South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th April)

Best Days: Tues: More E'ly swell, good winds for the beachies early morning, then semi-exposed points as winds veer S'ly. Fri: large storm swell building across the region, but winds may switch offshore in SE Qld during the day. Sat/Sun: strong but easing E'ly swell with freshening W'ly winds - another excellent weekend for the beachies (although they may be overpowered in some NSW locations on Saturday).

Recap: Fantastic waves across all coasts over the weekend, ranging from 3-4ft in SE Qld to 3ft across the Mid North Coast, all under glorious sunny skies and offshore westerly winds. Wave heights temporarily dipped this morning but have perked up again this afternoon with yet another pulse of groundswell from the same system, albeit during its passage towards the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island. As such this energy is mainly favouring SE Qld with the biggest waves. Winds have also swung southerly thanks to a change that pushed across southern NSW yesterday afternoon, and there’s a corresponding mid-range south swell building across exposed parts of Northern NSW.

This week (Apr 28 - May 1)

More of the same for Tuesday. The current E’ly swell will continue to dominate the northern reaches of SE Qld, with inconsistent 3-4ft surf across the Sunshine Coast and slightly smaller surf with increasing southerly latitude. 

Also in the mix across Northern NSW on Tuesday will be a topup of southerly swell, from the same system that generated today’s new energy. A large high in the Bight is directing fresh to strong southerly winds through the Tasman Sea, and will continue to pump out south swell for the next few days - but it will only favour exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (the swell direction and low periods won’t favour refraction into SE Qld). Tuesday should see 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves from this source at south swell magnets, with smaller surf at protected spots.

Local winds are expected to be fresh southerly across most regions for much of Tuesday, however we should see local periods of SW winds in the morning, especially in SE Qld. Once the wind swings you’ll be restricted to semi-exposed points.

The east swell should hold into early Wednesday morning before easing during the day. However the south swell will be slowly easing in size, so surfers south of Ballina will need to make the most of the early session to maximise the size. Freshening SE winds are also expected throughout the day but we should see light winds early.

Thursday looks very dynamic on the weather front, but ultimately poor in the surf department. Both the previous south and east swells will be on the way out. And winds look very ordinary: a coastal trough is expected to form off the Northern NSW/SE Qld region, possibly with an East Coast Low eventuating (although we’re not entirely sure about this yet). As this occurs, easterly winds will strengthen in most areas - mainly north of Ballina - and this will build a short range E/NE swell about the coast. 

Right now the models aren’t in much agreement about how this synoptic pattern will evolve, but there’s a strong likelihood that the coastal trough (or ECL) will gradually shift southwards over the coming day(s).

It’s important to note that locations south of the trough’s axis will experience strong E’ly winds, however locations to the north will see a westerly outflow. So the timing of the trough’s southward track is important as it’ll dictate when conditions will eventually improve. And under this kind of pattern, the Sunshine Coast would be the first surf region to see the ‘improving’ conditions, then the Gold Coast, and so on.

At this stage, Friday looks like starting off very wet, wild and wooly in most regions with gale force E/NE winds and a large storm swell in the 6-8ft range. However, there is every chance that we could see a rapid about-face throughout the day - particularly in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW - with winds veering southerly then south-westerly (see chart below for the Gold Coast, which suggests the onshores will abate early morning).

If this happens there could be some excellent and sizeable (although roguey) waves about the coast. For now, let’s keep a close eye on the mode guidance over the coming days - there probably won’t be any great deal of certainty in the specifics until a day or so before the event. 

This weekend (May 2 - 3)

Friday’s large storm swell will ease rapidly into Saturday but with rapidly improving conditions there should be some great waves across the region. In fact the Mid North Coast will probably see large waves all day as it’ll be the last region (within these forecast notes) to see the effects of the trough. Conversely, it’ll also be the last location to see an improvement in conditions.

Right now, we’re probably looking at 4-5ft+ surf across SE Qld early Saturday, easing to 3-4ft during the day, but wave heights should be bigger south of the border (maybe 6-8ft). With freshening W’ly winds around the northern flank of the low it’s currently shaping up to be another weekend of excellent beach breaks. Surf size will drop through Sunday but winds should remain from the western quadrant. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (May 4 onwards)

Despite the trough (or low) moving out of our swell window through the weekend and into early next week, we’re likely to see a broad NE infeed from the South Pacific at the same time, which will continue to supply small to moderate E’ly swells through the first half of next week, somewhere either side of about 3ft.

In fact, with an approaching Long Wave Trough slowly tracking towards our region early next week, we’ll probably see the trades restrengthen E/SE of New Caledonia, which should maintain plenty of energy from the easy through the rest of the week (model guidance has an increase later Thursday thru’ Friday and Saturday into the 3-5ft range in SE Qld… let’s wait and see!). 'Till Wednesday...