Corona Open J-Bay - early forecast

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

South Africa’s been having a rough trot of late. The Western Cape region which includes Cape Town is in the grips of severe drought, the worst in more than a century with dams holding less than 10% of its useable water.

Severe restrictions have been put in place regarding household water use, while last month wildfires ripped through the coastal town of Knysna half way between Cape Town and Jeffreys Bay.

But as for surf potential, things are looking up with a couple of large swells forecast through the waiting period of the Corona Open J-Bay

Up till now, fun swells have been impacting the South African coast, providing great waves for those arriving early, with Mick Fanning getting into tune a couple of days ago.

The waiting period kicks off next Wednesday, and a large SW groundswell is due to provide great surf for the pros to warm up in on Monday and Tuesday.

The swell will be replaced by a mid-period S/SW swell through the first day of competition. The front generating this swell will project nicely through J-Bay's swell window, with sets expected to build to 3ft into Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday morning to 3-4ft.

Later in the week a stronger polar low is forecast to develop, generating severe-gale to storm-force winds through J-Bay's southern swell window (pictured right), which is ideal. This would produce a large S/SW groundswell, arriving Friday afternoon and building to 5-6ft.

Following this there is plenty more activity showing in the forecast window, but we'll provide running updates and further articles over the coming week or two.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 5:03pm

Winds for that friday? The best thing about JBay is it kicks off around 3 I think. Perfect for a couple of beers to celebrate the weekend.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 5:33pm

Good at this stage.

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 6:05pm

Cool! I'm still calling for a solid swell and wilko win! Unless "YOGI" gets a wildcard then we could see major upsets (kidding clowns) although I believe he could still surprise.

Wilko,Smith, Wilson. For my Trifecta.

;+) har ha ha ha.

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 6:47pm

Finally sik waves for a contest..love jbay..mick and kelly to fire if its on..their due

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 7:05pm

Arhh winkipop you do love that Brasso dont you? Why he is just another
good surfer the world is overflowing with them.

IF im not surfing im racing

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 7:06pm

Arhh winkipop you do love that Brasso dont you? Why he is just another
good surfer the world is overflowing with them.

IF im not surfing im racing

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 10:24pm

Your drinking tonight right! You didn't read into my comment very well.
But big ears evo! I tell you what I will actually agree with you on the over flowing part!
And I also think bar about 20 guys the world is kind of catching up to the elite level of surfing.
I'm guessing shaping machines are the major factor in this.
Being able to ride that same magicboard to the millimeter ever time after you break it had really changed the game!
You can fine tune your surfing game these days a hell of a lot easier than 10 years ago.

;+) har ha ha ha.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 7:32pm

Winds for that friday? The best thing about JBay is it kicks off around 3 I think. Perfect for a couple of beers to celebrate the weekend.

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 10:32pm

Hmm I think it was about 11-11:30pm when mick was attacked by the shark in the final!
So yep perfect drinking times.

;+) har ha ha ha.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 10:55pm

That's what I love about J'Bay, so hard to call esp. if solid.

I'd have to agree with your trifecta Winki, but alternatively, I'd chuck in Mick, Adriano and John John.

Jeez, you have to think Owen and Connor O'Leary too.

Fuck it, I got no idea.

Ignorance is Zen

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 11:09pm

Nah sorry winki no drinking I just hope the surf pumps.

IF im not surfing im racing

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 11:12pm

Me too. Love J'Bay, best event on tour. You really get to see a surfers full bag of tricks out there (and their shortcomings too).

Ignorance is Zen

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Friday, 7 Jul 2017 at 11:51pm

Yes but backhand 12ock reos seem to be in Vogue with the judges this year!
Which would have ment wiggels could have been world champ this year!
JJF yes I think he could! And I'm going to get ragged for saying this.. I think he should ditch the forehand floaty air reverse this year in smaller jbay ( like the ones in the final with mick) and replace them with huge hits and rail plus finners!
Mick's power surfing at jbay was the go last year.
And I think a massive Dane style blow tail will suit the down the line wave better than a long floaty air reverse!
Then jjf for a win.

;+) har ha ha ha.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Saturday, 8 Jul 2017 at 10:38am

Yep you are right on the knocker with JJF. The air looked twee right out on the wall compared what Mick was doing right in the pocket at JB last year. And his hacks at Margarets were magnificent.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Saturday, 8 Jul 2017 at 8:50am

This annoys me to agree with winki but JJF to win.
The spoiler Mick !!!
Is that you winki on wave of the day?

IF im not surfing im racing

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Saturday, 8 Jul 2017 at 1:28pm

No I'm sick of winki! Been surfing bells a lot I feel you can do a lot of different maneuver out there compared to winki!

The jbay long floaty air jjf does compared to the bells high fat ones he does is what im getting at!
Bells stalls where winki runs!

Bells is more like a big Snowboard half pipe...

;+) har ha ha ha.

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 commented Saturday, 8 Jul 2017 at 12:11pm

Craig,
Looking at the WAMS this morning looks like a very nice And big swell hitting jbay july 15,16,17th with good winds as well. What size are you expecting currently for those days ? Could be a epic comp this year
Cheers

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 5:19am

Looking forward to this (licks his chops).

Damn, I hope the judges lay off overscoring repetitive backhand stabs, so that the goofies really have to show what they can do. Remember how good Occy was at JBay compared to the boring backhand surfing theses days?

JJF, Joel, Mick are the ones I'm really looking forward to watching. Jules, too, if he decides to loosen up and give it his best.

I know this is sacrilegious, but Jordy at JBay somehow doesn't excite me that much; he's got the power and the turns, but I find that he overdoes his hacks and has to double pump his way out from behind the whitewater, totally losing speed and flow in the process. Just not to my taste.

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 4:28pm

Not interfering with you comment here!
But Curren invented the double pump!

;+) har ha ha ha.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 9:29am

He did, but he was coming into his bottom turn at full cry, not half stuck behind a section. I think :-)

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 3:30pm

I will go watch the search and the jbay "Heritage" heat and a few jordy ones and get back to you!

;+) har ha ha ha.

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 3:52pm

You know what island bay! I think its because we ride shorter wider boards these days! and a full committed turn it the pocket puts you there sometimes where a little pump is needed to get to the part here you can drive a bottom turn! Where a longer boards like the 90s and what curren was ridding (more gunny pin) would project you there without needing one or only one pump (skip)before the bottom turn.
I suppose these day a blow up in the pocket with double pump is worth more points than a long drawn out bottom turn that takes your bigger board further away from the lip and pocket?

;+) har ha ha ha.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 3:56pm

Good I'm back on track and disagreeing with winki again because
I think Potts was right on top of the double pump back in the day.

IF im not surfing im racing

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 4:30pm

Um i think Curren was around before potts!

Curren is 53 potts is 51 there for curren did it first!

;+) har ha ha ha.

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Sunday, 9 Jul 2017 at 4:45pm

But a twin fin could be the accidental cause of a double pump I guess!

;+) har ha ha ha.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 11 Jul 2017 at 10:33am

Forecast update:

Tomorrow's building mid-period S/SW swell will be spoilt by onshore winds, but a change Thursday should create clean conditions with easing 3ft surf.

The swell due late week has shifted around a little, but a broad polar frontal progression should generate a couple of S/SW groundswell pulses for Friday and Saturday.

An initial increase Friday should see sets reaching 4-5ft, easing from a similar size Saturday morning.

Winds will be OK Friday morning and variable before going onshore, with offshore tending variable winds Saturday.

From Sunday into early next week a series of strong mid-latitude storms are expected to generate larger swells for Jeffreys, the timing of which will have to be kept a close eye one. Winds may become an issue as well, but I'll continue to provide updates.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 12 Jul 2017 at 6:54pm

Sounds like high chance for running friday but more so sat?

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 12 Jul 2017 at 9:51pm

Go Wilko! Ha ha.

No, seriously.

Ignorance is Zen

Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017's picture
Winkipop2017 commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 8:43am

Hmm after watching that wave of Mick's 200 times! Jbay ( the none barrelling waves) reminds me of bells more than winki..
That wave looks like he raced from rincon to the bowl where it hit that dead part.. Then jacked across the shorey..

;+) har ha ha ha.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 1:06pm

Well I've had a fun surf in a dying swell this morning and it's now cold and raining and a perfect afternoon to tuck up inside and watch J bay get torn to shreds on my new TV.

Fuckers better run or else ! ...... or else I'll be disappointed and will probably whine about it for a half hour till I got over it like i did yesterday.

Kick his ass , Seabass !

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 1:58pm

Are you settling on the east coast blowin?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 3:33pm

Visiting for a while. Hanging at the inlaws place . Think we are going to buy it off them and let them hang whilst we travel . Might be a nice place to live when I'm older . In the meantime they can look after the TV . First one I've ever bought !

Out of here in a few weeks . It's been fun but I'm craving reef breaks and sunshine.

C'mon Seabass.

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 3:56pm

Nice!
Out before the dreaded spring.

Owen and Mick to go deep I reckon.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 4:26pm

You'd have to think that Fanning could beat anyone out there . Especially with a decent offshore restricting air moves.

But does he give a fuck about a contest ? I don't know the bloke but I know what it's like to lose interest in a job and just go through the motions till you cross the finish line . Is that his situation ?

Like Bells , I reckon if he makes the quarters he'll be invested enough to have a proper go.

Owen's a chance for sure.

I just want to see Seabass get up because he seems to enjoythe ride .

PS Been getting into Snake Tales on YouTube lately. It's got the candid approach of the old Sarges movies without the Mano a' Mano overtures.

Follows Leo , zeke , Ramzi Bukhami , grif Colapinto as they hit the WQS around the world .

It's cool witnessing the professional approach the boys are living and the everpresent competition that sees them either raise to new heights or fade away to their home beach with a few cool stories for their mates.

Plus they fucking rip ! Make junk waves look amazing.

Snake Tales - Check it out .

PS - Snake should be back in the commentary booth . Two times J Bay champ , ( proper surf ) Pipe Master ! Articulate , witty . Get the fucker back in there !

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 4:09pm

Seeing those warm up clips, he looks like the most invested. Chance to break record wins out there and he's a competitive bastard.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 5:39pm

Kerr - rated 34 and needing something.

A double barrel is something.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 5:57pm

Bede's two biggest waves may not have scored big, but heck were they beautiful. So fast and clean.
Joel is Mr Natural.
Adriano must be most improved surfer ever. He has all but gotten rid of that windmilling right arm and is going clean and hard off the bottom.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 5:59pm

Whoa . Forgot about ADS.

As always.

Even though he's a world champ , he's giving Bede a fair run as most

underrated surfer of the last 15 years.

Look at those lines of swell !!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 6:02pm

WTF ?

Bede is talking strategy with Andy King .....interesting byline and they cut to Ronnie and Pete talking shit in the booth ?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 6:28pm

Ethan Ewing has perfect technique. If only he could find some confidence.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 6:30pm

Ethan Ewing's style similarities with AI don't extend beyond the bent back arm . My mistake .

Bloke rips . Inexperienced though. Hope he makes a few heats .

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 6:58pm

Smooth as silk isn't he

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:16pm

He needs a masterclass in aggression.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:43pm

Channel some AI

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:17pm

Conner Coffin just needs a season of only 6ft J-Bay and he'd be world champ. That was some wave!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:22pm

I've never been - and it was a sneaky backup venue for backend of Blowin 2017 - but J Bay looks so built out !

Not sure what I was thinking , but the the joint is so fucking developed . But where isn't ?

That's right ! I'll see you there .

Or maybe not ....

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:35pm

I think you can still get some reasonably uncrowded sessions blowin.
Pretty good tourism brochure today that's for sure.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:37pm

Why is it that Jordy so fails to impress ?

Not talking about the rd 1 heat loss.

I'll watch his clips . Watch him utterly dismember Bells ( and fail to get the score ) , watch his signature movie and think.....he's got what it takes.

And then....and then ?

Maybe he has been so uncontestedly dominate in South Africa as a grommet that he feels entitled . His pure talent may shine through but day in , day out he doesn't have the fucking STEEL needed to slay everyone and seize the day.

But what the fuck would I know ?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:39pm

Staples tore that first wave. Nice pace . Local's pace.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:50pm

And then there's John.

You'd have to think that Kelly would see that and realise that K12 is well and truly over ?

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 7:50pm

Jordy will shine this event. I love watching him. Nothing wrong about losing to Connor in that heat.
JJF does things that others can't so if it pumps all contest with consistency I think he'll win.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 8:23pm

John John is next level on everyone, carves, tubes, airs, small solid or big waves, the complete surfer.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 9:18pm

Think Julian got the score?

I did.

Ignorance is Zen

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 9:20pm

Nup thought the judges got it right.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 11:59pm

Looking back Doggy, agreed.

Ignorance is Zen

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 10:51pm

I probably should have said it earlier but... I believe that Medina is he best surfer in the world.

JJF may be more comfortable in waves of consequence due to his upbringing , but Medina is more naturally gifted, more adaptable and more driven WHEN he is engaged.

That is the issue. Pride of Brazil . Living large with the world at his feet etc etc

But ....I reckon he'll re engage and destroy the pretenders such as Jordy and Julian .

Will he match JJF ?

He already has if you take Chopes, Cloudbreak and Pipe as your yardstick...

If we were as committed to learning Portuguese as Medina is to being the best surfer in the world then maybe we'd appreciate him more because his halting English is the great divide between the people that dig his surfing before a blistering ride and those that accept it as a grating reality post tense.

Fucker rips and if it wasn't for the overwhelming levels of attention given in Brazil he'd still be hungry.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 8:59am

Nah...yes he is in the top three surfers in the world and completely rips.

But IMO John John is a much better all round surfer and has that magic something you only see once in a generation, you could call it style but i think it's something else something there is no word for it's like he has sold is soul to be one with the ocean.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 10:31pm

Competitively, maybe.

But I'd rather watch Julian or Jordy surf anyday.

Pump pump pump, hop hop hop, flailing arms- no thanks.

I though Stu Kennedy looked great in that heat but was outsurfed by Medina fair and square. Stu was the better looking surfer imo though.

That's the beauty of surfing I suppose.

Ignorance is Zen

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 10:32pm

And then there's Mick...

Ignorance is Zen

Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68 commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 10:39pm

JJF has been asleep for the last couple of events but he has awaken again. Coffin ripping too. Awesome conditions at JBay.

Epic viewing :-)

Crystal Clear

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:14am

Yep Rabs, Connor beautiful on-rail surfing.

Ignorance is Zen

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 11:30pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't jjf win the Eddie, triple crown, pipe masters and world title and release the all time highest grossing action sports film all in the one year? Until medina does this, he will be forever playing catch up to jx2.

Plus until medina surfs the way jjf did at margies last year then he's just kidding himself

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Saturday, 15 Jul 2017 at 11:45pm

Totally Goof.

And I'd like to add, Fillipe, faster, smoother, more radical and just sooooo good. And a better command of the English language.

Michel was brutal.

Lordy, how good was this first day!

Ignorance is Zen

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 4:58am

What a great day of waves for the first round!
Some fantastic performances from Double John, Mick and Joel but what about Wiggley blowing his wave with a claim after a sick barrel??!!!
He could have won the heat with a couple of good hits after he came out of that tube but fell being a show off !! Will they ever learn ???

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:15am

Blowin clearly trolling.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:32am

Ya reckon?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:38am

No, but how else to tell him he's deluded?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:39am

OK, I've figured it out...

You're fucken deluded, Blowin.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:45am

Ha ha!

Tell 'im he's dreamin'.

Ignorance is Zen

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 9:54am

JJF is incredible but at JBay I love watching the big bottom turns too that he doesn't put in.
Maybe because I really identify with that and his top turns are so far beyond the realms of possibility for me.
Good to see the different styles out there and as long as it's pumping, only great surfers will progress.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 10:18am

I was so pissed when I wrote that. Couldn't really tell you what I was thinking at the time.

I was deluded . Now I see the light

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 4:29pm

I'm gonna sound like a broken record, but I'm very surprised that the WSL called yesterday's surf "4-6ft faces" (i.e. 2-3ft in everyone else's book). They stated it in the morning email update and then the post-event press release. Some of the sets looks just shy of double that size.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 4:45pm

I would have called yesterday 3-5 with bigger bombs in surfer scale.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 4:49pm

Same.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 5:34pm

same also

simba

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 16 Jul 2017 at 6:02pm

4-6ft faces, haha, what were they watching?

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Monday, 17 Jul 2017 at 11:26pm

They need to put in another cam at the end of the impossible section. Numerous waves where the end goes unviewed because there's no camera to capture the action.