Forecast: Oi Rio Pro

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Rightio, where we we? Ah yeah, three comps down and on the road to everyone's favourite CT event, the Oi Rio Pro.

The tour has been thrown off kilter by first the cancellation of the Margaret River Pro and then the spotlight-stealing hubbub of the Founders' Cup at Lemoore. It's time to regroup and consider how best to milk a backwash-riddled semi-closeout beachbreak.

Looking at the forecast and we'll see fairly typical conditions leading up to the Oi Rio Pro with moderate pulses of mid-period southerly swell with favourable winds.

There's a chance competition will get underway this Friday, the first day of the waiting period. Morning offshores should create clean conditions with easing 2-3ft sets out of the south, though condistions will fall apart into the afternoon as sea breezes develop.

After that, a flurry of new south swells are due from Sunday through to Wednesday, the biggest arriving on Tuesday.

These will be generated by a couple of small lows moving off the the South American continent, projecting strong to gale-force S/SW winds through Rio's swell window.

An initial increase in swell will be seen Sunday, building to 3-4ft into the afternoon under onshore S/SW winds.

Monday will be clean but the swell will drop back to 3ft ahead of Tuesday's better swell. It's then that we'll see good 4-5ft sets out of the south and with a morning offshore, though again the afternoon sea breezes will knock it about. Wednesday morning will be fun as Tuesday's swell eases with a morning offshore. Expect small to tiny waves on Thursday.

Another similar if not slightly bigger episode of southerly swell is due next weekend, the end of the waiting period.

Check our live event site through the waiting period for ongoing commentary surrounding each days surfing.

Comments

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 12:59pm

‘everyone’s favourite event’

absolute classic craig :)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 1:14pm

What, it's not your favourite ;)

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 2:16pm

LOL still laughing !!!!--!!-!

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 1:40pm

nothing beats a backwash-riddled semi-closeout beachbreak (i was on one all morning) except watching someone else milk one :))

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 2:27pm

will still be more entertaining than the wave pool event last weekend

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 4:32pm

I think id honestly rather watch the wave pool event.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 4:50pm

I reckon it might've been deliberately scheduled that way.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 5:25pm

Still looking forward to it. After the coitus interruptus of WA, and the underwhelming pond event, it'll be great to see real waves and lots of people on the beach.

FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters Saturday, 12 May 2018 at 12:54pm

Typical WSL selling out to all the brazos and keeping an event with the worst waves on the tour. Get rid of rio and keep cloudbreak on the the schedule

dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 Sunday, 13 May 2018 at 8:03pm

Lots of Brazos = lots of $$kaching. If theyr'e not under the poverty line. Is it obvious I don't know much about Brazil???

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman Monday, 14 May 2018 at 1:23pm

Not sure if you have noticed we once had the Dream Tour , now we will have the "was Dream tour!"
Fiji could not tip in the $'s needed , even though Kelly had Outerknown agree to 3 years , France is gone next year , no Pipe event , but now Pool events....

so the WSL is just about making $'s , which is their's and Kelly's right , as so far $300m has been invested , and they want a return so whatever makes $'s is the driving force behind all of this , but the question remains how many surfer/consumers are they losing by deleting the Dream Tour?

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Monday, 14 May 2018 at 2:04pm

It's interesting isnt it ? Yes they are going backwards.
Though as surfers we are going forwards. People are coming back to supporting grass roots companies and knocking on the doors of the actual shaping bays of their respective towns. Or in my case building my own boards and products.
We have new forms of media outlets . I.e this site and others
It's disruption and it's creative destruction.
We no longer need the corporations to wash us feed us or dress us for that matter. They are still there, they just don't have the same force. It's a changing world but to quote owl Chapman " the wave hasn't changed" .
Surfing is different for everyone . Everyone has a different experience.

CMC's picture
CMC's picture
CMC Monday, 14 May 2018 at 2:39pm

Correct, WSL will steer toward what they can get the best return from.
It will create a new breed of surfer, probably and mostly one that lives inland and will see the wave pool as a skatepark equivalent. If they can get a return from this they won't give a toss about whether current day(ocean) surfers are interested in their pools and the comps they will have in them. Might take a few years (3-5) but it looks like it will happen.
Good thing I reckon, it might slowly reduce the number of people in the water at the beaches.

Mojo62's picture
Mojo62's picture
Mojo62 Monday, 14 May 2018 at 3:14pm

Just look at how many Brazil nuts are on the tour these days, its because most of the QS Comps are run in shit small waves
that suits there style. Look how quick Medina wanted to avoid Margaret River cause he can't power surf with style like the rest of the Brazilians .

Bshop_feez's picture
Bshop_feez's picture
Bshop_feez Monday, 14 May 2018 at 3:23pm

strange few weeks for "pro" surfing, not exactly going in the direction id like to see it go but mehhhh if wave pools, backwash and being scared of the ocean are how the WSL want to play it then that can have their $$$ id rather watch the Rio Dockers. sure something will give, think reverse World Series cricket

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson Tuesday, 15 May 2018 at 8:46am

Is claiming part of the judging criteria in getting a score above 7 in Brazil?Almost every wave scored above a 7 is getting claimed, and most are only a couple of turns. It’s not just Brazzies either but pretty much everyone. Brazil’s new judging criteria - Speed, power, flow, innovation and some exciting fist pumps!

GreenCT's picture
GreenCT's picture
GreenCT Tuesday, 15 May 2018 at 9:39am

I hope one day someone with the resources just takes some cameras and some commentators to swell events like the code red swell, Jaws sessions etc
I found the giant Cloudbreak and code red swells far more riviting than the vast majority of competition broadcasts except when they have exceptional waves