Fun swells with favourable winds for the South Coast from Friday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th August)

Best Days: South Coast Friday through early next week, tiny Mid Coast waves for the period

Recap

Tiny clean waves across the Mid Coast yesterday to 1ft, while this morning similar sized waves were seen, mixed in with the odd 1.5ft bomb under offshore winds.

The South Coast was clean and glassy yesterday morning with good 3ft sets across most breaks with a new S'ly swell, while this morning a touch less size was seen along with lumpy but OK conditions under variable winds.

This week and weekend (Aug 25 - 28)

Tomorrow isn't looking too flash down South while the Mid is expected to continue around 1-1.5ft as distant levels of W/SW groundswell continue to fill in. Early variable winds may be see on the South Coast, increasing from the S'th through the mid-morning. The Mid should be clean early before winds swing S/SE into the afternoon.

Friday is looking much better down South with a new inconsistent SW groundswell from a strong polar low firing up east of Heard Island at the start of this week.

A peak is due through the morning, with inconsistent 3ft+ sets off Middleton and 1-1.5ft sets on the Mid, easing back through the afternoon and further Saturday morning.

A light W/NW breeze is due for most of the day down South favouring slightly protected spots, with variable tending light onshore winds across the South Coast.

The weekend will be great with persistent offshore winds for the South Coast, from the N/NW Saturday and N/NE Sunday.

The surf should steady Saturday with a small reinforcing W/SW swell to 2-3ft at Middleton and 0.5-1ft on the Mid, but a slight kick in new swell is due Sunday morning from a relatively weak polar front projecting towards us over the coming days.

A slight kick back to a better 3ft if not slightly bigger is due across Middleton with 4-5ft sets at Waits and Parsons.

Next week onwards (Aug 29 onwards)

Clean conditions will continue Monday with a strong but easing N/NE wind as an intense mid-latitude low moving in from the west weakens.

Of greater importance is a strong polar frontal progression forming south of us over the weekend, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds due to be projected north-east up towards Tassie.

This will generate a strong pulse of long-period S/SW groundswell for Tuesday, coming in around the 4ft range across most breaks with 4-5ft sets likely at Waits. Conditions are looking great with a N/NE offshore.

Longer term a very inconsistent long-range SW groundswell is due next Thursday, but more on this in the next update.

Comments

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Thursday, 25 Aug 2016 at 8:14pm

Today cdc buoy spiked much higher than the sn forecast . Any explanation for the major period spike not being mentioned ? ( even secondary or tertiary no mention of it ) other sites predominantly the same too

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 26 Aug 2016 at 9:41am

Hindcast please ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 26 Aug 2016 at 9:52am

Hey Cam..

Yeah mentioned here "Friday is looking much better down South with a new inconsistent SW groundswell from a strong polar low firing up east of Heard Island at the start of this week."

I didn't mention the periods, but the low was quite strong 50kt winds, generating those large peak periods. The swell hit WA yesterday.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 26 Aug 2016 at 10:42pm

Craig I meant yesterday about 8am on cdc & cs it spiked to 15 & 11 all at once . just using the opportunity to ask while it was fresh . Also the graph has a dip at the same time as the spike . This happens a lot , can you touch on that subject ?

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Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 28 Aug 2016 at 3:01pm

Only up the mountains since after work Friday :)

And just had a look, looks like it was just a faint signal of another swell. There's been so much activity in the far swell window, if it kept staying at 15s it'd signal a stronger new swell arriving.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 26 Aug 2016 at 3:50pm

That was written yesterday sorry to confuse you but was a waiting discussion this morning

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caml Saturday, 27 Aug 2016 at 12:38am

Forget it then
It was a mundane question anyway
Just a standard undetected anomaly where the ocean always has mysteries
Likely just a short lived increase in core strength embedded within . But why do the period spikes have radical dips on graph ? There was a slight example on thurs ; cdc moreso than cs

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Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 28 Aug 2016 at 10:08am

Sorry been away from comp since Friday afternoon, will have a look today.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Sunday, 28 Aug 2016 at 10:54am

Yeah craig where ya been haha ! You probably don't have a clue seeing you been up the mountains

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caml Sunday, 28 Aug 2016 at 12:33pm

Ben this is the q ↑ top

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caml's picture
caml Sunday, 28 Aug 2016 at 4:52pm

May have Missed the chance to hindcast that one . it was interesting as I followed the storms closely there was nothing on the forecasts to suggest such a strong signal & that question about why does the period dip craig ? ?