Billabong Pro Tahiti - Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

It's hard to come down from the ruler-edge perfection of J-Bay back to a marginal Teahupoo forecast.

The thing is, Teahupoo hasn't really fired all winter. The usual progression of strong polar storms up past New Zealand hasn't truly kicked into gear this season, with large blocking highs and meandering mid-latitude lows keeping a lid on things.

And over the coming forecast period we've got more of the same funky weather patterns moving in between New Zealand and Tahiti.

The prime storm track for Teahupoo is when polar fronts form south of Tasmania, then push east before moving up close to New Zealand's eastern shores. This is facilitated when the position of the Long Wave Trough is immediately east of New Zealand, yet over the coming forecast window this wont be the case.

Instead a couple of nodes will move fast to the east through the South Pacific Ocean.

With this we won't be able to get a prolonged period of strong polar fronts in Teahupoo's swell window.

Instead we're looking at glancing S/SW swells in the small to medium range. There is potential for some stronger polar activity to develop through the period but for now it's not looking like classic Teahupoo. More on this in the comments below and coming updates.

16 day Teahupoo Forecast Graph
16 day Teahupoo Forecast WAMs

(Homepage image courtesy WSL)

Comments

deckstrus's picture
deckstrus's picture
deckstrus commented Thursday, 3 Aug 2017 at 3:44pm

bugger, with the title race so close it would be good to put some serious swell in the water to sort out the men from the boys.

swab's picture
swab's picture
swab commented Thursday, 3 Aug 2017 at 3:46pm

like your forecasting for this and the local..i wanna sub. by snailmail is that possible? your site is way above the other in my eyes.i won't use pp cos of what the did to wikileaks years ago. fuck p.p.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 3 Aug 2017 at 3:51pm

Thanks swab.

Snail mail is possible, though what kind of payment method are you considering? Cash? Bank cheque? Easiest option is via credit card on the sign up page (PayPal not an option yet but will be soon). 

https://www.swellnet.com/pro/subscribe

If however you've got some other kind of payment method in mind, email us via [email protected] and we'll work out something.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 9:23am

Are preferred winds from a north easterly direction?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 9:27am

East-northeast is pretty much perfect but can handle anything from N/NE to E/SE if not too strong.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 10:18am

okie doke. On the graph its say 6-8ft and kinda strong E wind? Still a bit away but that would be a good day of action if came to be?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 10:23am

Yep, this is the first update that's shown that. Would take with a grain of salt at the moment.

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 9:43am

The WSL need to get Bold. The best event ever was "Somewhere In Mexico" if Teahupoo's not ON it's not ON. Take it to where it is ON. You need a J-Bay experience. If the conditions can't be found call it off. Move ON.
The Vans US Open is a joke where a Lucky Kook can get the job done. Cannot be taken seriously.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 9:48am

"The best event ever was "Somewhere In Mexico"

Yeah, great surf but there's a few crusty travellers that'd vehemently (violently!) disagree with you. The era of exposing underground spots and blowing them out of the water with exposure has thankfully passed.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 1:47pm

"The era of exposing underground spots and blowing them out of the water with exposure has thankfully passed."

LOL Ya reckon mate???

That's gotta be in the frame for 'quote of the year' on your forums.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 1:51pm

Struggling to think of a CT that's exposed a spot since then.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 2:12pm

OOOOOKaaay.........

got me on a technicality. WCT has pulled up on it........for now.

Surfing in general....well that's another story.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Friday, 4 Aug 2017 at 3:37pm

I know a place Uluwatu nobody knows about that place.
No seriously we all want the biggest and best conditions for events
but your dealing with mother nature so anything goes and you know
a week earlier or later could be all time.
Its why I think surfing in the olympics is just hogwash and a complete
joke and will fail badly. Surfing is not a even playing field.

IF im not surfing im racing

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 commented Monday, 7 Aug 2017 at 7:17pm

Hey Craig,
what's the forcast looking like now?, on the wams first 4 days of waiting period look alright, hopefully some 6-8ft bombs
Cheers
Btw anyone able to send a flick of what the 14day forcast is saying cheers

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 8 Aug 2017 at 5:58am

Subscribe you tight arse and you won't have to go asking people

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 7 Aug 2017 at 8:36pm

Oh fuck me the forecast looks woeful. Relocate the comp to Indo!!

They'll have to run it Fri-Mon or Sat-Tues.

How's chopes go as the swell swings more east of south?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 7 Aug 2017 at 8:50pm

Will have more of an update tomorrow, but inline with the article, besides a S'ly swell at the start of the period, we're looking at the dominant swell being from the E/SE, not good at all.