You should have been here last week: Quiksilver Pro Forecast
There's something awfully familiar about what's going down on the Gold Coast right now.
In case you're not aware the Quiksilver Pro's towering marquee is in place at Snapper with ruler sharp lines wrapping down the bank in front of it (check the live vision here). The reason it feels like deja vu is that it was only last year when the swell from Tropical Cyclone Winston did the exact same thing, entertaining the WSL construction crew but fading when the contest window opened.
To make matters worse, the Gold Coast has endured one of the worst summers in recent memory. The three month wave drought only broke last week with a mid-range trade swell event.
The big question is: what can we expect when the Quik Pro kicks off next week?
And the short answer is this: you should have been here last week...
Currently a broad and intense Tasman Low is sitting off the East Coast and we'll see it linger in the Tasman Sea all week, pumping out multiple pulses of large SE swell right through until the weekend.
However, just like last year, come opening day we'll only be looking at small and fading leftovers for the start of the Quiksilver Pro. It'll be clean but struggling to top 2ft on Day 1 (Tuesday), and then it'll get smaller from there on.
The forecast models were toying with a weak easterly dip (surface trough squeezing a high in the Tasman Sea) next week, and if this materialises there'd actually be some fun E/NE swell on offer, but the latest updates have weakened this setup.
In the longer term there's a glimmer of hope regarding some long-range Easterly trade-swell from behind New Zealand in the final days of the waiting period, however it's too far out to be confident.
Another factor to consider is how much damage this current south swell will do to the contest bank. At present the outside section at Snapper appears to be holding but Rainbow Bay and beyond have some holes.
As usual we'll provide updates on this in the comments below.
Comments
As Dave Parmenter wrote:
"Surfing is a roaming, nomadic lifestyle, and pays no heed to any timetable other than that of seasons, tides, and the random pulses of swell."
If you move it forward a week next year, who can say if randomness will reward you?
But did Parmenter use orange fin plugs?
I do believe the mag I keep that quote in has an orange cover...
Month long waiting periods 10 events =2month break. More code red and real waves easy right?
A few years Ago I asked quiksilver to do a few things to help. One was making beach access easier. Two was more shaded seating for the kids especially and do this by putting corporate tents at back of snapper rocks road and transfer comp to dbah when it was obviously the spot to surf. No response and even a rude who the feck are you anyways. I juzt laughed and said the bloke whoze good friend the planet just got pissed with you. So we still give the surfers epic swell-kirra awesome earlier today. But the comp gets back the respect from my friends the wind and water they gave me. The curse can be reversed. Yesterday I saw a girl washed from the rocks at greenmount. In the water bleeding and upset but a mal rider ten feet away didn't paddle over to help her. He was too busy styling to the crowd. Sums it up. We can be better than this can't we? Or curse will become worse.
Any chance they'll move to D'bah
I'm seeing the possibility of the sling shot fetch coming off the top of the Tasman high, feeding into the trough off the east coast. That should generate some surfable E/NE swell based on latest charts. Difficulty will most certainly be contending with the accompanying devil winds!!!
Yeah that's the one worth keeping an eye on, but GFS is still pretty weak.
Any chance they will F**K right off. Great work there this morning they have built the surfers area too close to the ocean & restricted public beach access. Complete disregard for public safety. Just run by a bunch of F'wits I guess
I thought DBah wasn't and option due to the event being sponsored by Qld tourism and dbah being in nsw. I
rumor has it that if the Qld govt doesn't throw in more $'s next year , this will be it's last.
D-Bah is in NSW , which does throw up a lot of sponsorship problems to move there.
A long time ago , when the snapper first started , the first weeks of march was decided on as the best time of year , and now they have moved out of this time of the year , because they need to save $;s and have the Aust leg ASAP , all because they have to work around Easter dates changing every year.
Is it still that WSL aims for 2 oz events instead of 3?
Remember when the Quik Pro had more mobility? From the event's 2003 press release:
"The Quiksilver and Roxy Pro boast a mobile element, granting organizers access to some of the best surf breaks on the planet. The event will be based at Snapper Rocks; yet can travel from Stradbroke Island to Ballina in the south, across the New South Wales state border in search of optimum conditions. Venues such as Snapper Rocks, Greenmount, Kirra and Burleigh will hold priority".
http://www.grindtv.com/surf/the-quiksilver-pro-set-to-run-on-australias-gold-coast/
@thermalben
That was fourteen years ago, a very different organisation runs surfing now days.
they have a table to move.
Ha, ha, Pisser. My thoughts exactly. The Yanks take themselves far too seriously when it comes to these things.
Don't know if you saw the WSL Broadcast this morning, but they have removed the desk this year, apparently at Pete Mel's insistence.
Yeah Pete seems the real deal and a nice guy with his feet on the ground. Good on him. I just noticed your daily update is from VISSLA how long have they been around as I thought they were another US mob but the web site says they are Burleigh based?
Since late 2013.. we did a article here:
https://www.swellnet.com/news/surfpolitik/2013/11/08/paul-naude-launches...
Yeah they have a Goldy office.
they can't take a trick right now.
I just cant but help have this grim satisfaction about this. Coinciding with the recent Samsung sponsor drop article and related comments, i just wonder how the WSL is market this.
I would prefer it if they had a nice swell early on. Got thru their endless heats. Provided some great surfing, some of which I would have enjoyed, and then moved on early.
Poor to marginal conditions and the delays and the frustrating unavoidable baloney and the dysfunctional competition conditions and hanging around for the full comp window, that is very tiresome.
Not to mention they've actually got to run both the guys and girls during this period.
Wow/ it's going to be another entertaining event
Freddy P rock hops with commentary from Ross Williams.
Massive blow ups from the competitors. More than interesting morning shows,
detailed analysis of why the CEO quit his own business. Explanation of the stalemate between Huey and the WSL.
More to come after the break.(with no adverts to display in the break )....
Yeah I would love to see great surfing in great waves dbah no problem
Tweed shire happy to help. Good spectators venue plus camera angles.
Has to have multiple heat's at once plus wild card joker. Online viewers pick say three surfers just losing heat. They them go out six minutes survival. Gotta catch two waves -at snapper. Brings viewer into play plus makes surfers have to perform. Interactive real time coverage is the way to go .let judges decide winners. But if Stephanie says her next wave o's to be openly judged let otherwise be so. Give a minute and then give judges score and one lucky winner that picked same score wins a prize. Maybe One of Stephanie yachts or new York penthouses etc etc maybe even a round of golf with Donald Trump. Got a bit carried away there too much body bashing with my new Chechyan mate Vladimir. Action and interaction is what's needed. But let's get to know our athletes a bit more. We all love and relate to others if they share their stories with us. I can help you out big time. Just text and after a bodysufing swag I'll invite you t o a vision you may not have envisioned.
Update: It looks like the models are aligning more regarding the building high pressure ridge through the Coral Sea and we'll probably see fun amounts of E'ly trade-swell through the period.
Nothing big but good contestable surf and better than yesterday's outlook.
Yep, GFS aligning with long range EC, but winds still look sh1t for Snapper based on GFS.
EC looks much better swell and wind wise. Also EC showing something to keep an eye on early-mid next week....a little E'ly dip on the northern flank of the high, up between New Cal and SE Qld. Worth keeping an eye on over the next few days of model runs.
latest accG chart has taken steriods....
Fck me!!!
And EC onboard also.
gfs has potential trough off Mackay around the 19th..... So who knows.
Stir the pot and Christ knows what will turn up.
Longer waiting periods / more flexibility with time frames?
next week looks like a disaster for quicky pro.............rain and ne winds?
Yeah mate. Lost. Our way. Too busy catching waves while bleeding girl could have been given safer passage to shore. When we promote unity aloha vibe we get waves viewers and sponsors. Plus get interactive get surfers moves turned into real time app. But I have said enough and like the horrendous scar on my right arm from another blatant drop in. Board riders are wannabes. Go on get out there four foot plus with nothing but just you to get back to shore and jet ski sup or leash free longboarder just reminds me it's a circus and I'm a clown.
Yeah. I hope it's shit too. Christie fully deserves to still be on tour. Can we get a definition on back pedalling please?
Firstly, who gives a crap if it's raining? If the comp was at north wall ballina yeah ok.
Secondly, There'll be waves... maybe good waves.... In the 170w 30s region, a possible swell may have enough angle to get past north island nz... The system looks lkike forming around the 16th/17th. It sort of hangs in there, even drifts north, remains a dip till at least the 21st.... That will be pushing a se tending ese thru to east swell over that period into 160e 30s region. And that region at the same time will active, with a squeeze between Fraser Is and a large high creating a pretty decent trade fetch....
These "double source" swells are really hard to calculate... They are often under called, as people just look at the trade fetch, and don't realize a distant longer swell is in the mix.
Locally on the goldy, around the 19th should see some south east winds (going by the predicted charts).... Probably start off with quite contestable consistent 3 foot at 8 to 9 seconds.... The swell should kick the following day....
Whatever.
Looks like it'll be on!
Nice work professor sheepdog. As much as it's a formula one corporate wannabe, seeing great surfers in decent waves is always a joy.
I disagree, it'll be a "you should have been here last week" scene , another bad event, doomsday situation for wsl.
Well im hopeing they get great pumping waves for the event. Its a pleasure and delight
watching the very best surfers in the world tearing the surf to pieces and giving groms
some heros to admire.
Looking good for the weekend now. Nothing like last week but there'll be some good waves at Snapper.
I agree, should have been there last week, this week looks like east swell hey as compared to last week sth swell which was much better hey.
Would be surprised if they run two or three consecutive days at Kirra. Looks like there'll be plenty of size and it handles E/SE winds reasonably well.
gday davo, old china....... It's gonna pump.... The squeeze I mentioned out off Fraser is looking more impressive by the minute..... Possibly even a little low forming between qld and new cal, which looks to move west, cradled by the high off nsw.... Not classic cyclone swell... But decent swell... Think I'll upgrade my 3 foot call lol
Legend. May you be happy. Had great body surf thru bay today. Thanks to all board riders for not running me over. In fact after every one saw me so stoked with a few sliders Off the keyhole it was awesome vibe. Thanks to everyone out there. Especially to local jf who was just buzzing after I got three dredges then smashed and then he went to town. We do this for fun. Mantra.
Thursday afternoon and Friday look very interesting regarding the small low drifting, south, possibly swinging winds S/SE on the former and light offshore Friday morning.
Kick off tomorrow lunchtime with the women?
More likely Thursday.
We are producing a daily surf report video for the Quiksilver Pro, available via our Facebook page. Here's this morning's clip.
I'm assuming this is NOT for the WSL? Just something SN is doing on their own? Otherwise it doesn't make sense Vissla sponsoring SN to do something for Quiksilver/WSL?
People are trying to talk it up...crazy - stick with Craigs "should have been here last week headline".
"great" conditions for Kirra?
Really? Yes they'll have waves but the winds certainly won't be "great" for kirra IMO. Surfable and contestable, but to say "great" is a bit of an overkill IMO.
Let's wait and see, eh? These troughy patterns have a habit of producing funky microscale systems up and down the coast and there's every chance we could see periods with a little more south in the wind direction than is modeled.
Agreed but brief periods of flukey winds doesn't clean up the periods of onshore junk. E'ly winds don't make for great conditions at Kirra. And the strength of winds forecast for the weekend will limit the ability for wind conditions to go "flukey" IMO. But anyway. We're arguing over semantics here. At least they've got plenty of swell on the way to pick the eyes out of the forecast. Problem is after Sunday there's just gonna be one big storm bar extending off the rocks northwards at snapper which will just make the wave crap after Sun.
I personally think they'll run as much as they can from Thurs-Sat.
Indeed, it's early days and the models will continue to move around up until the weekend. So I'm definitely not ruling anything out, and gut feel tells me there's gonna be some great waves at Kirra at the height of the event.
So what's your call then for the "height of the event"? ie best day/s to run
As I mentioned yesterday morning (on the video report) I'd run the event from tomorow (Thurs) through Tues, back-to-back days (remember they have two events to run so around 6 full days of competition).
Sunday could be in the 6-8ft range at exposed spots and 4-6ft Kirra. Though I haven't looked closely at the model deviations yet, will do so later.
Ben speaks the truth! For instance, the latest GFS run (18Z) has perfect winds on Friday.
Yep, EC had this scenario as mentioned yesterday.
As an example, today's modeled forecast was for E'ly winds tending NE into the afternoon.
But the Seaway was W'ly at 6am, and has been moderate S thru' S/SE from 7am - 9:30am, only tending E/SE on the last reading.
Those conditions would have been pretty good for Kirra.
As another side note, it's interesting to see the winds at Snapper not necessarily lining up with observations from the Cooly airport - yet it's only 4.5 kilometeres away from the contest site (and just over 1km from the coast).
Like it good work Ben!
In the old gatta, when I was a young grommet waaaaaaaaaay back when, greeny used to pump in an ese wind with an ene swell, coz it broke real close to the rocks.. was totally protected by the headland..
Greenmount in the early 80s, close to the rocks.
Snapper thru to kirra before the ridiculous sand pumping..... Options - from sw wind to ese....
How did the snapper pre superbank point break compare to the snapper section of the superbank of now sheep dog?
Check the well defined white water line Halfy.... Section behind the rock may not have been as consistent..... But it pumped. And back then Kirra was real Kirra... It would break next to the big groyne, with a heaving dbah style wedge then freight train down the point.... Rainbow had it moments.... And greenmount was like a fun wave pool.. Now due to the sand pumping, the crowd is not dispersed like when there were several decent options.
ps - wouldn't you love to own the old holden in mint condition now lol
The HR the Kombies and the Mazda bongo = over a $100k +..very collectable now
Ha ha you have said this before Sheepdog, maybe it was true in the 70 or 80,s but having surfed the area regularly through the late 90's to just before the Superbank was formed although there was times it was perfect there was also long periods where it basically lacked sand.
Where Snapper didn't have much of a bank or went wide, even times where it was like a beach break with even lefts either way often it was pretty short and the locals always got the best waves.
Leaving the options of:
Rainbow bay which was often basically a swimming hole with the odd reform.
Then Greenmount on a good day was fun, but most of the time super gutless as swell had already broken out at Snapper then reformed.
Then Kirra was generally epic when on, but obviously needs a good size swell.
Ive never surfed the super bank, but from what i can see now it's got more potential, obviously it comes at the expense of proper Kirra though.
Roxy Pro is live! There ya go. Surprised they're running though; winds are moderate to fresh NE and it looks like a dog's breakfast.
That is so fucking wrong sending the girl out in that shit
Make a stand girls and say no way
Craigs opening line in this Article -
Something awfully familiar going down on the Gold Coast right now.
Absolute rubbish.
WSL press release just arrived:
Event officials placed competition on hold due to the high tide, and after seeing the conditions improve throughout the morning, are pleased to kick off the event.
"We have been waiting here all day for the tide change and the waves are starting to do their thing. It will definitely be tricky out there for competitors, but we are confident there is enough on offer for the world’s best to rip into.” - WSL Deputy Commissioner Jessi Miley-Dyer.
Obviously thinking Rd 1 doesn't matter as it's a no loser round anyway.
Also girls may struggle as the swell builds over the weekend.
I'm claiming it the call......saaaaaaaaaaaaaa
What a joke! I can't believe they ran the girls in that puss! How the f--k do they expect to get / keep webcast viewers running in that kind of wave quality.
Maybe the new catch phrase should be:
World's best surfers in waves that you wouldn't get out of bed for.
Firm believer that it used to easier to get waves pre-superbank. Don't know if I'd call them 4 great waves...more like 1 best wave ever and 3 good waves. Snapper was off and on depending on sand...I remember it being a deep hole for years at one stage. Rainbow could get fun but an in between wave at best. Greenmount was most consistent and lined better but a cutback wave mostly. All could get really good on there day. Old Kirra...well let's just leave that as a special memory for those of us who surfed it. The best thing about the "pre" days was it spread the crowd and skill levels between them. Now it's just a free for all shitfight.
@Crg That a more accurate description.
70s Greenmount was always known as Powder Puff Point
Fong, yeah I scored some decent left at snapper too bahahahahaha... Hilarious aye..... I think around 1988, a heap of sand was real wide, and the funnest left was peeling in to rainbow bay.. The right of it was fun, too but died out heading towards greenmount....
But sometimes Snapper would link all the way through to Greeny.... I remember Rabbit just tearing it apart, deliberately spraying me so hard it felt like I was bitch slapped.
Also, at times you'd get fun peaks on Coolangatta beach believe it or not.... There used to be a real fun little shorey righthander on high tide just to the left of greenmount.... Short hollow lefts similar to mooloolabah in the middle, and a heaving body board left closeout up near the kirra wall.... Fuck did we get slammed boysurfing there on onshore shitty day lol..
And of course there was little kirra (2nd rock wall), which on its day pumped..... And sausage groin kirra further north.....
But it's all gone now..... Yeah modern day snapper pumps.. Wide fake Kirra can pump too.... However if I was to choose, I'd take the old gatta any day..
Below shows old greeny, close to the rocks, wich remains glassy on an ese wind, even an easterly was manageable....
Below is where the REAL kirra take off is.... Also note the a frame peak white water line further up the gatta beach.
Whaddya man REAL Kirra? Those photos are taken after the Tweed training walls went in.
I've got a '62 issue of Surf International with a spread on Kirra and most of the waves are lefts.
hahahahahahaha...... I see your real pic of Kirra... And raise you a pic of the original "flagstaff beach ;)
Before my time surfing there, but I'm told, in the early 60's, as well as the famed Kirra Point rights, there was a left that could get good about where Coolangatta Creek comes out at North Kirra.
i knew it!
all that wall building, croyne scratching and sand pumping was done just to turn a left into a right.
Latest Forecater Notes:
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-...
Possibly 6-8ft Kirra sunday for the comp....cant wait.
Kirra won't be quite as big as other, more exposed locations - so I'd pull back those size estimates for now.
But yeah, looks pretty solid!
Gives the old Gatta any day. With scattered breaks, there were waves for all. Each would be good on its day. Surprised WSL started with the women, rubbish stuff. Great to see those old photos ... ahhh the Old Patch days.
Hot diggity dawg!
The WSL has called the event ON for 7am AEST - i.e. 8am Sydney/Melbourne time - though they haven't stated if it's the Mens or Womens (though does hint at Mens).
Here's the latest forecast update: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2017/03/16/quiksilver-pro-forecast-update