Forecast: Easter Long Weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

And just like that we're already at Easter!

New Year's flew by as did the Australia Day Long Weekend and now we find ourselves at one of the biggest weekends of the year - four days off for everybody.

Fortunately, most of the country is looking good waves for at least a couple of those days. Let's go around the grounds...

South-east Queensland and northern NSW: Tropical Cyclone Iris which formed near the Solomon Islands over the weekend has weakened into a tropical low and is now drifting south while squeezing a strong high in the Tasman Sea. We'll see large swell from the east-northeast building through Thursday, peaking Friday morning before easing slowly over the weekend.

Exposed spots are expected to be in the 6ft range Friday morning, easing from 3-5ft Saturday morning but not dropping below 3ft through the rest of the weekend. Gusty east-southeast winds will limit surfing options to the protected points, likely lighter and more southerly Friday and Saturday mornings, less so Sunday. More variable breezes Monday morning should create cleaner conditions across all locations.

The North Coast will see a touch less size than the Gold Coast and winds look dicey and onshore Friday through Sunday around Byron, better and more variable each morning further south towards the Coffs Coast. Come Monday a light north-west breeze will create cleaner conditions around Byron.

Southern NSW: The swell from the tropical low is expected to filter down from the north-east through Friday in Sydney, building to 3ft to possibly 4ft at north-east swell magnets Friday afternoon as a shallow south-southeast change tries to push through. The morning will be smaller and clean under a north-west breeze.

Southerly winds will persist as the north-east swell eases through Saturday from 3ft+ mixed in with some small weak southerly windswell. Cleaner but smaller leftover surf is due Sunday, with some fun peaky NW windswell Monday with variable winds. Also in the mix Saturday through Monday will be small inconsistent levels of southerly groundswell.

Victoria: A flurry of frontal activity through the Southern Ocean will generate a good W/SW groundswell for Friday, reaching 4-5ft on the sets at magnets on the Surf Coast with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula beaches.

We'll see the swell drop back a touch into Saturday, slowed by a reinforcing SW groundswell with smaller surf Sunday and Monday.

North-west to south-west winds will favour the Surf Coast through this period, and protected spots around Phillip Island.

Southern Tasmania: The same swells will impact Tasmania's South Arm, building through Friday and reaching 2-3ft later in the day though with onshore winds. Saturday is the pick with clean easing surf from 2-3ft, smaller to 1-2ft Sunday.

We may see some new swell building Monday but with gusty onshore winds.

Eastern Tasmania: Conditions will be clean most of the Long Weekend under a persistent north-west airstream, but there'll be hardly any swell on offer. Small levels of north-east swell from the Coral Sea hardly look to reach 1-2ft unfortunately.

South Australia: We'll see the swell due across Victoria impacting the South Australian coast a little earlier, though winds on Friday when we see a peak in size to 3-5ft of Middleton will be generally from the west-southwest. Dawn may provide a window of west-northwest winds around Victor.

The Mid Coast will see plenty of swell Friday to 2 to occasionally 3ft but be bumpy.

Saturday and Sunday are looking much better with variable winds across both coasts as the swell slowly eases. The Mid Coast will be best Saturday with easing 2ft sets, tiny into Sunday and Monday.

Middleton looks the pick Saturday and Sunday mornings, with an onshore change moving through Monday shortly after dawn.

Western Australia: There'll be nothing like the waves seen last weekend from Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus.

We're looking at tiny to flat surf across Perth and Mandurah for the whole weekend, only a bit better around Margaret River. Friday and Monday are the stand outs with the most size and best winds.

Easing surf from Thursday should still be coming in at 4-5ft Friday morning with an offshore SE breeze, with smaller waves Saturday and Sunday under average S/SE breezes.

A slight kick in new swell is due Monday and fresh E/SE winds should favour swell magnets.

So all in all, the pick of the country looks to be the Surf Coast over the weekend, which is great for the Rip Curl Pro which should get under way Friday. Have a happy and safe Easter!

Comments

black-duck's picture
black-duck's picture
black-duck Wednesday, 28 Mar 2018 at 7:20pm

"...fun peaky NW windswell Monday with variable winds."
Never had a north west swell on the NSW south coast, looking forward to that.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Wednesday, 28 Mar 2018 at 8:22pm

Hey Black duck, was down your way a few weekends back, was looking out for you.

Planning an extended stay down there in May. Haven't seen you on the forums for a while and wondering if you were still around. Will try to remember to post something a bit closer to the time, see if we can catch each other out there.

Good comment by the way, was thinking the same. :-)

black-duck's picture
black-duck's picture
black-duck Wednesday, 28 Mar 2018 at 9:28pm

Hey Batfink, were you surfing Bendy on a sunday morning, towards middle, maybe 4 weeks ago now? Waves were good, for a change. Glassy morning east swell. Thought i saw you but wasn't sure. You were hunting lefts.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Friday, 30 Mar 2018 at 8:47am

I was down there 9th to 12th March. Surfed Bendy Saturday morning towards middle, glassy and really nice, lefts and rights. Sunday the same, it had dropped off quite a bit but was still nice 2' and mostly lefts for me although others were getting rights. Nice weekend that one.

I'll be there again week of 12th to 20th May. If you think you see me, give me a shout.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 30 Mar 2018 at 8:50am

Hey...I was there that weekend too! Well I was camping a bit south of there but called in on the Sunday - yeah, I know it had dropped - and spent a few hours mucking around on the beach with kids and surfing too. 

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Saturday, 31 Mar 2018 at 8:37am

Small world Stu. :-) Would have recognised you if I saw you. Of course my long distance vision isn't great so always struggle to recognise faces when out in the water.