Great period ahead, largest Tuesday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 27th August)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period, experienced surfers only during the bigger days

This week and next week (Aug 27 - Sep 4)

A strong new S/SW groundswell is building across the region and this is expected to reach 6ft+ across exposed breaks this afternoon/evening and ease from a similar size tomorrow morning.

A secondary reinforcing swell is then due Sunday to the similar 6ft range across exposed breaks with light variable winds each morning, freshening from the E/SE to SE into the afternoon's.

Of greater importance is the large long-period S/SW groundswell we've been talking about for a while now, due into Monday and more so Tuesday.

Satellite observations of this storm have come in and confirmed a fetch of 35-60kt W/SW winds aimed in our swell window with the frontal progression now splitting in two and weakening.

A large long-period S/SW groundswell has been generated, with it due to travel towards us over the coming days, arriving strongly Monday afternoon. The size and consistency of the in between sets will be kept high due to one of the fronts splitting off the main progression projecting north-east, continuing to aim a healthy fetch of strong to gale-force fetch through our swell window.

Monday morning will be a low point in activity ahead of the strong afternoon kick in groundswell, reaching 8ft across exposed breaks on dark and then peaking Tuesday morning to 8-10ft with the possibility of the odd 12ft cleanup set at swell magnets.

From Wednesday the swell will tail off gradually from an inconsistent 8ft+ at exposed breaks early, further down into Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE trades are expected through the swell (lighter and more variable each morning).

Longer term we've got numerous pulses of moderate to large S/SW groundswell due from Sunday week, generated by a flurry of strong polar frontal activity.

These swells will be quite inconsistent with an initial strong long-period pulse for Sunday to an inconsistent 6ft to so across exposed breaks, wit a secondary slightly bigger 6-8ft pulse due the next Tuesday. We'll have a closer look at this in the next update though.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 10:00am

Can't wait for this! Cyclone Gary is landing in Kuta right at the same time as this swell and I've been telling EVERYONE how much I'm going to rip it up.

Had a good warm up week in France honing my craft, and even got a couple of surfs in, but the real action starts soon as Gary comes in to show y'all how its done. Look out frothers!

Larry the Goat's picture
Larry the Goat's picture
Larry the Goat Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 11:26am

Yew Garry the G
Can't wait to meet a fellow Goat in the vortex
I've been frothing over this swell, telling all my goat mates about it. Tried calling you a few times but went straight to voice mail, think your mates are pulling the wool over your eyes as they put a sheep's voice on your voice mail, haha funny goats
Hopefully can ditch the Kids off at a café and Hoof it out the Bukit
Have you been before?
I've was told after a 10ft surf the locals put you in a hot tub of water and start feeding you veggies all cut up straight into warm water, like, way more veggies than you could ever eat, even curry powder as an osmosis muscle recovery treatment to your shanks after Too many barrels. After a few minutes though it gets too hot and you have to get out apparently, that's what I herd. Gotta bale, but hay you should call me and we can spin the vortex together, I'm staying at canguu, my best mate Hazza the Herring is leasing a villa there, He's FIFO, got all the connections and scooters, still hasn't had a root though in the 8 months he's been there.
Yes, lets do this GARRY the G

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 11:38am

Yeeeeeessssss.
So the rumours are true, the Legend Larry who is scene but not herd. Break the fences, call your lawyer, ring the alarm, it's going to be 5 bells on this swell if I can contain my excitement until tuesday.

The vegetable rumours are true, although I prefer a strict recovery regime of 1 legged squats and coconut oil. I can understand how this is outside of the realm of many though. I tell ya though, there isn't going to be a likely lass in Kuta who hasn't heard all about Gazza and Lazza's plans to carve it up - We've got the whole weekend to impress people with our elite surfing tails.

More tubes please's picture
More tubes please's picture
More tubes please Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 6:30pm

G'day Craig,
Thanks for the great rundown. Been looking at a buoyweather today and they've slightly downgraded it. What's your thoughts?