The coming cyclone season is predicted to be a return to normal says the Bureau Of Meteorology in their 2016-17 cyclone outlook.

Dr Andrew Watkins is the Climate Prediction Services Manager at the Bureau of Meteorology and he said Australians should expect an average to above-average tropical cyclone season, due to neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

“This year we’re experiencing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, and this will help to fuel the tropical cyclone season ahead,” said Dr Watkins.

“History shows that in an average season, about eleven cyclones form in the Australian region between November and April."

A strong and persistent negative IOD event is the cause of warmer waters off north-western Australia, while the warmer waters off the East Coast are linked to a weak La Nina signal.

In regards to cyclone activity, Australia is split up into thee regions: Western region; Northern region; and the Eastern region. Only the latter is of concern to surfers as it includes cyclones that form in the Coral Sea and provide swell to the East Coast.

Of the eleven cyclones that form in an average season just four occur in the Coral Sea. The BOM are predicting a 58% chance the Eastern region will come in above average. Meaning a higher than average chance that more than four cyclones will form.

"It is highly unlikely Australia will see a cyclone season as quiet this year," Dr Watkins said.

Last year Australia had the lowest number of tropical cyclones since 1969 – when cyclone records began to be collected - with just three forming in Australian waters during the season. Of those three, only one, TC Tatiana, formed in the Coral Sea. The others formed off Australia's north-west coast.

Tatiana was short-lived and only reached Category 2 status. It delivered one day of waves in Queensland and the northern NSW coasts. It's worth noting that the BOM aren't including TC Winston in their records as it formed outside Australian waters yet it was the best performing cyclone for surfers, providing 6-8 foot waves at it's peak for most of the East Coast.

Tropical Cyclone Winston on the NSW South Coast

Aside from those two events, four tropical tropical lows formed in the Coral Sea last season. With an above average expectation of cyclones a concomitant rise in tropical lows is also expected this year.

While an increase in tropical activity is expected, this doesn't automatically relate to better swell prospects for Australian waters. Sustained trade winds from flat top high pressure systems generate much more consistent surf for Queensland and northern NSW than a rare, solitary cyclone. Still, there's something enthralling about tropical cyclones and the prospect of big, powerful surf.

Cyclone season officially begins 1st November. //STU NETTLE and CRAIG BROKENSHA

(SST image thanks to Intergrated Marine Observing System)