Craig

Biggest swell of the season inbound

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 19th July)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period for experienced surfers

This week and next (Jul 20 - 27)

Bali: A large new long-period and inconsistent S/SW groundswell filled in yesterday, the precursor to a much larger and stronger swell today that's providing oversized sets across exposed locations, and pumping waves for the Rip Curl Padang Cup.

This swell is due to start easing later today, but more so tomorrow, easing off from the 10ft range on the sets across exposed south swell magnets.

A reinforcing long-period S/SW groundswell will slow the easing trend into Saturday, produced by a severe low forming on the back of the progression linked to today's swell, generating a short-lived fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in our southern swell window.

This swell will be acutely more south with a touch less size getting into the protected Bukit reefs, but exposed south facing breaks look to still offer 8ft+ sets, easing through the day and smaller into Sunday.

Easing E/SE trades are still on the cards over the coming days, weakest through the weekend resulting in morning variable winds lasting longer. We'll then see the trades strengthen and pick back up through early next week and persisting through the rest of the period.

Our new pulse of long-period SW groundswell for Monday is still on track, with a mid-latitude low forming south-east of Madagascar through this week, generating a good fetch of gales, with this swell due to fill in Monday and provide 6ft sets through the day (most likely afternoon).

Of much more significance is the developments into Tuesday and Wednesday.

As touched on in previous forecasts and swell analysis articles, we're set to see another strong and protruding node of the Long Wave Trough forming in the Indian Ocean.

This node is expected to move very slowly east and effectively stall just west of Western Australia while reaching a peak in intensity, directing back to back storms more northward towards Indonesia, rather than eastward under Australia as was the case with the activity earlier this week.

With the node protruding further north than normal, we'll also see these storms push much further north in latitude, reaching a line drawn west from Ningaloo. This all points to a more consistent swell event for Indonesia, along with less size loss due to swell decay.

Looking at the structure of the frontal progression, and a mid-latitude storm has created an active sea state for a vigorous polar front to generate an expansive, slow moving fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds over.

The fetch will remain near stationary while a secondary intensification will project storm-force winds north-east at a similar speed to the swell it's producing (known as a captured fetch) an over a very large open ocean sea state.

The biggest swell of the season, and even bigger than the June 2015 Muzza swell is expected across eastern Indonesia, building through Tuesday and likely reaching 10-12ft+ late in the day across exposed breaks, peaking Wednesday morning to 12ft to possibly 15ft.

Beyond this there's plenty more large to extra-large surf to come, but more on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: We're currently seeing over-sized S/SW groundswell filling in on the coast and we'll see this swell peak later today, before easing back from 8-10ft at south magnets tomorrow morning, smaller into Saturday, bottoming out dawn Sunday.

Winds should ease off through tomorrow and become more variable, remaining so into Saturday before kicking in again from the SE-S/SE on Sunday.

The SW groundswell from the mid-latitude low is expected to arrive through Sunday afternoon across our region and kick back to 6ft on the sets, and holding a similar size through Monday.

The S/SW groundswell for Tuesday/Wednesday will be a bit more south than the Muzza swell seen in 2015 but still come in over-sized across our region, at this stage kicking to 10-12ft by dark on Tuesday and peaking Wednesday morning to 12ft+.

Winds look to ease off through Tuesday especially across the northern part of the region, and become more variable on Wednesday, but if not have a SE-E/SE tendency. More on this Tuesday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

rowanmuller88's picture
rowanmuller88's picture
rowanmuller88 commented Sunday, 22 Jul 2018 at 4:43pm

Hi Craig, I had planned to go to g-land in the coming days, but thinking I’m going to get pummeled by this forecast. Do you think eastern parts of Indonesia will still get decent size from 24-31st? Another ‘-land’ location.

Snuffy Smith's picture
Snuffy Smith's picture
Snuffy Smith commented Sunday, 22 Jul 2018 at 7:05pm

Mate no worries go surf the river mouth at the peak of the swell Chickens and 20 20s shits on T-land the crew hanging in the camp will be better than all those grumpy old cunts that go to Timor you might even see some of the best waves of your life ridden

Balls of fire

rowanmuller88's picture
rowanmuller88's picture
rowanmuller88 commented Sunday, 22 Jul 2018 at 8:19pm

Haha thanks bud!

viccokook's picture
viccokook's picture
viccokook commented Monday, 23 Jul 2018 at 1:45pm

Craig and Swellnetters,
Off to Lombok this Thursday with a few late 30's battlers basing ourselves in Kuta. We don't mind a bit of size but do want to make it home to the misses and kids.
How does this swell translate to Lombok and if going to be 6ft plus are there many sheltered spots that don't cop all the swell?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 23 Jul 2018 at 1:55pm

I'm not too familiar with that region of Lombok sorry mate, but I'm sure there are a few people that can help you in here.

kookfactor's picture
kookfactor's picture
kookfactor commented Monday, 23 Jul 2018 at 3:51pm

http://www.surfline.com/long-range-swells/indonesia/lombok_7155
3.5mtrs @ 18sec from Wednesday....dare ya to go to Desert Point. The place will be ballistic.
If not try Gerupuk bout 20 mins east of Kuta, lil boats take you to bout 5 different breaks all disciplines but expect size on this swell. Next bay round is Ekas, and again there will be size but it pumps.

viccokook's picture
viccokook's picture
viccokook commented Monday, 23 Jul 2018 at 4:11pm

Cheers kookfactor. I've been scoring some decent walls down vicco this past week but this looks next level. Excited at what will be on offer but hoping everywhere isn't maxed out for an intermediate battler like myself. I'll be packing an extra set of plums and something about 50 litres.

Womble123's picture
Womble123's picture
Womble123 commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 1:07pm

mate there will be a huge amount of water moving around on this swell; a lot of the breaks around Kuta Lombok will be more than maxed out! Watching Desert Point would be an amazing sight though if you can be bothered to trek out there.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 12:19pm

Swell on Bukit is huge at moment next few days gonna be Wild

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 12:51pm

If only we had buoys to monitor it.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 1:19pm

Opportunities...

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 1:47pm

Haha!
I have looked at that photo so many times, and still haven't figured out where it is. Thought I had a good idea, but couldn't pin it down.

Good luck to everybody going or already in Indo. I would love to plonk myself down in front of Impossibles this coming week, with my 6'10 DS and its yet to be shaped 8'6 sister, and a packet of sampoerna.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 1:42pm

I remember sitting on an inter island ferry flicking through a book and the Indo kids behind me got all excited and told me they knew the place . I’ve never been so I can neither completely confirm nor deny the veracity of their intell , though a bit of sleuthing points very heavily in that direction ....could be on though.

Good luck if anyone’s chasing it .

Keep it dark !

dandandan's picture
dandandan's picture
dandandan commented Tuesday, 24 Jul 2018 at 2:20pm

I know the spot. Reluctant to call it a 'spot' given how un-spotworthy it seemed when I was there (not for surfing). Must have been a huge swell when that photo was taken!

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