Easing surf ahead of another large S/SW groundswell Tuesday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 3nd September)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period (smallest Saturday and Sunday morning)

This week and next week (Sep 4 - 11)

The large S/SW groundswell seen through the start of the week is easing across the region, with great waves still on offer this morning.

We'll continue to see the swell drop away from the 5-6ft range across exposed breaks tomorrow morning, bottoming out through Saturday and early Sunday.

Sunday afternoon, a long-range and inconsistent S/SW groundswell generated around the Heard Island region is due, but only to an infrequent 4-6ft at exposed breaks.

Of greater significance is a larger and more powerful S/SW groundswell due later Monday and Tuesday across the region.

This has and is still being generated by a very strong polar frontal progression firing up west of Heard Island, pushing east-northeast while generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds.

This storm will weaken tomorrow, with a strong frontal system shedding off its back and pushing up and into WA ahead of the bulk of the swell.

What this will result in is a mix of moderate sized S/SW swell and larger less consistent long-range S/SW groundswell, both arriving around the same time, that being late in the day Monday.

Exposed breaks should kick to 6ft+ near dark Monday and then peak Tuesday to an infrequent 8-10ft through the middle of the day/afternoon. There's the chance for the odd bigger bomb at the peak of the swell, but that's about it.

A gradual drop in size is then due from Wednesday into the end of the week.

Winds over the coming period look pretty standard with moderate to fresh E/SE trades each day, lighter and more variable for a few hours each morning.

Longer term the Indian Ocean is expected to remain active through the coming couple of weeks, with moderate to large pulses of swell due from Saturday week, but more on this next Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:36pm

I tell ya, what a week it's been for old Gaz. I mean, sure I missed the peak of the swell but I definitely made the most of the beach time.

Met some older guy last night called Gym Banks or something. I told him he may have well been called Gary Banks cause I OWN it at the Gym. Anyway, he didn't seem to see the funny side but man did he have some tales to tell.

I reckon he's gotta be full of it, all these stories about how he discovered some spot called Bangko Bangko and loads of other places. Sounds more like a service than a surf spot if you asked me.

Must have had another guy working the bar with him as this other fella was telling me old Gym is some sort of legendary tube rider. I mean, he doesn't even have a six pack?! I doubt he's ever dominated at Blacks either, and that seems important to the knowledgeable folk on this website.

Now Gary knows how to play the ol' double team on someone at a bar, so I've got a mate to take some photos of me from the beach at Padma St today. Made sure I stayed just outside the barrel so that aside from my distinctive frame you can recognise my reef boots with the yellow flames painted on them. Old Gym is going to fall off his chair when I go back again and show him my sequence. Bet he'll never tell those tall tales again either now he's finally met someone who can really rip it up.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:48pm

Gary G for President!

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:54pm

Cheers Craig
How confident are you in the direction of Tuesday's swell? That South?
Sarge

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:56pm

I'd say between SW and S/SW.

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 6:39pm

South enough for me I think.
Thanks

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 8:48pm

Possible captured fetch ? Mystery rogue waves

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 10:08pm

That can't be right for the 14th is it?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 8 Sep 2015 at 10:36am

Not it's combinging two swells.

It's gonna be large but probably more in the 10-12ft range.