Craig

Active period continues until late next week

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 13th September)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period

This week and next (Sep 14 - 21)

Bali: Good sized swells the last couple of days across the region, and we've still got large waves on offer across the exposed breaks this morning with a variable wind.

The swell is due to ease a little through the day, ahead of a new long-period S/SW groundswell arriving later and peak tomorrow.

Firstly though it should be said that the models are over-forecasting all these swells as Wave Watch incorrectly combines the new long-period forerunners with the existing size.

But back to the incoming swell, it was generated by a couple of back to back polar frontal systems moving on top of each other and projecting nicely up towards us the last couple of days.

We'll see the swell kicking later today to an easy 6ft+ if not a bit bigger, peaking Friday morning to 8ft on the sets at south swell magnets, and then easing through the afternoon and further Saturday.

We've then got our reinforcing S/SW groundswell energy for later Saturday and Sunday, generated by a good broad and elongated but less than favourably aligned fetch of W'ly gales.

We're looking at a kick back to 6ft+ across exposed breaks ahead of one more final reinforcing S'ly groundswell for Monday morning.

This S'ly swell is being generated by a polar fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds projecting up on the back of the fetch of zonal W'ly gales, late in our swell window south-west of WA.

With the south in the direction and shadowing of North West WA, locations east of Bali will be much smaller, and size wise, south swell magnets should see 6ft to possibly 8ft sets Monday morning (smaller on the Bukit reefs) and easing through the day, further Tuesday morning.

After this we've got one more significant and long-period groundswell before the outlook goes quite for the foreseeable future.

This swell isn't showing on the charts as well as it should, with all the mixed back to back swells this week being over-represented, but a vigorous polar low is expected to develop in the Heard Island region this evening, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W-W/SW winds being projected through our swell window through until Sunday morning when the system pushes east under Australia.

A large long-period S/SW groundswell will result, arriving late Tuesday and peaking through Wednesday to a strong 8ft across swell magnets through the afternoon, easing slowly through Thursday and Friday.

Coming back to the expected winds over the coming period and E/SE trades will kick back in from tomorrow but without much strength and remaining weak through the period.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: We should be seeing the larger S/SW groundswell for this week already building across the region and kicking to 6ft+ by dark, with a peak tomorrow morning seeing the odd 8ft set before easing into the afternoon and further Saturday.

Winds will be the main issue, fresh and gusty from the SE-S/SE owing to a strong high pressure ridge sitting to our south-west.

These winds will persist through the weekend and most of next week, possibly weakening later, but we'll review this next Tuesday.

The reinforcing S'ly swell for Sunday again won't offer too much in the way of new size, but should keep exposed south facing breaks coming in at 4-5ft.

Interestingly the acute S'ly swell for Bali is due to spread out radially towards us as it follows the great circle path, filling in Monday and peaking through the afternoon to a better 6ft across the region, if not possibly a touch bigger.

We'll see this swell fade ahead of the long-period S/SW groundswell mid-week.

Size wise 6ft+ sets are due Wednesday morning, easing back thereafter and smaller into the weekend and following week.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

jpful1's picture
jpful1's picture
jpful1 commented Thursday, 13 Sep 2018 at 6:28pm

Thanks guys. Wondering how West Java will go with this swell over the next 7 days?

NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman commented Thursday, 13 Sep 2018 at 9:07pm

Swell came in this afternoon 6-8ft

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Sep 2018 at 12:12pm

Awesome!

bigredcouch's picture
bigredcouch's picture
bigredcouch commented Friday, 14 Sep 2018 at 12:04pm

What's the go with this damned tropical depression? Third day straight of SSW onshores in Sumbawa - I'm tropically depressed.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 15 Sep 2018 at 8:28am

Not classic Ulu but id give my left nut to be out there this a.m.
with very few surfers in the water.

NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman commented Sunday, 16 Sep 2018 at 4:58pm

I’ve surfed ulus first light every morning since Thursday and it’s been good with literally no one out.
Friday morning was 6-8ft with sneaky bigger set.
Hoping tomorrow morning is 6-8.
It’s 3pm Sunday and we just witnessed a6ft plus set sneak through.
Majority of the swell is hitting temples.

NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman commented Sunday, 16 Sep 2018 at 9:03pm

The swell actually decreased in size thus afternoon as the tide dropped.
Super fun 2-4ft Uluwatu with an amazing sunset.
It was a mellow crowd with no snaking or drop ins.
Got myself a rented 7’0 Hawaiian shaped single fin so I’m hoping it’s 6ft in the morning first light as it’s party night at single fin and it’s highly likely I will have it to myself.

NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman commented Monday, 17 Sep 2018 at 10:01am

The swell actually decreased in size thus afternoon as the tide dropped.
Super fun 2-4ft Uluwatu with an amazing sunset.
It was a mellow crowd with no snaking or drop ins.

NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman's picture
NewcastleWaterman commented Monday, 17 Sep 2018 at 10:05am

No increase in size this morning (Monday)
3-4ft at Uluwatu

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 17 Sep 2018 at 10:13am

Today's reinforcing swell very south, though Margs etc were very big on the weekend as you can see in today's WOTD.

So if Ulu's 3-4ft, I'd expect those breaks open to the south on the southern side of the Bukit to hopefully be at least 6ft.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 18 Sep 2018 at 3:16pm

How's this kook at 31s here.

Chick getting a nice barrel and old mate doesn't even paddle out of the way and gets sucked over the falls? Ruining her wave but not her luckily!

This makes me so angry..

 

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