Indonesia swell: Bigger than Muzza

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

We're right in the thick of an overactive swell period across the Indonesian archipelago, not to mention southern Australia.

A very large long-period S/SW groundswell is currently filling in across most locations, with pumping waves for the Rip Curl Cup, and while it's the biggest swell so far this year, we're looking at an even bigger swell next week.

As discussed in last week's article, the south-east Indian Ocean is experiencing the most active storm period in years due to consecutive nodes of the Long Wave Trough moving through the region.

The second node was forecast to be the strongest and most northerly protruding of the two, and we're now seeing this come to fruition with the biggest swell of the season so far due to hit Indonesian and West Australian coasts next week.

This node is expected to move very slowly east and effectively stall just west of Western Australia while reaching a peak in intensity, directing back to back storms more northward towards Indonesia, rather than eastward under Australia as was the case with the activity earlier this week.

With the node protruding further north than normal, we'll also see these storms push much further north in latitude, reaching a line drawn west from Ningaloo. This all points to a more consistent swell event for Indonesia, along with less size loss due to swell decay.

Looking at the structure of the frontal progression, and a mid-latitude storm has created an active sea state for a vigorous polar front to generate an expansive, slow moving fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds over.

The fetch will remain near stationary while a secondary intensification will project storm-force winds north-east at a similar speed to the swell it's producing (known as a captured fetch) an over a very large open ocean sea state.

Under a captured fetch scenario we see faster and larger than normal wave growth and this will help push this swell into the XXL range with forerunners of 21 seconds, with the bulk of the groundswell coming in at an amazing 18-19 seconds.

This will produce very large and dangerous surf across most exposed locations (the largest of the season), building through Tuesday and likely reaching 10-12ft+ late in the day across eastern Indonesia, peaking Wednesday morning to 12ft to possibly 15ft.

The swell should impact the Mentawai islands only a couple of hours later, with magnets kicking to 10ft to likely 12ft on dark, peaking Wednesday morning to 12ft+.

The last swell of this magnitude was the June 2015 Murray Close (Muzza) swell. Comparing the two, this swell will have a touch more south in it, yet it'll be bigger for eastern Indonesia, pushing above the heights of three years ago.

For Western Australia, most, if not all, of the swell will go to waste, owing to the position of the Long Wave Trough just off the coast, bringing strong to gale-force onshore westerly winds.

Following Tuesday/Wednesday's XL swell event, follow up oversized groundswells are expected late week and into the following weekend, continuing the run of exceptional Indonesian swell.

For any changes to the timing and sizes regarding this swell, keep an eye on the Indonesian and regional Australian forecaster notes.

16 Day Uluwatu Forecast Graph
16 Day Uluwatu WAMs
16 Day Mentawai Forecast Graph
16 Day Mentawai WAMs

Comments

Wakebsa's picture
Wakebsa's picture
Wakebsa commented Thursday, 19 Jul 2018 at 12:40pm

The trusty 8'2" Dylan is gona need an engine

dandandan's picture
dandandan's picture
dandandan commented Thursday, 19 Jul 2018 at 8:10pm

Far out. What an amazing run of waves.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Friday, 20 Jul 2018 at 12:32am

Big wave coming to bali !

Lakemac's picture
Lakemac's picture
Lakemac commented Friday, 20 Jul 2018 at 7:17pm

Thanks on behalf of surfers around the country for putting inaccurate surf forecasting behind your ‘pay wall’. A deed that will not go unnoticed.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT commented Saturday, 21 Jul 2018 at 10:50pm

No one respond to this troll, he only wants some steam.

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Monday, 23 Jul 2018 at 11:54am

Last weeks swell was missing most of the reefs that I saw in Indo with the exception of Padang & Kuta reef due to the direction of the swell on Thurs & Friday however the nxt three days saw it settle a notch & line up better on the reefs over a broader distribution. It's interesting with these larger swells that are basically too big & intense for most locations (including places like G-land & outside corner) however if you have the knowledge time & money to get to certain reefs & point set ups that lay quite but do fire up on these intense Indian ocean mega swells. At the moment I'm recovering after several stitches to a head wound compliments of an Austrian surfer(ha, ha) who went over the falls right on top of me in 4ft waves at a nice right-hander up the coast with only 3 of us in the water. Should have kept the Gath stack hat on that I'd worn on the bigger days! IDIOT!!!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Monday, 23 Jul 2018 at 12:25pm

BaliBelly insta - 2nd pic a few of young fellas having a go at big Ulu

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:02pm

Def bigger than Muzza..

 

Very large Uluwatu .. biggest I’ve seen !! #tmurphyphotography

A post shared by Trevor Murphy Photography (@tmurphy_photography) on

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:09pm

Terrible quality footage but excellent wave, incredible wave in fact, from a tow surfer at huge Ulus...

 

A post shared by Cosmo (@mjwear12) on

Graeme Murdoch's picture
Graeme Murdoch's picture
Graeme Murdoch commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:08pm

Haven't seen a board trail like that since a Captain Goodvibes animation...

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:17pm

That guy is ripping ...fucking monster wave !

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:22pm

Jesus fucking Christ

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:25pm

What a lucky bastard!
Beautiful wave, well surfed.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:26pm

Like a shooting star, can only see his trail of whitewash.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 2:48pm

nate_geier insta
marlon gerber insta for some Keramas action

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 3:52pm

Udo...
Copy link, paste.
Not that hard brother

Bob Sacamano's picture
Bob Sacamano's picture
Bob Sacamano commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 3:58pm

You cant even see the bloke to gauge how big it is, which is enough to demonstrate the fact its monstrous! What a ride!

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 4:11pm

If there was a multiplier for size of wave * length of ride - how does that wave measure up? One of the longest big waves I've ever seen.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 4:24pm

Mark Healy is in indo he should be out there paddling that

Haydos's picture
Haydos's picture
Haydos commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 4:32pm
Womble123's picture
Womble123's picture
Womble123 commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:18pm

That is epic. what a wave.

Womble123's picture
Womble123's picture
Womble123 commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:18pm

That is epic. what a wave.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 4:51pm

Keramas..

 

Keramas this morning.. volume up

A post shared by Marlon Gerber (@marlon.gerber) on

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:11pm

Gra whats Tenngerra report?

Graeme Murdoch's picture
Graeme Murdoch's picture
Graeme Murdoch commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:18pm

Hey mate. Tenggara's on tradewind hiatus for the moment. But ye gods it'd be macking (der, Gra). I nipped up there about a month ago & fell a little in love with that lineup, though the trades were already being unkind... Where you based Udo?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:32pm

What an amazing wave.
Any word on who the tow surfer is?

Did he break the speed record or what?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:43pm
udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:51pm

Pato Teixeira ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:53pm

Andrei..?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 5:59pm

Crazy ......en Russians!
What a charger!

Can you embed this one?
It has multiple stills.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BlpZFGZB5VT/

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 6:01pm

Wow, monster, thanks Lostdoggy..

 

25.07.18 Massive swell in Bali Сегодня утром упала бомба на Улувату,парни в коллаборации решили пораслабляться на больших волнах :русский бигвейвер Андрей Овчинников @dolphinsurfandrei и бразилец Eloy Lorenzo @eloylorenzojunior ,устроили мощный тау-серфинг(разгоняли друг друга на джете)на споте,ну а мне удалось заснять несколько кадров этого дня на камеру . Поддержите парней это был денёк который останется в истории этого спота ,и русского бигвэйв райдинга респект парни ,you’re have really big balls ...все фото @alexander_vasiliev_ This morning a bomb fell on Uluwatu, the guys in the collaboration decided to weaken on the big waves: the Russian bigwaver Andrey Ovchinnikov @dolphinsurfandrei and the Brazilian Eloy Lorenzo @eloylorenzojunior ,arranged a powerful tau-surfing (dispersed each other on the jet) on the spot, well, I managed to shoot a few shots of that day on camera. Support the guys it was the day that will remain in the history of this spot, and the Russian bigwave riding Respect guys, you're have really big balls...all photography @alexander_vasiliev_

A post shared by Alexander Vasiliev (@alexander_vasiliev_) on

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 6:40pm

That surfer was Russian????

Was it Poots?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 6:48pm

Appears to be a Russian/Brazilian teamed up.

Andrey Ovchinnikov & Eloy Lorenzo jr.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 6:42pm

Brazilian dude in the video. Saw his name on some other insta post, but can’t find it on my phone.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Wednesday, 25 Jul 2018 at 6:46pm

https://instagram.com/p/BlpPiZjBYhl/

Eloylorenzojunior, apparently.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2018 at 9:27am
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2018 at 5:45pm

Wow. Wave of a lifetime. To think he nearly hit the eject button...sometimes you never know if you never go. Hellman!!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2018 at 5:08pm

What a pic..wild explosion
Any think out there from Kandui ?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2018 at 6:20pm

too big for Grajagan?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 26 Jul 2018 at 6:26pm

Joyos got a couple of pics..12 to 15 ft - one looks bigger to me.

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Friday, 27 Jul 2018 at 10:30pm

https://thewest.com.au/news/bali/hotels-villas-flooded-as-bali-battered-...

"Ferries have been cancelled, hotels evacuated and holiday villas flooded in Bali.

"King tides are being blamed for waves as big as 6m in Bali’s south that has caused flooding in Sanur and Kuta.

Tourists have been stranded on the Gili Islands where authorities have cancelled ferry services until at least Saturday."

King tides ?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 30 Jul 2018 at 2:24pm

Bukit getting smashed yet again:

http://balibelly.com/uluwatu/

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Monday, 30 Jul 2018 at 2:29pm

One guy out at Impossos!
Oh to be there with my DS.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 30 Jul 2018 at 2:37pm

Tow team have arrived at Impossibles.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Monday, 30 Jul 2018 at 2:44pm

Anyone got a Indo contact that can report on how the rockwall[s] at Nikko handled last weeks big stuff ?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 31 Jul 2018 at 6:46am

Healys heavily glassed Padillac can survive macking Nias but not Lion Air baggage handlers its now in 2 pieces !

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 2 Aug 2018 at 6:05pm

Heavy report about Jay Davies from over at Ski.com.au

"Young bloke was telling me today that Jay Davies almost lost his life at Scar Reef on the out of control day last week.
Huge huge rogue set cleaned him up. 3 wave hold down pulling him over the entire length of the reef. Jamie Mitchell rescued him on the ski (blue faced) before telling those few out there (getting towed) it was unsafe to continue...........not another wave was ridden or attempted after the incident."

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 2 Aug 2018 at 6:22pm

So many close calls from that swell...A 3 wave hold down holy fuck !
Nias seem to have heavily flogged so many Exp waterman Healy etc
Elliot P Reid said worst flogging ever and a blackout..

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 8 Aug 2018 at 2:31pm

Holy Jesus that Framegrab of Healy on Beachgrit...Faaark !

Latest News

John Witzig exhibition at Bondi

Stu Nettle

Images from a golden age.

Quarter-finalists decided at tiny Teahupoo

Even Turpel couldn't talk it up.

Photos: The Shieldsy Chronicles - Telo Islands

Stu Nettle

Looking back on July in the Telo Islands.

Watch: Parko's last lap at Teahupoo

Stu Nettle

Parko reflects on scary times and rip offs at the end of the road: "They're just judges, they got excited and weren't sure what to do....Mick will vouch for that."

Noosa Festival of Surfing gets a reboot

World Surfaris sign on a multi-year deal to host the festival.

Watch: Tyler Newton // Nias

Stu Nettle

The surfer with the best strike rate from the 'Captain Timmy' swell.

Watch: The O'Riginals with Lachlan Rombouts

Stu Nettle

"If you wake up and you're not living the life of your dreams then it can hurt." Lachlan Rombouts reflects on big waves and simple pleasures.

'Never Town' East Coast shows

Stir up the spirit of kinship with live screenings of Never Town.