South swells a'plenty, but with tricky winds

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd November)

Best Days: Tues: keep an eye on local wind obs, as there'll be a long period S'ly swell in the water. Wed: fun waves at most open beaches early morning, just a little undersized in SE Qld away from the swell magnets. Fri: leftover NE swell in Northern NSW with developing S'ly winds (ie southern corners peaky and fun). 

Recap: Terrible waves in general over the weekend. Small leftover S’ly swell in Northern NSW on Saturday, with freshening northerly winds ahead of a S’ly change. Hardly any surf north of the border either. Sunday saw cooling southerly winds and a small SE windswell, plus some short range E/NE swell on the Sunshine Coast, but winds were mainly SE. Today the northerlies have returned and with no swell in SE Qld, and freshening N’ly winds across the broader region, the only rideable options have been at protected northern corner in Northern NSW which are picking up a building S’ly groundswell (fun 3ft sets at south swell magnets).

Next week (Tuesday 24th - Friday 27th)

Southeast Qld: Honestly, there’s nothing of interest this week.

Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday offer the only real respite from the northerly flow - it’s going to resume with strength from Wednesday afternoon, through Thursday and possibly early Friday (at least on the Sunny Coast) - so you’ll need to make the most of the next forty hours.

Unfortunately, there won't be much surf to speak of. We’ll probably see some small NE windswell from today (1-2ft exposed north facing beaches) and a new S’ly groundswell may influence the region’s handful of south swell magnets with a occasional 2ft to maybe 3ft of long period energy, but on the whole it’s not worth getting too excited about, because local winds aren’t looking terribly flash either. 

A southerly change advancing along the coast this evening is expected to reach the border early morning (a few hours after dawn), then slow, possibly even stall off the Gold Coast through late morning and lunchtime. This creates some uncertainty as to how the local winds will pan out throughout the day, as troughs are notoriously tricky to have confidence in.

North of the change, northerly winds will persist (i.e. Sunshine Coast), though this may trend NW for a period. Regardless, there is a better-than-even chance that onshore will resume in the afternoon, possibly E/NE on the Sunny Coast and SE across the Gold Coast. But without any notable swell (the fetch trailing the southerly change now’t be significant enough for any decent surf) there’s really nothing to get overly excited about.

Short version: keep an eye on local winds Tuesday, and pounce at a south swell magnet if you see any trace of west in the northerly flow (Sunny Coast), or any weakness in the strength of the expected southerly change (Gold Coast). 

As for Wednesday afternoon through early Friday: northerly winds will generally make a meal of local conditions. 

The flow should be strong enough to whip up some local windswell but with poor surface conditions there’s nothing to get excited about. We are expecting continual southerly groundswell all week, but very little of it will make it ashore north of Byron due to the direction. 

The latest models have a gusty southerly change reaching the border on Friday morning, and extending into the Sunshine Coast by the afternoon, and this may be a little stronger and border in coverage than tomorrow’s change - so we may see some late afternoon waves across the outer Gold Coast points. But this is still early days, and November is not an ideal month for positive speculation across Southeast Queensland.  

Northern NSW: Make the most of Tuesday and early Wednesday as northerlies will ruin the surf through Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

As discussed in Friday’s notes, we have a series of southerly swells moving up the coast, of which Tuesday is expected to see the most size (3-4ft+ south facing beaches still seems a reasonable possibility, given the size increase seen in Southern NSW today).

However, only south swell magnets will pick up any appreciable size; everywhere else will be smaller due to the direction. Expect surf size to ease through the afternoon, holding in the 3ft+ range at south facing beaches into Wednesday and Thursday as a series of secondary southerly pulses move through. They'll also probably be less consistent than what we're expecting on Tuesday.

Fresh S’ly winds developing early Tuesday morning will limit the best conditions to the semi-exposed points, otherwise you’ll have to make the most of Wednesday morning’s light offshore winds and smaller southerly swells, ahead of the impending northerly flow. 

Strong N’ly winds through Thursday will whip up quite a lot of NE windswell - possibly 3-4ft at north facing beaches, particularly in the southern regions - but quality will be hard to find. Super protected northern corners should still have good options though with long period S’ly swell expected to maintain 3ft+ sets at times. 

Friday morning is probably the best chance to capitalise on this, with a gusty southerly change advancing along the coast. The leftover NE windswell could still be 3ft+ early morning, and will also be replaced by a building S’ly windswell in the wake of the change. But let’s fine tune the particulars on Wednesday.

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th)

Looks like we’ve got a mix of swells for the weekend, and some good waves for a wide range of locations - for Saturday at least. 

Friday’s southerly change is expected to generality some mid-range S/SE swell that’ll probably peak early Saturday and then ease throughout the rest of the weekend.

At the same time, we’re looking at a small building mid-range E’ly swell from an interesting tropical depression expected to meander around the Fijian region for much of the forecast period. This system looks to initially remain just outside of our swell window, so the first phase of swell energy probably won’t have much size - but there us good potential for next week.

A building ridge across the region should maintain SE winds across most coasts on Saturday - ideal for the outer SE Qld points - and wave heights are current expected to be somewhere between 2ft and maybe 3ft at most open coasts, with slightly bigger surf at south swell magnets south of the border.

Sunday may see winds swing to the northeast though no major strength is currently expected. Surf wise, it’s likely that the S/SE tending SE swell will ease but the E’ly swell will maintain. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (Monday 30th onwards)  

Looks like we’ve got some small to moderate E’ly swell for the first half of next week, originating from the Fijian depression. It’s a long time away but initial estimates would have 3ft to maybe 4ft sets at exposed beaches throughout Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday if we’re lucky. But local winds will play a crucial role here and we need quite a few more days before any confidence will come into the local models. 

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 23 Nov 2015 at 6:21pm

Chunky 3-4ft sets at Coffs, this is the biggest waves I've seen here today. Certainly promising for tomorrow further north.

islandman's picture
islandman's picture
islandman Monday, 23 Nov 2015 at 6:28pm

Well thats it if anyone needs me i will be in a padded cell just rocking back and forth for the next week .

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 23 Nov 2015 at 6:31pm

The sheer length and longevity of that fetch next week does look good. Just need that tropical depression to slide down a touch further south and even better SW and we could be game on!!!! :)

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Monday, 23 Nov 2015 at 7:04pm

Fingers crossed its got to be Our turn.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 12:12pm

I agree Don..... And with that sort of swell and local winds, A couple of breaks we have privately discussed will be on the cards..... Those in the know won't head straight to you know where...... Cheers....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 12:31pm

"With that sort of swell and local winds"... what local winds? Seems to be a little early to have confidence in the local winds given how far this east swell is away, and with the likely synoptic patterns in the leadup.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 12:52pm

"Seems to be a little early to have confidence in the local winds given how far this east swell is away, and with the likely synoptic patterns in the leadup."

No it's not.... I'm pretty confident that there will not be a dominant high ridging up the qld coast to produce a "points only" scenario ( 20k+ se winds).... Dominant highs with strong ridges up the qld coast are quite rare this time of year.... GFS and A'G both look similar.... I'd expect Sun/Mon /Tues to be the pick.....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 1:09pm

Looks like a continuation of the standard late spring/early summer troughiness, unstable synoptic pattern, which means wind changes pretty likely.

I don't have much love for these long range E swell unless they are strong and buttressed by a local tradewind fetch. They tend to be boring, super inconsistent, weakened by swell decay and very tidally affected. But if you're on the Sunny Coast and haven't had any of these consistent little S pulses that have been happening all spring then I understand the hunger.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 1:53pm

I'm not so sure this one will be as you've described Steve. The longevity of the fetch, coupled with a slowly meandering TD will mean there's considerable overlapping pulses arriving at the coast at the same time IMO.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 2:23pm

I'd love to be surprised Don. Lots of insane sand around.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 6:34am

Had another look at it this morning Don, and I'm not that jazzed. It's really nothing more than a beefed up tradewind fetch, helluva long way away. I don't think swell periods will be high enough to counteract the swell decay.
Incon 2-3ft with very, very odd bomb sets.
Tbh, these S swell pulses are much more exciting.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 7:20am

I think any SE qld surfer would die for 2-3ft with bigger bombs right at the moment Steve. The longevity of this swell should help us surf starved SE qlders too. Hopefully it's a sign of a very active summer to come. How's the S'ly groundswell this morning. Looks to be under forecast predictions from what I can see.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 8:26am

It was under-called yesterday, over-called today. Yesterday was very fun.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 10:14am

Just to confirm, yesterday was bigger than 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches, and today is smaller than 3ft+?

I just got out of the water on the Tweed Coast at a spot that picks up S'ly swell reasonably well, but certainly isn't a swell magnet - and sets were very inconsistent in the 2ft+ range. I reckon it would have been easily 3ft at more exposed spots around these parts. But there was sometimes fifteeen minutes or more between sets. The northerly kicked it in the guts around half past nine. 

I didn't surf yesterday but it seemed to be around the same size as today in the morning, just a little more consistent. Smaller in the afternoon too, from what I saw.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 10:36am

Yesterday was head high/OH on the sets at semi-exposed Points with exposure to S'ly swell. Incon, but very worth the wait.
Today is barely breaking at same spots. There was more strength in the swell yesterday and hence more surf at spots away from swell magnets, today it's fallen below that threshold and hence wave quality in the Ballina region has fallen. Not to mention the northerly.

I think the general forecast was close to good, but the reporting was way off. Yesterday given a 3/10 and today a 5 then 4/10.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 1:27pm

Ben, my contacts from south of the border from their observations yesterday and today concur with Steve's obs. Yesterday was bigger than today and today (this morning) wasn't 3ft+ down there.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 2:20pm

South of the border, or south of Byron? Under a south swell it should be a little smaller in size north of Byron, compared to south of Byron. 

I'm not overly surprised today is smaller than the estimated 3ft+ (although most surf reports were 2-3ft down there - not too far off - and Tweed was easy 2ft+ so I still think 3ft+ is plausible south of Byron - but accept that it may not have been). But in any case I was more interested to hear whether the North Coast was bigger than 4ft+ yesterday.

Main reason being is the massive variation we had in size across parts of Southern NSW yesterday - some coasts were tiny yet others were significantly higher than forecast. But I didn't see anything out of the ordinary in my neck of the woods.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 2:26pm

Not really bigger than that, it just refracted into the points better and bigger than expected.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 2:29pm

Cool, good to know. Always learning something new with these south swells, they are complex beasts.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 1:29pm

I'm with Don on this one, I like the look of this system although distant it's longevity and scope is quite good.

Local winds are the main issue but I don't think it will be that inconsistent at all with a mix of swell trains in the water.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 1:38pm

I like the look of the winds....that pattern lends itself to some small pocket backbeaches which can really amplify those E swells with phase enhancing wedging.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 1:47pm

Yep, for sure.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 2:16pm

I'm wanting that S'ly change to arrive before the peak in the swell!!!!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 1:10pm

Well, I'm also pretty confident we won't have winteresque westerlies either. Point being, the lack of the Coral Sea ridge doesn't imply poor conditions for the points. If winds are under 10-15kts it'll be quite workable, especially in the mornings. So at this stage there's plenty of opportunity for good waves right across the broader coast. 

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 3:01pm

Exactly, Ben.... That was my point..... The crowds will be thinned, as those in the know wont head to the points..... Which will be a good thing.. As long as there aren't overnight light onshores.... That is the only catch...... And one particular geographic region within this forecast can get that.....

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Tuesday, 24 Nov 2015 at 4:10pm

How you been sheepdog ? I keep complaining about the surf or lack of around here no ones seems to listen hahaha. Hopefully this is the start off a good thing.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 3:52pm

Still some 3ft sets in the Coffs region.

wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443 Thursday, 26 Nov 2015 at 5:44am

Just an FYI to add to commentary about swell Tuesday vs Wednesday. My experience north of Byron was definitely more energy in the swell Tuesday, and I surfed further south in the bay on Tuesday too. One look at swell yesterday, was no travel - glass to the horizon helped the local conditions.