Christmas 2016 Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Well, once again Christmas has snuck up on us seemingly out of nowhere. Fortunately Christmas falls on a weekend this year which opens up a good window to chase some waves around the country.

So then, where's going to pump?

West Oz will bring home the chocolates this Chrissie with a moderate to large groundswell event expected to arrive on Saturday afternoon, which is Christmas Eve. The forecast is for a very strong low to fire up in the southern Indian Ocean, projecting 35-50kt winds towards the south-west of the country.

The swell should build through the afternoon, reaching an easy 6-8ft+ by dark across Margaret River and 2ft in Perth, peaking overnight and then easing from 6-8ft and 2ft respectively on Christmas Day.

Winds later Saturday will be good for protected locations in the South West, while a fresh to strong SE breeze should open up plenty of options to test out those fresh sleds across the state on Sunday.

Moving over to South Australia and the best waves over the weekend will be at exposed beaches owing to light winds with small swells.

However, come Boxing Day and WA's swell is due to fill in. There'll be favourable winds for the Mid Coast, though there'll only small and inconsistent 1-2ft sets on that stretch.

In Victoria, the Mornington Peninsula beaches, Phillip Island, and other exposed breaks will be best over the festive period.

No major swell is due, with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and infrequent sets around 3ft across the exposed beaches to the east. E/NE winds will create great conditions on the beaches though the mornings.

Moving up the East Coast and a mix of easterly trade-swell energy is expected across most spots, mixed in with some north-east windswell across the southern NSW coast.

On Saturday, longer-range energy from near Fiji should come in around 3ft to possibly 4ft in Queensland and northern NSW, persisting Sunday before easing off into Monday as closer-range energy takes over.

Winds look to be a bit of an issue though with persistent E/SE breezes, favouring protected bays and points.

The swell will be smaller on the southern NSW coast with an inconsistent 2ft to possibly 3ft from Saturday afternoon, through Boxing Day along with similar size north-east windswell Monday.

The mornings will be best with lighter more variable winds from the N'th ahead of fresh NE sea breezes.

If you're situated on the Apple Isle, the South Arm won't provide much in the way of surf, but the North-East Coast is expected to provide some building north-east windswell Christmas Day, peaking Boxing Day with light morning offshore winds.

Comments

talkingturkey's picture
talkingturkey's picture
talkingturkey Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 at 1:14pm

merry friggin' xmas!

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 at 3:15pm

Thanks Craig and SwellN. Looks like it will ham and beer time on Chrissy day ... fetch is just too far away. Merry Xmas SN ... done good.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 at 4:15pm

if we get 3ft. thats my xmas pressie from you craigo :)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 at 4:21pm

Nice one Craig, seasons greeting everyone.

the chase's picture
the chase's picture
the chase Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 at 6:32pm

Merry Christmas All.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 21 Dec 2016 at 6:13am

Cheers guys, Merry Christmas to you all to!

Looks like the W/SW groundswell for Vic and SA on Boxing Day is looking a little better this morning.

The Mid Coast should see easy 2ft sets with SE winds.

The swell is a little west for the Surf Coast but should reach 3ft on the sets into the late afternoon and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula although a S'ly change will limit options.