New Zealand overshadows Australia...for once

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

We've only just started to feel the effects of winter's true bite across the country the past week, and this lag in seasons has also translated over to New Zealand.

Today, a large and unseasonal easterly groundswell is currently impacting the country's east coasts under blue skies and offshore winds.

This swell was generated by an incredible mid-latitude low over the weekend, forming well south of Tahiti.

This low sat stationary east of New Zealand, supported by a strong high pressure ridge to its south and south-west, pumping out an amazing fetch of 35-45kt+ winds. At this time of the year, this type of stationary system is uncommon, but the Kiwis aren't complaining with large clean surf today and tomorrow easing the pain from the weekend's rugby loss.

Unfortunatly for Australian surfers, the North Island will shadow the swell from our East Coast. Drawing a line from the strongest part of the low to Queensland shows that the Sunshine Coast will receive the bulk of the swell, grading smaller from the Gold Coast south across the NSW border.

Ben discussed this in his forecaster notes yesterday afternoon, with a slow building trend expected on Thursday ahead of a peak Friday morning to a long-lined and inconsistent 3-4ft+ at open beaches.

The Gold Coast will be a smidge smaller with 2-3ft+ sets down to about Yamba, smaller further south.

This puts forward a classic case for the “if New Zealand didn't exist we'd receive more swell” party, but with these events being fairly rare, I'd rather keep New Zealand where it is, helping trap easterly tracking storms that'd otherwise continue off into the South Pacific Ocean.

Hawke's Bay 16-Day Forecast Graph
Gisborne 16-Day Forecast Graph
East Cape 16-Day Forecast Graph
Other New Zealand Locations

Comments

Tarzan71's picture
Tarzan71's picture
Tarzan71 Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 4:39pm

Had fucking pumping waves in Hawkes Bay last year, not saying where, the locals who befriended me would do a Haka on me if I did. Do yourselves a favor and have a look!!

Simon Hayward's picture
Simon Hayward's picture
Simon Hayward Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 4:58pm

There are some spots that will be all time over the next few days.

“if New Zealand didn't exist we'd receive more swell” You'd also be fucked as nothing would ever get done here!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 7:33pm

Haha, this is true.

savanova's picture
savanova's picture
savanova Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 7:31pm

Hey stu no chance of refraction back to east coast NSW u rekon?

poo-man's picture
poo-man's picture
poo-man Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 7:49pm

Coromandel absolutely firing today. Epic Whanga Bar

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 8:02pm

Not only no work done here but we also wouldnt have any decent
V8 supercar drivers.

gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 10:00pm

"I'd rather keep New Zealand where it is, helping trap easterly tracking storms" - Phew, thank God for that!

Now, what about Tassie? Can we vote on removing that instead? ;-)

dylza's picture
dylza's picture
dylza Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 11:28am

Tassie is def a bit of a swell blocker! In turn Bruny Island is this 100km long bit of land just off it stopping so many places down here from getting any of that consistent SW juice too. It would be point break heaven here without it. Instead we mostly get to surf 2ft south arm closeouts and very occasional crowded points when miracle swells come by. Normally never. So I guess we all suffer to a degree haha!

tripper's picture
tripper's picture
tripper Tuesday, 4 Jul 2017 at 10:25pm

If we are going to get rid of islands for more surf, let's start with something smaller. Moreton and Stradbroke can f&&k right off. Imagine the sets ups across Brisbane if they weren't there

50young's picture
50young's picture
50young Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 7:42am

Fark!!!! it would be over run by Brisso's bahahahaha

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 7:50am

Its cooking!!!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11885957

Tarzan you safe as in the bay, but maybe not further north

jimbrown's picture
jimbrown's picture
jimbrown Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 8:40am

Hey Craig, what is it about NZ that helps to trap easterly tracking storms?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 9:41am

It's presence under the right synoptic setup supports Tasman Lows and other tropical depressions/storms, cradling them between the two continents.

The mountain range also helps stall and steer these weather systems, plus the bonus funnelling and strengthening of winds through Cook Strait as the lows cross, generating good east swells.

If it weren't there I'd expect far less of these systems stalling in the East Coast's swell window, with them sliding off to the east.

Looking at similar east facing coasts across the world we rarely see lows stalling off them generating swell.

jimbrown's picture
jimbrown's picture
jimbrown Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 4:56pm

That is fascinating, cheers

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Wednesday, 5 Jul 2017 at 2:59pm

Thanks Craig .

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 21 Jul 2017 at 11:05am

A classic example of New Zealand favouring swell production on the East Coast.

If the winds spinning around the Tasman Low weren't being squeezed by New Zealand's South Island, the fetch wouldn't be anywhere near as strong.

The South Island is effectively pushing against the inside of the low, creating those stronger winds off it's south-west.