Forecast: Teahupoo - It's been a while

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It's been a while since we've seen Teahupoo proper. Apart from the odd double-overhead day, the reef at Passe Havae hasn't been hit by anything approaching tow size for years.

The reason can be put down to the lack of strong storms sliding up past New Zealand's east coast, but why this occurred would require further investigation and is beyond the scope of this article.

However, this Saturday a large long-period SW groundswell is due to hit French Polynesian Island and finally awaken big Chopes.

Owen Wright standing tall way back in 2016 - Tim Bonython

Teahupoo's ideal swell window is directly off New Zealand's east coast, with fearsome west swells originating from strong polar storms projecting north-east up into the Pacific Ocean. These are created when the Long Wave Trough sits just east of New Zealand steering storms north-east along this path.

Currently, a deep low has formed between Tasmania and New Zealand and will move into Tahiti's south-western swell window this afternoon. It's worth noting this low has moved through Cloudbreak's swell window and will produce large pumping surf this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Coming back to the storm, it will continue east instead of taking the ideal path up past New Zealand's east coast. This will put a cap on the size hitting Teahupoo. If it tracked more north-east we'd be seeing something truly spectacular.

However, with core wind speeds reaching 55-60kt and the broader fetch being mostly greater than 40kts we'll still see a large long-period groundswell created, with peak periods growing out to just over 20 seconds.

New Zealand will see XXL surf tomorrow, while the long-period forerunners are expected to arrive across Tahiti Friday evening and build through Saturday, reaching 8-10ft by the afternoon, with the chance of the odd bigger cleanup. This looks to be one of the better swells of recent times, especially with such large swell periods.

Beyond Saturday's SW groundswell additional large S/SW groundswells are due through next week as the Long Wave Trough stalls slightly east of New Zealand.

This will steer a flurry of back to back polar fronts through Tahiti's swell window, with the surf expected to ebb and pulse between 6-8ft from Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week with fresher easterly trades.

Tim Bonython will be heading off this Thursday to capture the week of swell, and with the lack of waves over the past couple of years, there's sure to be plenty of action and carnage. Keep an eye on the site for the latest on how the swells play out.

Comments

Tarzan71's picture
Tarzan71's picture
Tarzan71 Tuesday, 8 May 2018 at 6:27pm

I wonder if we could fence this in, erect a few stadiums on the reef, sell weekend passes, beer pouring rights and really turn ole Chopes into a rival for the hot tub.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Tuesday, 8 May 2018 at 8:50pm

Gary can help with the erection, Tarzan

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 8 May 2018 at 9:36pm

That post goes directly to the Gary G Trophy Room.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 9:52am

Watch out for the " big wave hold downs" gazzy.

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron Tuesday, 8 May 2018 at 7:42pm

This is why we need open contest windows. Teahupoo will be 10 foot but instead we suffer through 2 foot beachies in Brazil.

crip's picture
crip's picture
crip Tuesday, 8 May 2018 at 10:44pm

No, we don't have to suffer them (crap Brazil beachies), the pros and circus hangers-on losers have to suffer them.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 4:13am

As the associated front crossed the lower South Island (NZ), one AWS recorded a mean speed of 85 knots. This is one fierce system.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 9:21am

Not surprising with this satellite grab..

radiationrules's picture
radiationrules's picture
radiationrules Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 9:47am

all in one week the gods are presenting the great divide for all to observe, the latest in man-made entertainment vs. man-made as a micro-dot within nature, time immemorial .

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 10:47am

>>Keep an eye on the site for the latest on how the swells play out.

hope to see pics and footage from cloudbreak too

scoopmaster's picture
scoopmaster's picture
scoopmaster Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 12:10pm

Any reports of XXXXXXL waves from South island NZ?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 12:48pm

Haven't heard or seen anything yet, but will check.

Btw, we had an incredible swell run up the east coast of NZ Thursday 26 April: 8ft @ 17s. That surely must have lit up Tahiti.

Duesouth's picture
Duesouth's picture
Duesouth Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 5:29pm

A few tow crews were on it at dawn on Wednesday. Good wind, pretty clean, looked about 6x overhead. Heard a few paddled it later in the morning. Biggest in a few years was the rumour I heard.

inzider's picture
inzider's picture
inzider Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 3:30pm
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 7:25pm

Yep, the East Coast of NZ has been relatively quiet on the SW swell front for a couple of years now. (the exception is Dunedin South which gets WSW swell from the West Coast -ie it's basically never flat down there and they get a lot of big swells with quite bit of west in them that miss the rest of the east coast altogether.) Anyway, no real decent run of back to back big swells for a while. The last big year was 2015, which was off the charts.
The last six weeks or so have been pretty decent really and there are a number of set-ups predicted to roll through over the next week or two. Island Bay mentioned the swell last Thursday which was pretty exceptional, but there was also one straight South swell a week earlier that blew a few minds round here. Your's truly had his best day of surfing for a couple of years!
Every dog has it's day and it looks like the surf gods are shining on us at the moment, and by extension those lucky buggers who can afford to swan off to Tahiti.

2Deep4Air's picture
2Deep4Air's picture
2Deep4Air Wednesday, 9 May 2018 at 9:07pm

"It's worth noting this low has moved through Cloudbreak's swell window and will produce large pumping surf this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning". Why is this swell not reflected on the Cloudbreak detailed forecast? It still says only 3-4ft... Interested cos I'm Fiji bound in a coupla week myself. Hoping for a node in the long wave trough to line up...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 9:59am

Both the Wavewatch model and our algorithm generally under call Cloudbreak's size, so with these combined it's only showing 4-5ft.

I'd be expecting sets to 6-8ft very late in the day Friday and Saturday morning across Fiji.

Usually with normal swell energy you can add a couple of feet onto the forecast.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 10 May 2018 at 9:40pm

The largest wave ever recorded in the Southern Ocean. An incredible 23.8m off New Zealand's Campbell Island.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 11 May 2018 at 1:17pm

And Hsig just missed the all time greatest ever recorded in the world.

https://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/surf-s-really-up-largest-w...

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 11 May 2018 at 1:19pm

20 sec period is fcking impressive given it's the eye of the storm. shows how much energy is in those largest waves. These aimed at Chopes? Or further to the east?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 May 2018 at 1:22pm

Mostly to the east, but the ASCAT and a reading like this wouldn't surprise me if it comes in a bit over forecast, which would be very well received. 

Fieldy's picture
Fieldy's picture
Fieldy Sunday, 13 May 2018 at 8:09pm

so what is the latest on Chopes. Is swellnet going to put some footage up?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 13 May 2018 at 8:13pm

Apparently it didn't really show today which is very surprising looking at the satellite observations. The track wasn't ideal but very significant. Thursday's swell is looking similar size so lets hope that performs!

Fieldy's picture
Fieldy's picture
Fieldy Sunday, 13 May 2018 at 9:34pm

Cheers Craig