Corona Open J-Bay - forecast update

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

After scoring great waves through Rounds 1 and 2 of the Corona Open J'Bay, the contestants (and viewers) have only been given a taste of what's to come.

Yep, it's been good, but it's going to get better. We're looking at large and consistent swells right through until the end of the week.

These will be created by a series of strong storms pushing toward South Africa under the influence of a stalling node of the Long Wave Trough.

A strong front moving through yesterday - which produced yesterday afternoon's pumping waves - should keep great 4-5ft surf hitting the point this morning, but a much stronger system passing under Jeffreys Bay today will generate a larger long-period SW swell that'll build into the afternoon.

We'll see sets pushing the 6ft+ range with strong offshore winds, easing back to a clean 6ft the next morning (Wednesday local time).

However, it'll only be a temporary easing trend before the next long-period groundswell builds through Thursday.

We'll see a pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds set up an active sea state for post-frontal storm-force SW winds to move over, generating a large powerful SW groundswell.

From this we should see Jeffreys building to a large, clean 6-8ft through the day, with the swell easing from 6ft but out of a more S/SW direction during Friday morning (local time).

Winds look great throughout the next 4 days, so there'll be plenty of opportunity to pick the eyes out of each swell, maximising the chance for epic waves into the final day of surfing.

Hold onto your seats, it's gonna be great viewing!

Comments

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 11:20am

They'll be talking about this contest in the years to come.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 11:26am

Btw, Stu maybe you guys could run a dedicated thread for the contests? I kind of enjoy flipping back to SN during the lulls and seeing if anyone has commented on the situation at hand. Just a thought.

Ben, I'm going to subscribe this week, I promise.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 12:50pm

Since that lid dropped in on Kolohe I was wondering what the ACTUAL repercussions are/could be if someone decided to stay out mid comp. Locally, as long as you're out of the way and not looking to take competitors waves no-one really cares and I've heard the local comp reservations only legally extend to the water line? Anyone know exactly what the law/s are if someone decided to push the matter at both local and CT level for both staying out (out of the way) and staying out (hassling for waves)? You'd have to be a pretty upset local at J-Bay this week haha.

Haski's picture
Haski's picture
Haski Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 12:51pm

sick o

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 1:22pm

On the goldy you'd be arrested I'd say.

DeXtrus's picture
DeXtrus's picture
DeXtrus Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 1:37pm

Kelly will be doubly pissed...

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 2:22pm

What days you reckon theyll run it having thos forecast?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 2:32pm

Every day until they finish I feel.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 2:37pm

Just wondering how theyll split it up too maximise the best waves for the finals?

Rnd 3 today? 12 heats @ 35mins = 7 hours. So a full round will probaly run today then

Wed Rnd 4 & 5?

Finals Thursday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 18 Jul 2017 at 2:39pm

Yeah not sure, that's up to them :)