Quiksilver Pro France - Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

We've had a couple of lacklustre events post J-Bay with average Teahupoo and small, slow Trestles. The tedium of these events was vastly overshadowed when Kelly Slater gathered a group of the world's best surfers at his wave pool for the Future Classic.

Yet all that is over and now we find ourselves in France.

During the last few weeks there's been a few significant swells impacting Europe with one large clean and sunny day standing out at Nazare. The waiting period for the Quiksilver Pro France kicks off this Saturday, running through until the the 18th (Wednesday week).

A fun but inconsistent W/NW groundswell will kick off the waiting period, generated by a small low sitting east of Newfoundland. 3-4ft sets are due Saturday morning, easing a touch through the day and further Sunday from 3ft on the sets. Winds are looking great with morning offshores ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

We'll move into a quiet period early next week ahead of some new NW energy from Wednesday afternoon, becoming large and sustained from Friday.

These swells will originate from a broad, stationary, and multi-centred low forming between Greenland and Iceland, projecting multiple fetches of strong to gale-force westerly winds through France's swell window.

At this stage we're looking at surf building to 3ft+ Wednesday afternoon, further Thursday towards 4ft with some stronger energy to 5-6ft on Friday/Saturday.

This may then be followed by a much stronger low forming off Newfoundland, directing a significant fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds right towards the Bay of Biscay. If this unfolds as expected it'll generate a large powerful W/NW groundswell for the end of the waiting period, coming in at a much larger 8ft+ but we'll provide running updates on these developments in the comments below.

As the storms will develop quite a distance from France, conditions each morning are looking excellent with light local offshore winds before sea breezes kick in.

Therefore the outlook for the Quiksilver Pro is quite good with plenty of surf days to pick and choose. However, as is always the case in France, the quality is ultimately determined by the quality of the banks.

16 day Hossegor Forecast Graph
16 day Hossegor Forecast WAMs

Comments

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 5:40pm

Heaving French beachies...makes for good viewing...they're due some good waves the WSL...

Whitebait's picture
Whitebait's picture
Whitebait commented Friday, 6 Oct 2017 at 6:49am

Question on the surf measurement. Are you talking 8ft wave faces or 8ft off the back of the wave?

Whitebait

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 6 Oct 2017 at 7:07am

Whilst our surf height measurements are not empirical face feet, we also don't measure the back of the wave (how would that be done?).

We utilise the most common size measurement across the Australian surf community, which is 'surfers feet', so the size reference is that 3ft equals about head high, 6ft is double overhead and 8ft+ is almost triple overhead.

_benno's picture
_benno's picture
_benno commented Saturday, 7 Oct 2017 at 7:54am

There's also the famous 'Gary', a measurement that can't simply be put into a formula. Hard to describe yet so descriptive.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Sunday, 8 Oct 2017 at 9:34pm

It would be so much easier if the WSL simply adopted the Gary.

Unfortunately they already have a cheap impersonator on their books: Gary's nemesis - Strider Wasilewski. Until the experience the full Gary they just don't know what they're missing out on.

I'm high on the hill, looking over the bridge,
To the Gary-G.
And way up on high, the wave I can see,
is a sweet facey

Whitebait's picture
Whitebait's picture
Whitebait commented Friday, 6 Oct 2017 at 7:15am

Great. That's how it should be measured. Could you please educate the WSL???

Whitebait

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 7 Oct 2017 at 7:57am

I don't mind how people meausre wave heights, as long as it's consistent.

And that's the problem with the WSL - they fluctuate between the two, depending on where they are and how they want it to be perceived - solid reefbreak surf is usually measured in surfers feet (Bells, Margs, Chopes) whilst small weak surf will usually revert back to face feet to sound more impressive than it really is. 

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Oct 2017 at 9:20am

Update:

The forecast NW groundswell from later Wednesday is still on track, with the swell more likely to be seen Thursday and Friday.

A couple of great W'ly fetches will produce a moderate sized NW groundswell, building to 4-5ft+ Thursday afternoon, and easing slowly from 4-6ft Friday morning. Conditions look great with morning offshore winds ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

The stronger and more significant low is still on track as well, with a large W/NW groundswell due to arrive later Saturday and peak Sunday morning to 6-8ft. Winds look cross-offshore early before a change moves through, with easing surf and all day offshores Monday.

On the last day of the waiting period, if they need, another large W/NW groundswell is expected with favourable winds.

surfstarved's picture
surfstarved's picture
surfstarved commented Wednesday, 11 Oct 2017 at 7:06pm

Dead flat at sunrise this morning, but we're looking forward to some action this afternoon. Not the WSL kind of action, mind you, just waves actually breaking an' that. Big onshores predicted for the afternoon, which should switch offshore overnight and stay that way for most of tomorrow. I'm predicting that they'll run the comp tomorrow, probably from about mid morning when the tide starts dropping out. Whether it's the women's finals or the first round of the men's is in the hands of the officials.

Don't let the bastards grind you down

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 11 Oct 2017 at 8:15pm

Thanks for the update Cass! Yeah swell not due till late today.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 8:00am

Much to do on laydays, Cass?

surfstarved's picture
surfstarved's picture
surfstarved commented Friday, 13 Oct 2017 at 1:46am

Local markets, craft beer and kids' surfing lessons Stu. More in today's report, watch this space.

Don't let the bastards grind you down

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 5:53pm

4-5 ft , Slate grey and glassy.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 6:00pm

Strange bank.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 6:28pm

great conditions! kinda shit!?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 6:11pm

Kennedy needs a break.

He was def into a grey area as he left the water regarding the old " more than 2 shakes is a wank " rule.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 6:48pm

Wilko shredding.

Maybe getting bigger ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 12 Oct 2017 at 7:40pm
What a start to the JJ heat. Italo 9.5!