Many pulses of south swell due over the coming week

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd July)

Best DaysSun: building S'ly swell across Northern NSW (remaining tiny in SE Qld). Mon/Tues: strong S'ly swell in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld but exposed northern ends should be fun. Good winds in most regions. Wed: easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW (very small in SE Qld) with good winds. 

Recap: Wave heights have remained tiny throughout SE Qld over the last few days. A small S’ly swell pushed up the Northern NSW coast late Thursday, holding into Friday morning with 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. Winds have picked up from the north favouring protected northern corners. 


Fresh S'ly swell at Coffs Harbour this morning

This weekend (Saturday 23rd July - Sunday 24th July)

Tiny conditions are expected across all coasts on Saturday

Our current south swell will continue to fade, and winds will freshen from the north-west as a front approaches the region. We may see a small low quality northerly windswell across north-facing beaches of the Gold and Tweed Coasts but it’s not worth getting too excited about.

During Saturday morning, a broad, multi-centered low pressure system will develop across the entire Tasman Sea basin, however it looks like our south swell window won’t become active until very late in the day. This means we won’t see the resulting new southerly swell push up the Northern NSW coast until sometime Sunday - probably early to mid morning on the Mid North Coast, then early to mid afternoon across the Far North Coast. 

As such we’re looking at an afternoon peak in size across all regions, in fact there are several stronger pulses behind this that will result in the biggest waves being seen on Monday. Surf size should reach 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay (smaller early morning, especially in the Far North) and expect smaller surf at beaches not completely open to the south (~2-3ft or so). Southern corners will be tiny.

SE Qld really won’t do very well from this swell - not only will it be a very late arrival north of the border, but the direction will only favour a couple of super exposed south swell magnets that may see glancing energy late in the day. 

Expect most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches to remain tiny all day, with a mid-late afternoon pulse to maybe 0.5-1ft. The outer points may rake in a few bigger 1.5ft+ sets in the few hours before dark, and super reliable south swell magnets may see late 2-3ft bombs on dark (more chance on the Gold Coast than Sunshine Coast), but I really wouldn’t get your hopes up north of the border.

As for Sunday’s surface conditions - we’re looking at light variable winds and sea breezes, so it’ll be well worth scouting your favourite south facing beach south of the border. 

Next week (Monday 25th July onwards)

The weekend's parent Tasman low is expected to display several strong swell generating fetches, which will generate varying degrees of southerly swell for the first half of next week. 

Strong trailing winds from the first front will maintain plenty of energy through Monday morning, somewhere in the 4-5ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron, ahead of a second, stronger swell for the afternoon (earlier on the Mid North Coast), generated by a secondary front S/SE of Tasmania late Saturday.

This front is modelled to slingshot around the primary low into Sunday, aimed nicely within our swell window. South facing beaches should see a little more size into Monday afternoon with strong 5-6ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, and smaller surf elsewhere. This swell should hold steady across the Far North into Tuesday morning, but ease during the day (it’ll probably be on the way down by Tuesday morning across the Mid North Coast). 

No major synoptic pattern is expected both days, so we should see early light winds and sea breezes maintaining clean conditions just about everywhere.

A third fetch associated with an embedded polar low will track SE over the weekend but then remain slow moving off the ice shelf for a day or so, which will set up a smaller but useful S/SE from later Tuesday thru’ Wednesday. This should fill in 4ft sets into Tuesday afternoon at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, but an easing trend back to around 3ft is expected on Wednesday.

The usual caveats will hold true for other locations during this period - smaller at beaches not open to the south, very small in southern corners etc.

Across SE Qld, this run of southerly swell won’t favour many beaches (1-2ft most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches, and very slow/inconsistent) however exposed northern ends should pick up some decent size at times, pushing 3-4ft due to the acute southerly swell direction at times on Monday and Tuesday. Expect smaller surf into Wednesday as the energy fades. 

Looking further ahead and another extended period of strong frontal activity is expected from Tuesday onwards. Current model guidance has a predominantly zonal pattern at first (which will cap wave heights across the East Coast, in and around a mid-week pulse of new S'ly energy) followed by a slightly stronger, more meridional (north-south) flow from late Wednesday onwards that could generate a much larger southerly swell for Northern NSW later Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately this looks like it'll maintain very small conditions throughout most SE Qld beaches for the foreseeable future.

Anyway, if you like south swells you’ve certainly got an active week or more ahead! Have a great weekend, see you Monday. 

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 22 Jul 2016 at 6:00pm

Will be interesting to see how these next south swells perform, with the sand filling in some of the gutters and holes over the last week or so.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 22 Jul 2016 at 11:15pm

The ripple riders of FNQ might get a few brown mini wedges next week..... Is Mitch vg around?

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 7:51am

I,ll be in Cairns next week.Better pack the gun......

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 1:36pm

Currently 29.6 degrees at Cooly and 31.4 degrees at Maroochydore. In late July! Incredible, if somewhat unsettling.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 1:50pm

Unsettling is the word.

The snakes were out last night, everyone at the pub was wearing a t-shirt and the air smells like November.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 4:03pm

you ever surfed the novelty waves of FNQ Spider?

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 7:29pm

Grew up on Maggie Is. and learned to surf at the amazing Florence Bay, cyclones were always a time of much anticipation. ..... otherwise a good SE 3 ft windswell howling onshore and squally rain...ahh the memories

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 8:00pm

Ohhh the joy..... I spent some high school years up in Cairns northern beaches.... Used to hang for those winter ridges blowing 30k se winds lol.... The cove at yorkeys, Buchans, Hartleys ck, Ratshit, "the point"......... Ohhh the humanity.......... Have got a couple of good memories though lol

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 8:38pm

sheepy, help a brother out. What do you reckon that nudist beach will be doing come (no pun intended) monday??

silentp's picture
silentp's picture
silentp Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 11:19pm

FFS....

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 8:52pm

And Novelty waves. NOVELTY??? Have you been afraid of the indignity of drowning in what is considered a waveless zone? Have you been washed in 10 times unable to get past the shorebreak of said waveless zone? (well it is a shorebreak) but suffer i have. Have you been chased by tiger sharks? But it never happened for i have no photographic evidence. And sad to say. I miss it sometimes. At least I didn't have to deal with people and everyone who saw you thought you were the duke. (other then the shark biscuits.) But have you ever seen a box jellyfish and had that same feeling as any surfer who has ever tried to get into shore quickly...;.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 8:59pm

And yeah. pack the gun spider. It's of no use in the city.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 9:01pm

And yeah. pack the gun spider. It's of no use in the city.

dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer's picture
dromodreamer Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 9:10pm

sad state of affairs in cairns city. stick to the beaches. stay in the club. look around you when you leave. I don't blame them but, sharks aren't just in the water and there is not really many people helping.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 23 Jul 2016 at 11:19pm

Dromo, you talking about the nudist beach down south? Or the one up north of Cairns? If the one north of Cairns, nahhhh........ Next week late should be novelty waves.. But I don't think that righthander will be working..... Ratshit bay maybe....
If the one down south, well..... It is a swell magnet..... And winds look good early Sunday for the southern corner..... 2 foot maybe.... Super clean.....

And Yeah, Cairns city is a hole......

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 24 Jul 2016 at 6:48am

Hmmm... Far Northern NSW seems to be picking up a little more size than the Mid North Coast. This is an earlier-than-expected-arrival of southerly swell (and against general timing expectation) - I suspect it's due to the degree of angular spreading away from the SW thru' W/SW fetch off Southern NSW yesterday (which I have previously referred to as the "axis of refraction".. whereby surf size is smaller south of this point).

That being said, most Gold Coast beaches are still tiny this morning. Ballina seems to be doing the best job of picking up this energy; it's bigger than Coffs!

Exhibit A: southerly energy hitting the Tweed Bar this morning.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 24 Jul 2016 at 3:53pm

Occasional 3ft sets on the Tweed Coast, really long lines with plenty of power in 'em too. Shame about the lack of banks and the the light northerly that ruffled the surface.

Looks tiny on the Goldy though.. Couple of small peelers at Snapper but not much elsewhere.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Jul 2016 at 8:07am

Odd winds on the Tweed Coast this morning, given the local obs on the Goldy (light W/NW thru' S/SW) and Byron (moderate to fresh W/SW). Seemed to be fresh southerly where I was, creating bumpy conditions at most of the beaches. Swell seem a little bigger and more consistent than yesterday at a few spots (say, 3-4ft sets), but others weren't picking up the swell quite as well. Buoy data shows a kick in swell period overnight too.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Jul 2016 at 12:30pm

This building S'ly swell is showing some interesting refraction patterns off the Tweed Bar. Not producing any great surf across much of the Goldy, but the swell lines are quite distinct.


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Jul 2016 at 1:04pm

Really not much happening at Burleigh.


mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Monday, 25 Jul 2016 at 3:58pm

Just got back today actually. I don't see nothing on the charts but !???

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Jul 2016 at 4:03pm

Don't see nothing about what on the charts? South swell? Tropical developments? WellyMonsters?

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Monday, 25 Jul 2016 at 4:18pm

Waves on the nudist beach up nth. Probably get a couple hair samples there any day of the week though!

I missed the few strong (1035+ hPa) highs and their ridges unfortunately though