Billabong Pro Tahiti - Early Forecast
It's hard to come down from the ruler-edge perfection of J-Bay back to a marginal Teahupoo forecast.
The thing is, Teahupoo hasn't really fired all winter. The usual progression of strong polar storms up past New Zealand hasn't truly kicked into gear this season, with large blocking highs and meandering mid-latitude lows keeping a lid on things.
And over the coming forecast period we've got more of the same funky weather patterns moving in between New Zealand and Tahiti.
The prime storm track for Teahupoo is when polar fronts form south of Tasmania, then push east before moving up close to New Zealand's eastern shores. This is facilitated when the position of the Long Wave Trough is immediately east of New Zealand, yet over the coming forecast window this wont be the case.
Instead a couple of nodes will move fast to the east through the South Pacific Ocean.
With this we won't be able to get a prolonged period of strong polar fronts in Teahupoo's swell window.
Instead we're looking at glancing S/SW swells in the small to medium range. There is potential for some stronger polar activity to develop through the period but for now it's not looking like classic Teahupoo. More on this in the comments below and coming updates.
(Homepage image courtesy WSL)