Forecast: Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

The Quiksilver Pro is done, Kirra pumped, and autumn has kicked into gear across the southern states.

As we speak, large windy surf is battering the south-east corner of the country with Tasmania and Victoria bearing the brunt.

This is a result of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough passing across the region and we're set to see another strong node move in during the opening days of the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach waiting period.

The Long Wave Trough is an upper atmospheric wave that spins west to east (clockwise) around the South Pole, influencing surface weather. The wave has various intensifications or nodes, and when a node is focussed across a region, frontal activity will follow, projecting up towards it (see image below).

When a strong node sits over Victoria, we can expect Southern Ocean storms to project up under the country and into South Australia. If the node is positioned further east, the frontal activity will be more focussed into Tasmania and Victoria.

Looking at the long-range forecasts for the Rip Curl Pro we can see that a node is expected to strengthen through the Great Australian Bight early next week, moving slowly towards Victoria through the end of the week.

This will initally direct a flurry of slow moving frontal activity up through the Bight and Victoria's western swell window, more favourably into its south-western swell window later week.

In short this signals swell for the first half of the waiting period, building through day two (Thursday), peaking day three (Easter Friday) and then slowly easing into the weekend.

Wednesday, day one of the waiting period is looking small and clean with a mid-period SW swell easing back from the 2ft range. A likely lay day.

Thursday will start small to tiny but through the afternoon and more so later in the day we should start seeing a mix of building W/SW groundswell and windswell from the first Southern Ocean storms falling under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.

Winds will strengthen from the west as the swell builds, so a late start is unlikely, with Easter Friday looking to the be first day of competition with large levels of W/SW swell in the 6ft range under gusty westerly winds.

Easing surf with favourable winds over the Easter weekend should see competition run both Saturday and Sunday, and more than likely Monday as the swell becomes a touch smaller.

Beyond this the outlook is uncertain, but we'll provide updates in the comments section below.

16 Day Torquay Forecast Graph
16 Day Torquay WAMs

Comments

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 2:33pm

Don't get too excited kids. That forecast is a very long way out and it's been blowing easterly nearly all farken year. Just when you think things are changing to a better weather pattern, another stinking high sets up over Tassie and we start playing golf or riding mountain bikes.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 3:56pm

Judging by the latest guidance, you might want to get ready to put the golf clubs away.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 4:18pm

Unlikely Island Bay. There's zilch to get excited about for the next week followed by a maybe for Easter Friday. Given how shitful it's been all year, it's a hell of a big call by crowdnet.com to be pumping up surf ten days out.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 2:23pm

Looks Ok for the peninsula and has been a few really good surfs lately. Loving east/north east, small to moderate swells and no crowds.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 3:36pm

Dunno about the no crowds part, mid-weeks plenty chocas, some of the banks are rooted as well

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 3:42pm

Ha, yes the old hoax coast has its issues but as always need to sniff it out and DON'T TELL ANYONE if you strike gold. I know a certain left hander has been crazy crowded even at the crack of dawn. Those westerners are desperate bastards.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 8:28am

If it's the same left-hander I'm thinking about (there's only so many right..) then fuck being out there at dawn

Jordan05's picture
Jordan05's picture
Jordan05 commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 6:35pm

"CROWD NET" I love it by name. Its like lambs to the slaughter.Swell net, no longer "crowd net" it will be.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 8:22pm

Thanks Jordan05. Crowdnet calling a swell 10 days out is nuts. It's like a busted clock being right twice a day.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT commented Friday, 23 Mar 2018 at 8:01pm

VL - what a negative Nelly you are. Would love to see you at a party, you would be a hit! Why even post shit like that on these forums - dick!

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan commented Tuesday, 27 Mar 2018 at 3:35pm

Nah.

crowdnet.com is appropriate.

Very appropriate.

Golden appropriate even!

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 8:27pm

Dont know where to put this but what happened to the Secret thread that mysteriously disappeared with Andybox?

simba

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 8:57pm

I agree vic local. Average at best. Troublesome pm winds to. I Hope things change.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Tuesday, 20 Mar 2018 at 10:30pm

Although the last frame on the wams looks interesting. Wednesday the 4 th.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 8:44am

Ha Ha greyhound. Is that 4th of May? I better arrange my work schedule so I have time off and can get down to Bells. It's going to be pumping. Hope the lineup is quiet.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 8:57am

The node amplification around the 30th has been showing on the long range charts for a couple of days now. Doesn't necessarily mean it will be epic but at least there should be some swell over Easter.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 9:52am

This early forecast is to point out that the outlook is positive, unlike this week where we've seen large swell but very poor winds.

Models are holding in regards to strong mid-latitude and polar frontal acitivity through mid-late next week.

You can leave your wet blanket at home VL.

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 10:08am

I agree Craig , looks so much better that the last 6 weeks , and westerly winds are back....

x

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 1:09pm

No Sharkman, it's howling from the SE at the moment. I think you mean the forecast for westerly winds are back. And it's a week away.
You blokes are too much. If I got excited about Crowdnet's predictions of swell, I'd be in a permanent state of ADHD.
Cool your jets kids.

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 9:16am

No it's not its easterly. and yeah west winds are back on Sat....been plenty of surf on the west coast , just so you know all the forecasts are the same as SN!
Do you actually listen to the weather at nite , for the following day forecast?

x

mattlock's picture
mattlock's picture
mattlock commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 10:41am

Feels like Autumn patterns are starting here in South Oz

Älskarhavet's picture
Älskarhavet's picture
Älskarhavet commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 11:01am

Righto: what happened to the Swellnet Fantasy Surfer League.
https://www.swellnet.com/forums/form-guide/390079

Was keen to give it a go this time, this being my former local area! (before I moved to Scandinavia!)

Time to advertise it again Swellnet, get some more followers and see if I can kick some ass! :)
(and if there are any takers...)

Yeah, didn't do the first contest but it was a throwaway I guess!

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 1:05pm

A day in the life of Vic Local, by Gary G

1: Load up surf forecasting website
2: Use surf forecasting website to check the outlook for the coast I frequent
3: Click through to article that contains a surf forecast and will get plenty of eyeballs
4: Drop a stone cold ZINGER that replaces part of the website name with the word 'Crowd'
5: Drop aviator shades over eyes
6: Press play on 'Top Gun Soundtrack' at volume 100
7: Make oneself a colourful badge: "Top performer, maintaining the integrity of surfing"
8: High-5 oneself repeatedly in bathroom mirror

Not included - the months of work-shopping required to develop such a high quality zinger.

For your next holiday, why not get all up in Gary?
Gary, Indiana.
Nestled at the tip of Lake Michigan, the best spot for scoring a facey anywhere on the great lakes, Gary's such a delight that once you've come once, you're certain to want to come again.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 1:11pm

Hey Gary G, stop peeking through my windows you sick pervert.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 2:53pm

Gary is just checking whether the carpet matches the drapes.

For your next holiday, why not get all up in Gary?
Gary, Indiana.
Nestled at the tip of Lake Michigan, the best spot for scoring a facey anywhere on the great lakes, Gary's such a delight that once you've come once, you're certain to want to come again.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 3:13pm

Ha ha! Gold.

Can we get a 'day in the life of Gary G'?

I'm guessing it would involve custard, baby-oil, fresh leeks from the garden, a glass coffee table and a small but enthusiastic donkey?

I could be wrong however.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 4:30pm

I saw Gary G at Torquay Woolies the other day. His shopping basket contained a tub of Vaseline, a bottle of scotch and a cucumber. When the checkout chick said "Big night planned?" Gary G told her to "mind your own business and just scan my items". He is one sick unit who's admitted to looking through my windows.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 11:13am

Whilst Gary can't understand how you can possibly mis-identify the unmistakeable frame of Gary G, Gary thinks you've got the wrong person.

Gary is more of a CostCo man as he relates to the size of the packages on display

For your next holiday, why not get all up in Gary?
Gary, Indiana.
Nestled at the tip of Lake Michigan, the best spot for scoring a facey anywhere on the great lakes, Gary's such a delight that once you've come once, you're certain to want to come again.

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 12:49pm

so ha you were the checkout chick!

x

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 5:08pm

That is good

maxe's picture
maxe's picture
maxe commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 2:18pm

Please Huey give these poor Vico people some good waves because (given the comments) they are obviously going quite mad down there!

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 2:24pm

Only the westerners

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 9:13pm

'squinters' memlasurf

Les bundy's picture
Les bundy's picture
Les bundy commented Wednesday, 21 Mar 2018 at 11:02pm

Vic local, your game starts this weekend, get your tight shorts on, re adjust your tackle and worry about why they can't pick up the ball and kick it between two of the four posts they're aiming at.Definately a wet blanket involved.
Cheers Craig

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 9:53am

Models are still a little divergent but we've got some good consolidation between a couple of them regarding a new W/SW swell for Thursday with favourable winds.

This will be followed by a reinforcing SW groundswell building Friday, easing slowly over the weekend with workable winds early each morning.

Wednesday morning will be clean but still looks too small to run.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 10:36pm

Doesn't look to be overly big for Easter. 4ft tops now Craig?

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 11:06am

OK Zen, as you request.

Gary leads both a busy and varied schedule but he will attempt to distil the essence of a day in the life of Gary G
(not to be confused with the soon to be released "l'essence de Gary", available at all good 7-11s)

Gary's morning starts with a cup of raw eggs and his daily session watching the good lord - 5 days a week this will be 'Pumping Iron' and on the 6th day Gary rotates between Kindergarten Cop, Junior & Twins. On the 7th day, Gary rests.

Gary applies his daily lather of coconut oil & advanced hair scalp treatment while the credits roll, then pulls on his active wear and power walks a lap of all the neighbourhood cafes, dropping a few unsolicited winks along the way and making sure to have a good stretch at every cafe.

If the surf's up, it's now Facey-time.

Gary likes to give the people what they want - maximum exposure of Gary - so he typically gets to the carpark in the middle of the day, parks the SUP prominently against the fence, and gives the moneymaker a good stretch whilst making sure his wetsuit is pulled down far enough to be suggestive but not enough for a run in with the boys in blue (no matter how much Gary admires a man in uniform).

After dominating the waves on offer, Gary returns home for a shower and thorough exfoliation while surveying the neighbourhood - Gary has added to the neighbourhood amenity by installing his shower glass as the front corner of his house, offering uninterrupted street views for Gary, while a 2 way mirror means that the locals can only have uninterrupted views of Gary for ~65% of the time.

With the sun setting, Gary poaches a chicken breast and enjoys a hearty dinner while regaling the internet with tales of his day.

The end.

For your next holiday, why not get all up in Gary?
Gary, Indiana.
Nestled at the tip of Lake Michigan, the best spot for scoring a facey anywhere on the great lakes, Gary's such a delight that once you've come once, you're certain to want to come again.

Toppa's picture
Toppa's picture
Toppa commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 11:10am

Does Gary like his chicken spicy?

Toppa

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 1:11pm

Gary's favourite Hot Tamale is Gary

For your next holiday, why not get all up in Gary?
Gary, Indiana.
Nestled at the tip of Lake Michigan, the best spot for scoring a facey anywhere on the great lakes, Gary's such a delight that once you've come once, you're certain to want to come again.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 2:34pm

Fark. My life is so empty compared to Gary G's. Maybe I could get an internship with the master so I can learn the ways of the G Force.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 5:41pm

Gary is glad you’ve come to the party, Vic Local.

You certainly wouldn’t feel empty if you had a bit more of Gary in you.

For your next holiday, why not get all up in Gary?
Gary, Indiana.
Nestled at the tip of Lake Michigan, the best spot for scoring a facey anywhere on the great lakes, Gary's such a delight that once you've come once, you're certain to want to come again.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 5:43pm

Figuratively or literally?

sluggoes's picture
sluggoes's picture
sluggoes commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 6:16pm

Good command of the Queen's English, infatuation with crowds, cucumbers and SUPs ...
I think Vic Local is Gary G.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 10:06pm

Well that took an unexpected be it slightly amusing turn ...... going back to VL's original comment, the easterlies are still in full force here in Vicco so I'm not getting excited.

Crowdnet, I like it.

Larry Lee's picture
Larry Lee's picture
Larry Lee commented Thursday, 22 Mar 2018 at 10:18pm

I heard that the Wind has been blowing easterly , because Gary G commands it to during the months of Oct - March . Purely because his dojo mirrors face east and the french doors on the opposite side allow a stiff breeze to cool the sweat from his rippling torso .
But thats just what i'm hearing from the kids on the street .....

Alternatively after the first dewy frost , Gary G commands the westerly's to arise . As otherwise the cool morning chill takes the edge off " little Gary's " menacing presentation in the spandex .
Ooops , yeah back on Topic .
Ciallo FTW , because he's paying Brut' to coach him .

Gary, now I know I was wrong
I messed up and now you're gone
Gary, I'm sorry I neglected you
Oh, I never expected you to run away
And leave me feeling this empty
Please come home 'cause I miss you, Gary
Gary, come home
Gary, come home

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:36am

It looks like the forecast is lining up as originally forecast.

Friday looks to be the first day of competition with a good new W/SW groundswell to 4-5ft with morning offshores, tending W/SW into the afternoon.

Saturday will also be a good surf day with a reinforcing swell coming in just a touch under Friday's size. Conditions will be clean again all morning ahead of sea breezes.

Easing surf with clean conditions Sunday should see more heats run, while there's fun swells due into early next week.

Not bad for a 10-day outlook eh Vic Local.

More here: Pumping Tuesday and great from late week

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:50am

Haha good on ya craig, stoked that there's gonna be a bit of swell on Friday i'm hoping to get down there. Wonder how much they'll use winki over the comp especially come Sunday and next week...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 8:34pm

Stop it Craig. You're embarrassing yourself.
You were banging on about favourable winds. Sure there will be morning offshores but it's going to be S/SW/SE for most of Easter.
It's going to be average at best. High tides coincide with the morning offshores and that generally means morning sickness and inconsistent fat waves
This is crowdnet bullshit Craig. Stop getting people's hopes up with poorly informed forecasting from Sydney. There's a reason why you guys haven't been the comp forecaster for about a decade.

nick_french's picture
nick_french's picture
nick_french commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:01pm

are you taking the fucking piss vic local look at the forecast you dickhead. Friday to Monday look bloody fun for the comp and wheres this SE your talking looks WSW/SW at worst in the arvo. Stop being a negative dick and actually just wait till the day before you claim morning sickness and inconsistent waves because it won't be that on Friday, its a fucking 20 km northwesterly.
cheers

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:11pm

Here's a copy and paste from the BOM forecast for Friday.
Partly cloudy. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h tending southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.
North Westerly my arse. It's pretty obvious you have no clue what a westerly wind and a high tide does at Bells. And we may even see a SE wind swell chucked into the mix due to 20km SE winds predicted late Thursday. But hey if you want to believe everything you read on crowdnet and blow your money on petrol coming down to the coast from Melbourne, be my guest.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:17pm

It's also pretty obvious that if you use BOM forecasts for local winds you'd be getting skunked all the time. They don't go to the granular like these notes do.

I'm very very confident it will be W/NW on Friday morning. Likely even periods of NW.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:38pm

Craig, if you lived down here you'd know early season swells are very fragile and everything needs to come together to get good surf. Poor tides, average winds and a lot of west in the swell means the waves won't be nearly as good as you're predicting. Having said that the pros will make it look a hell of a lot better than it is with a 15 second highlights package on the evening news. Most of the day, it will be average at best.

nick_french's picture
nick_french's picture
nick_french commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 10:01pm

mate every fucking website is calling WNW/NW WINDS FRIDAY MORNING what the you on about could not give a fuck about BOM have a look at other websites and btw Saturday, Sunday, Monday all look WNW/NW

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 10:05pm

Im going by another site (won't mention names as kind of a competitor to swellnet but also more a weather site) that I've found very reliable on winds.

The SE wind looks pretty much a seabreeze 14km that only blows for the arvo before it swings back NW-WNW all night, i would have imagined the effect of it would be gone by then?

Ada gula, ada semut!

murphy's picture
murphy's picture
murphy commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 6:11pm

I hope they don't use Winki...then I can sneak down there and catch a few uncrowded ones.

Murphy Del Mar

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 9:41pm

Nice one Murphy, It will be so uncrowded you won't need to sneak one off the pack straight around the button, and you can just sit at lowers and wait your turn. Should be a five minute wait max, because nobody at Easter ever paddles inside you and thinks they own the lineup. Those surf industry hangers on are just so polite in the water. Enjoy buddy.

murphy's picture
murphy's picture
murphy commented Monday, 26 Mar 2018 at 10:04pm

As long as there's plenty of camera's around I'll be happy.

Murphy Del Mar

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