Bali’s Mount Agung threatens to erupt
An increase in the number of earthquakes happening below Mount Agung in Bali over the past few weeks has authorities keeping a close watch on the situation.
The latest alert now forbids climbing of the mountain and orders evacuations within 7.5km of the summit.
Although infrequent, eruptions at Mt Agung have been among the largest recorded during the past century of global volcanic activity. More than 1,000 people died during the last eruption in 1963, however the ability to predict eruptions has improved dramatically since that event so a similar death toll is unlikely.
Mt Agung is a large volcano with a peak 3,142 metres above sea level. The mountain dominates the landscape of eastern Bali, as well as influencing local climate patterns - downslope winds from Agung provide the morning offshores at Keramas.
The 1963-64 eruption
The 1963 eruption was preceded by earthquakes. In February of that year, lava began to flow from the summit crater, eventually extending for about 7km down the northern slope. Small explosions of volcanic ash accompanied this activity.
The intensity of explosive activity developed rapidly leading to a major explosion on March 17. Simultaneously, flows of red-hot lava blocks, ash and gases tore down the flanks devastating large areas on the north and south sides of the volcano.
As it was the wet season, heavy rainfall triggered flows of mud and boulders to additional flanks of the mountain. These debris flows are called lahars, an Indonesian word that has been adopted globally. Another major explosive event occurred two months later from Agung with similar physical consequences.
What is happening now?
The ability of volcanologists to predict eruptions has improved dramatically in the past 50 years. Based on the activity that preceded the last eruptions of Mt Agung in 1963 - as well as evidence from eruptions in 1843 and several in the 16th to 18th centuries - there is growing concern that Agung might experience a major eruption in the near future.
A primary line of evidence is the frequency and locations of earthquakes beneath the volcano, caused by upward flowing magma.
Swelling and inflation of the volcano coupled with measurements of the temperatures and composition of gases emerging from the crater also give clues as to the likelihood of an eruption.
Wider consequences
Mt Agung is one of many similar volcanoes in Indonesia and the Pacific Ocean's Ring of Fire. The magmas that erupt along the Ring of Fire volcanos are rich in dissolved gases, primarily water, carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide. As the magmas rise, the release of pressure reduces the solubility of the gaseous compounds. There are many important consequences of this process, but in the case of sulphur dioxide, Mt Agung is particularly important.
During the 1963 eruption, vast amounts of sulphur dioxide were injected into the stratosphere. Sulphur dioxide reacts with water vapour to form sulphuric acid, and about 10 million tons accumulated in the stratosphere as a result of the eruption.
Sulphuric acid droplets can persist for months to years leading to small decreases in global atmospheric temperatures. In the case of the 1963 Agung eruption, the temperature drops were about 0.1-0.4℃.
The other consequence of eruptions that are typical of Ring of Fire volcanoes is the hazard presented by atmospheric volcanic ash. Disruption of air traffic is a nuisance both socially and economically, as experienced both locally for Bali, regionally in Indonesia, and globally.
What next?
Close monitoring of the activity beneath and on Mt Agung will continue. Similar “seismic crises” have not always been followed by eruptions, however it's always essential that the advice of the authorities be followed with respect to hazards presented by the mountain in its present state.
//RICHARD JOHN ARCULUS
This article first appeared on The Conversation
Comments
Mt Agung is going to save the planet by cooling the atmosphere .
First it was the East coast zephyrs . Then it was the postcard and selfie backdrop of countless holiday memories .
And now it's saving the world !
Is there anything this volcano cannot do ?
Surely a sacrifice is the in order ?
Any suggestions for the sacrifice?
There's been a huge deal on airfares from Brazil to Bali this year.
Coincidence ?
Or maybe it's part of Huey's grand plan....
Great article. Very informative.
Pretty sure Agung has a big impact on the micro climate on the east coast of Bali. ie. holding off the trade winds to later in the morning at places like Keramas.
Hmmm, I am planning to land in Bali on Tuesday. Here's hoping the locals can appease the appropriate Hindu deity.
Make sure you've got the appropriate travel insurance, BB, then hope it blows while you're there.
Sulphur cloud in the air, planes grounded, an extended Bali holiday on the insurance company's dime, there are worse scenarios.
I'm just hoping it settles back down Stu. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if it erupts like '63. I am only in Bali for a couple of days to catch up with some crew at Uluwatu, then heading east (again!). Big eruptions often do a long slow dance before they actually blow so I am mildly optimistic.
I read this morning that the snakes and monkeys are leaving the mountain.
Surely that's telling you something.
"Stay away from the mountain" I would think Blowin. If I have any concerns it is that it will do something unexpected; a much larger eruption, a sideways blast like Mt St Helens or a huge ash fall over the west side of the island. My prediction though, sorry my guess, is that if there is to be a major eruption it is still weeks away.
Yeah, try and be careful.
I can still remember seeing the fossilised remains of the Pompeii victims.
Horrible stuff.
Shhhh
Dont tell secret wind business to everyone.
Im trying to get a couple a waves here at the moment LOL
Stuck in the Gland? Oh nooooooooo
I'm in Tuban / kuta for one more day - not quite as great but back to gland may be a good idea bassoon, anyone know any decent "realnews" websites ?fuck all info here still
The ABC site seems to be the best coverage here. I had a look at The Jakarta Post online last night and it didn't even mention it!
Balinese mate showed me some pictures from around Legian in 63, looked like it was snowing the ash was that thick, lasted quite some time.
And this out of Vanuatu.....................
AMBAE VOLCANO ALERT BULLETIN No11 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department (VMGD) on 23th September 2017 at 08:31AM :
Volcanic activity at Ambae is continuing to increase. The Alert Level for Ambae volcano is raised from Level 3 to Level 4.
This means that the Ambae volcano is in a moderate eruption state. At this Alert Level, the volcanic activity is likely to continue to increase or decrease to its normal level of unrest at any time. Danger is in the Red, Grey, Orange and White dotted Zones (See map below).
With this situation, flying rocks and volcanic gas will affect the Red Zone which is about 6.5 km radius from Manaro Voui. Villages located in the Grey and Orange Zone will expect unusual volcanic hazards and ash falls can be expected around the island especially in villages exposed to prevailing trade winds direction, White Zone dotted. Acid rain may also be expected in that zone. Acid rain cause foliage fumigation hence damage garden crops.
It’s very important that authorities, communities, villages, visitors and travel agencies seriously consider this information.
The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department will continue to closely monitor this volcano activity. More information will be provided as soon as necessary.
I was just told by our agency to evacuate to Sanur. Even in Ubud there's been a string of smaller quakes, and this morning a reasonably long one. I've had my bag packed to do the runner should the feeling and this morning was told now is the time.
Last I was told the magma has gone from 9k to 6klm deep and there's a lot more people coming down the mountain now, especially in Karangasem and Buleleng. It's a funny feeling waiting for something tragic that could be seconds away or years away. I'm hoping nothing happens, but we've been told to stay in the South until further notice.
I've been caught up in earthquakes and ash clouds and the last thing you'd want to be doing is heading out on the roads. So if anyone is already in Bali I suggest getting a galon or two of water, some snacks, a handful of face masks and a pack of cards. Enough to keep you safely indoors for a few days should it happen.
Good advice Dan, I would suggest that anyone thinking of travelling there reconsider. I still have a couple of days but if my flight was tomorrow there is no way I would be going. Not much technical analysis available yet but an intensifying pre-eruption sequence has to be a serious warning that shit is about to happen. It could still calm down but that is growing less likely.
DanDan - Head North, Villa Selina area will be safe for you .... traffic will at a standstill heading sth into Sanur area.
DFAT has put us up in a hotel in Sanur, which seems strange if a big quake were to happen - i.e tsunami. It's their official "safe house" I think, so I didn't have much of a choice.
It's all a bit more surreal now though. This morning it was all earthquakes and preparation, now I'm in a four star hotel with a jacuzzi, drinking a bloody $3.50 latte, and nobody around me seems to know what could be about to happen. I should have stayed out East!
Trusting the government to know what's best for you .....interesting.
Thinking of tsunamis, I would be getting the hell out of the Gilis.
This may reveal itself to be an overreaction , but in my experience with destructive forces of nature - I'm talking cyclones - never trust anyone or anything over your own gut instinct .
Don't rely or depend on any authorities.
Err on the side of caution.
When shit goes down and people die and the finger of blame is getting pointed there's a queue for the exits and you'll soon realise that it's all care and no responsibility.
Look after yourself.
As I said , this may come to pass as a huge over reaction , but I wouldn't be heading to a 2nd world country preceeeding a possible natural disaster in order to potentially claim a couple of uncrowded Racetrack pits.
Doesn't seem to be any news coming out of Bali this morning. No news is good news?
Not much has changed and there was a dip in activity last night. Pre-emptive measures continue though: small boats to the Gili islands have ceased due to the effect of small quakes on sea conditions, and airports in Java and Lombok have started preparing for flights to be redirected there if something happens.
Rio Helmi is putting out good updates from the camps set up for those who have come down from the mountain on Ubud Now and Then on FB. There's a co-ordinated effort from all sorts of relief organisations, midwives and doctors and animal NGOs trying to get livestock off the mountain.
Who knows if anything is going to actually happen. Way up the other end of Indonesia, Gunung Sinabung was sending lava high up into the air last night. There's camps of refugees up there with tens of thousands of people who have been dislocated since it starting erupting a year ago. We're pretty luck in southern Australia to be free of this kind of unpredictable and potentially unending natural disaster... At least you can try and put out a bushfire, or mitigate the risks in some ways.
Thanks for the update Dan. I hope you are grabbing a few waves while waiting.
Yeh mate,hope it doesn't get bad down there and yeh Sinabung 's a regular smoker,cheers.
This stuff is way out of my knowledge area, but the data and analysis is interesting reading nonetheless:
http://swllnt.com/2xya632
Thanks Ben. These rumblings can go on for a long time before an actual eruption, so in the end it is still mainly guesswork. The scary number in there is the speed of the lahars, 10km in 3minutes is 200km/hr! And that number is probably conservative. I will stock up on some good quality face masks before I go. Short of something on the scale of Tambora Kuta and the Bukit should be safe. My main concern is getting stuck there in a hotel room until the ash settles.
Latest ABC report says "the tremors rocking Bali's Mount Agung are continuing to increase in intensity and frequency, suggesting an eruption is imminent".
"Seismographs connected to monitoring equipment on the volcano recorded more than 800 tremors until 6:00pm yesterday."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/eruption-imminent-on-mount-agung-a...
Mount St Helens, 1980. The largest landslide in history preceding a big fuck off blast.
Staggering.
I remember the Nat Geo edition of Mount St Helens.. was one of those issues I always kept coming back to read as a kid. Fascinating stuff.
Mt St Helens was a mere pimple on the scale of historic eruptions. Even Krakatau was nothing compared to Tambora, which itself was a burp compared to Toba. Here's hoping Agung stays within its historic limits.
I hope so too. Still waiting to hear this at any moment..
Love that video. And that Mount Saint Helen's vid is nuts.
Not the same scale but you'll love this one
Wow!
Quick sale !
http://mailchi.mp/realestatebali/price-reduced-villa-for-sale-in-canggu-...
Crazy low , low prices.
Meanwhile theres some nice waves running thru Ulu with only a handfull out .
"Mt St Helens was a mere pimple on the scale of historic eruptions. Even Krakatau was nothing compared to Tambora, which itself was a burp compared to Toba. Here's hoping Agung stays within its historic limits."
Well, here's hoping whatever happens that comparisons with Krakatoa are not called for.
Was going to be there in the next month, same time as the last few years, but life got in the way of any visit this year. For the best, I wouldn't like to be going over at the moment.
Hope everyone over there keeps safe, and probably best to get out of there earlier rather than later.
All quiet in Kuta.
Now that you've gone to bed, blindboy! Good to have a Bintang with you this evening, mate. Travel safe, and watch that pre-eruptive tension.
Still on Sydney time Phil. Woke up at 4 and worked for a couple of hours! Always glad to share a beverage with you and Jackie.
The Thanks again for you help.
Stay safe, all of you who are there already.
Ms Island Bay and I are/were supposed to go soon. I am booked to fly to Bali 3 October, then straight to Bima/Lakey next morning. My wife would be flying over 7 October, spending a week with her mum before meeting up with me for a week on the Bukit.
This all seems like a very risky proposition now, with a good chance that we'll be stranded in separate places. Damn!
Will be following development very closely - and listening to good advice.
Just heard on the radio the Volcano could just be hours away from erupting. In saying that not sure how true or accurate their sources are .
Thanks Island Bay. Things are very calm here and life is going on as normal except for those caught up in the evacuation. I will be looking online for somewhere to make donations as those people are really doing it tough and likely to face continuing disruption to their lives whatever happens from here. I can't see that there is any significant danger to this end of the island. The most likely outcome is inconvenience, which is always manageable. If I was you I would come. If the airport does close it is more likely to be days rather than weeks. (The advice here is of a general nature and blindboy takes no responsibility for the consequences of following it!)
Are you in Kuta still BB or out on the bukit?
Kuta might actually be alright if half of the aussies heading there suddenly decided to stay home!
Stay safe bloke and if she does go off enjoy the show!
I will be on the Bukit this arvo, fly out east tomorrow for 10 days then back for a couple more days. Not sure that there will much to see, more likely to hear it as distant thunder/gunfire. Oh and anyone coming should throw in a few packs of good (allergen standard) face masks. If you don't need them someone else certainly will if the eruption occurs.
BB, if your 'out east' is the same is mine, and if we end up going, then look for a 6'2 Byrning Spears deep six and say hello. Happy travels!
I will be on a clear 6'4" Simon staying at Dino's
Reporting of a bad flu /virus going around the camp ..which will spread real quick around Kuta area flying east is a good move.
The kuta virus has been around for years Udo !
I think I caught that after every night at the bounty.
Self diagnosed of course!
If Agung does blow it's top and the flights are cancelled, no doubt we will see a pack of stupid whinging Aussie bogans complaining how much their forced extended stay is costing them.
I will be screaming at the TV "Buy travel insurance you brain dead bogan rather than saving the cash for extra bintangs at the midget wrestling."
Travel ins/air tickets must have been purchased before Sept 15th to have cover.....or something like that ??
Im imagining racetracks just peeeling right now with no one around and desert point if theres any swell
its 2017 mate, not the 70s
LOL!
LOL!
LOL!
Nah mate.
This place is packed as normal.
Quakes in mexico, fiji, now volcanoes...obviously a correlation?
No.
I would have thought Vanuatu's recent volcano's activity, Fijis recent earth quakes along with Agung would have some sort of link. Pacific ring of fire, all relatively close together and in a small time frame. No correlation?
Possibly at a small regional level (i.e. Fiji/Vanuatu), but unlikely at a global scale (i.e. Mexico/Agung).
http://www.earthobservatory.sg/faq-on-earth-sciences/are-earthquakes-and...
There's also been suggestions that Volcanic Eruptions are tied to Lunar Cycles:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/02/0215_020215_volcanohunte...
Solar Sunspot minimums are often linked by people more so than Lunar Cycles . But i believe both have an influence under similar scenarios of " Land Tides "/ atmospheric tides .
La Nina transition could also be argued with the WPWP often at its lowest ebb as the La Nina builds . TWT . But researchers have been warning for Decades that we are due for a mega eruption soon . I would also suggest that East of Bali may not be as safe as usual for this time of year as i think the change to Monsoonal patterns will be swift when it arrives !?
Nice steady trades on the roof top bar tonight southey, but yeh I am glad to be out of Bali. The eruption that eventually happens may not be the one they predict.
May be drawing a long bow, but what about hurricanes and earthquakes? There's been a huge amount of atmospheric activity adjacent to Mexico. Maybe all the pressure changes have some effect on pent up stresses in the earth's crust?
PS Mexico's volcano is smoking as well. Makes you wonder how many volcanoes are going off on any given day, not just when our focus is narrowed based on Bali hype.
This was Sinabung in North Sumatra a few days ago.
https://www.facebook.com/endrolewa/posts/529046967436290
Yeh mate ,Sinabung is a regular smoker .
And Monaro in Vanuatu warming up as well
We are supposed to be travelling to Bali a week tomorrow and have booked to stay for 4 days on the gilli islands. Does anybody know if boats are still travelling there? And if it is risky?
Thanks in advance
Im in bali at the moment.
People have been evaced from mount agung because pressure has been building.
Maybe nothing will happen , but if it does flights will get canceled and you may get stuck for awhile.
Ketut told me of some people that checked the crater out 2 days ago and there is alot of activity that isnt normal. No one can say its safe but nothing is certain.
Come by all means , just dont whinge if you get stuck. Plus as someone else pointed out. A really good earthquake from agung could send a decent tidal wave to the gillies.
But hey, its not uncrowded, its still packed over here. Lol
Five weeks later, and: "Mount Agung: Bali volcano's alert status lowered after decreased activity.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-30/bali-mount-agung-volcano-threat-de...
bump
"Indonesian authorities raise the Mt Agung volcano alert to the highest level and order people within 10 kilometres to evacuate, as the country's disaster management agency warns "a potential eruption could happen anytime".
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/mt-agung-indonesia-authorities-ext...
All flights into and out of Denpassar cancelled. Worse to come, sooner or later, I would think.
(2019 update)
Bali Flights Cancelled after Mt Agung Volcano erupts...again.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-25/balis-mt-agung-volcano-erupts-for...
https://www.baliairport.com/flight-status-arrivals-departures/
This link details 'Volcanic' Cancelation Airline Policy...(ignore school info...)
https://www.choice.com.au/travel/on-holidays/airlines/articles/your-righ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932019_eruptions_of_Mount_Agung
How's the video in the ABC video, nuts.