr 15 - 16)

So, we’ve got a three way merger expected in the southern Tasman Sea this weekend, between the Tasman Low, an advancing cold front from the Southern Ocean, and the remnants of ex-TC Cook which is expected to slide down the East Coast of New Zealand on Thursday and Friday, re-entering the lower Tasman Sea and stalling a southerly fetch for a day or so. 

Unfortunately, the eventual outcome looks like it’ll be aimed more towards Fiji so we’re looking at a glancing southerly swell over the weekend. 

Saturday will initially see a combination of easing SE swell from Friday across Northern NSW, and rebuilding swell from the new Tasman merger. South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up 3-5ft sets but it’ll be smaller elsewhere, and locations north of the border will see another foot or two smaller than this. 

Also in the water over the weekend will be a small, very inconsistent long range E’ly groundswell generated by a sub tropical low in the South Pacific this week that has a broad high pressure system to the south, resulting in a long period groundswell making its way slowly through the region. Set waves will be very infrequent but could nudge the 3-4ft mark at times across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (building Saturday, levelling out Sunday). Expect slightly smaller surf south from about Yamba. However, it's worth reiterating that set waves will be extremely infrequent from this source: this is an important characteristic to remember when surfing well populated point breaks. 

Conditions should be great both days with light offshore winds and sea breezes. 

Next week (Apr 17 onwards)

The models have cooled on the prospect of another Tasman Low next week so it looks like Monday will see steadily easing S/SE swell from the Tasman Low combo, and slowly easing E’ly swell from the South Pacific system. There’s nothing otherwise showing up on the long term radar.