Indo set to rumble again

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It's been a long time between drinks. Bintangs to be precise.

It's been a quiet couple of months in Indonesia, the incredible 'Muzza Swell' is but a distant memory. Since that swell – which hit in June – there's been very few swells of interest.

But finally, heading into the first month of spring a couple of large and powerful groundswells are brewing in the southern Indian Ocean. They're not as large as the Muzza Swell – which was undoubtedly the swell of the season – but they're worth paying attention to.

A strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough is currently moving east from under South Africa and will supercharge a polar frontal progression, projecting a broad and elongated fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds towards Indonesia.

The frontal progression will weaken through the end of this week as a weaker front splits and projects towards Western Australia, helping keep the size and consistency of the swell in good stead for Eastern Indonesia.

The long-period forerunners are due to arrive overnight Sunday in Bali with the swell building strongly through the day Monday, reaching 8ft+ by dark across exposed breaks before peaking Tuesday morning to 8-10ft with the possibility of the odd 12ft cleanup set.

The Mentawai Islands will see the swell kick very strongly later Monday to 8ft to occasionally 10ft across exposed breaks on dark before easing from a similar size range Tuesday morning and further Wednesday.

Moderate to fresh SE trades are due across Bali as the swell builds and peaks, weakening a touch into Wednesday. The Mentawais will see fresh to strong but easing SE trades Monday, weakest through Tuesday.

Longer term we may see another large S/SW groundswell for the following Monday the 7th of September but we'll continue to watch this in the regular Indo forecasts on Tuesday's and Thursday's. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day Mentawai forecast graph

Comments

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 4:44pm

Ya ya ok craig nice cast

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 5:53pm

Bingo

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 7:52pm

That rumble is the sound of Gary G droppin' the weights in the gym, gettin ready to land in Kuta and charge this big swell. Been using my little european jaunt as the ultimate warm up, you guys

It was Big and Stiff Onshore in France Yesterday morning, and that was just in Gary's hotel room. Outside, conditions were much the same, so I didn't get a chance to show the locals how its done in the surf and had to settle with turning a few heads around the town.

I may even get to surf my favourite bali wave on this swell - Gary's Right.

Sickaz's picture
Sickaz's picture
Sickaz Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 9:08pm

yeah well I know the real gary who named that righthander (it's actually a left).

We used to surf there in the 70's back before it got crowded.....

I was actually the second ever person to surf there, behind gary. I closely missed out on the naming rights but i think sickaz rights has a nice ring to it.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 9:14pm

What a classic upholder of the name Gary that bloke was, just going out and taking the naming rights. Maybe if your name was Gary instead of Sickaz you would have had lady luck smile on you a bit more. I gotta agree with you though, Gary's Sickaz Rights sounds pretty sweet.

When I'm out there at Gary's Rights I make sure everyone knows that Gary has the Rights to all the sets cause come one come all when it comes to Garys.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 5:30pm

Legend.

mibs-oner's picture
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mibs-oner Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 7:56pm

Any boats need a deckhand for a fortnight?

jarrydgray's picture
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jarrydgray Tuesday, 25 Aug 2015 at 9:46pm

Just in time for the last day of the Padang Padang Cup waiting period by the looks of it.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 Aug 2015 at 3:47pm

Confirmation of 50-60kt fetch in the southern Indian Ocean..

Gary G's picture
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Gary G Wednesday, 26 Aug 2015 at 4:46pm

Such a great portrait of Cyclone Gary, Craig. A bit abstract to my usual art tastes (on the subject, I was blown away by Warnie's mural last week) but I like how you can make out my abs, and my torso is focussed perfectly towards the bar at Alley Cats.

crip's picture
crip's picture
crip Wednesday, 26 Aug 2015 at 5:56pm

Bugger! Heading back from G-Land Tuesday morning, just at the peak of the swell - not that I would be able to make use of the size but it would have been nice to see big G-Land (maybe Speedies) and it's also gonna be a very uncomfortable boat trip back!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 12:17am

Walking the track out of g-land might be worth enquiring about crip .

caml's picture
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caml Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 8:11am

Craig seeing that the lwt is there in position and a big storm doing its thing . What happens to it after the first storm, does it remain there or what ? I can't see the usual continuation of storms .what do u see happening ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 10:46am

If the LWT maintains its strength it will continue to feed storm after storm, this is what happened a couple of weeks ago in Victoria and South Oz with front after front steered up into the south-east of the country.

If it maintains its strength and moves slowly east, so will all the successive frontal activity.

If it just weakens, then you'll get just one really strong system, then weaker systems behind, similar to what this LWT node is doing.

caml's picture
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caml Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 4:34pm

Yes thats exactly what im concerned about craigo . It doesn't look like it will continue feeding storms along the conveyor belt . I thought you might know more than I do

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 4:41pm

No it won't unfortunately. Will weaken while pushing through the Bight likely causing a cut-off low to form which is poor for swell and winds.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 4:45pm

those cut-off lows have been there all winter.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 4:58pm

Haven't they!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 5:05pm

Ok thanks for confirmation . In the past those lwt have been the recipe for big surf or a great time to go to indo or nw oz but this time it looks like a one off event . Not the jackpot that I would bolt north for or get my hopes up for another batch of swells of the decade . Word is that nw wa has had worst ever season . But we knew that was gunna happen back in may already with the el nino promising plenty offshore winds in margs & sa right ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 5:10pm

LWT nodes (peaks) are still the reason for most large swells Camel, it's just that the biggest of the biggest swells are only made by the strongest and slowest moving/stalling nodes.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Thursday, 27 Aug 2015 at 7:32pm

Yeah well thats why I want one of em asap

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 8:02am

Hey Craig any thing brewing on the charts long term?

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 8:42am

Same question I had cylinder read above

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 9:51am

Morning Craig,

Just want to let you know that Gary really appreciates how you consent to the ongoing clarification of your forecasts. It's great to have consensual relationships with your readers.

And as we all know, you can't spell consensual without Sensual

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 28 Aug 2015 at 3:50pm

Stormsurf model 180hrs has just what we want . In the form of a red blob

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 7:44am

Big tides Camel too. Good Outside Corner I think.

caml's picture
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caml Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 10:10am

Yeah mick ! & that long range still shows a little storm for next week out.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 12:02pm

Had to happen. Knew sept was gonna pump. I'm currently in KL airport after two weeks in Indo and it was incredibly quiet surf wise and winds were unusually consistent S'ly where I was. Heard Ments/Telos was even worse wind wise.

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 3:11pm

Unlucky don are the crowds thining out?. I am Heading over the 16th September. What's the best long range forcasting tool for there.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 11:19am

I wasn't in the Ments but spoke to some guys on the plane coming back from the Ments and due to the relentless S/SE winds and smallish swells, there was a lot of boats at each break that had waves and semi protected from the winds.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 11:32am

Yeah this year has been plagued by S/SE-SE winds. Not the variable breezes you usually expect.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 8:31pm

Swellnet is cylinder !

Gary G's picture
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Gary G Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 8:49pm

Ol' Gaz had a little hiccup today - left me ATM card in the machine after I went to withdraw some fat stacks upon arrival!

I was all ready to put on a show down at Ulus but I couldn't get down there. I'd even had a Step-up board to pickup on arrival and couldn't get it. I would have dominated out there today though, I'm sure of that. Had to settle with a few Kuta beachies, which don't really suit my muscular style of wave riding - I made sure I explained that to all the onlookers too, I would have looked much smoother on bigger waves.

In the meantime, I've got a great singlet that really shows off the rig - so I'm off to do some of the after hours work that Gaz is known for.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 9:07pm

Gaz ,
Hulu café has reopened ...
Enjoy.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 at 10:35pm

By the looks of the WA bouys this episode of swell maybe a bit of a let down , duration of the size was not long with a big period.

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 8:30am

Yeah Camel I got that feeling too. There's 3 feet of swell showing on the outer reefs today.

All the other models have cut their size by half. Initially MSW was showing 20 foot (wave face eh?) for the Tuesday..usually cut they by half to get the real size. So maybe a peak of 8 foot at 16 secs tomorrow.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 8:57am

Big period 20 @ 3m on nat buoy at first but then it deteriorated in the way of period crash & size rising . Storm duration was always short . & at my local it was smaller than hoped for . Goodluck mf . Still another storm progged tho for a week

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 11:31am

No change for me about the expected peak of the swell. Exposed spots inconsistent 8-10ft, with possible rare bigger bombs.

This means I would be expecting 8ft to possibly 10ft Ulus on the sets.

And Camel, was never going to perform well in SA, way too far away.

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 9:58am

.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 1:16pm

Cool, was just commenting about your comment "local smaller than hoped for".

Not downplaying at all, just keeping in check as people were calling second "century swell" and all that crap.

Also with Padang Cup on standby just looks to be under what would be big enough to run, I'd expect inconsistent 4-5ft waves at Padang.

Great swell yes, second best of the season, but real inco and not that note-worthy for SA/Vicco.

Not treating you at all like an amateur.

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 9:57am

.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 2:03pm

Snowboarding on the weekend yep :)

Working hard and watching the swell as close as you all last week up to and including waiting for the satellite confirmation of the fetch. You're one of the most clued in guys re bigger swells in WA and SA which I highly respect.

All winter this is the second biggest forecast by the virtual buoys, and the second biggest storm I've seen for the Indo region in that time-frame.

Also re Margs heights, our model always overforecasts the raw open ocean size for Margs, and this will hopefully be fixed by running the new Wave Watch Model. NOAA forecast using the new Wave Watch Model are more close to what you see on the buoy.. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/WEB/multi_1.latest_run/plots/multi_1.56006.bull

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 9:56am

.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 2:44pm

Yeah must of read wrong Camel, the amount of knowledge you've built is amazing, and you're a great contributer to the site.

See how this one goes for sure tomorrow, good sets showng on Bali Belly Bingin cam.. http://balibelly.com/bingin Also might have been bigger on WA buoys, but not as well aligned for Indo. Can't seem to remember any major early season swells, but could of been one or two.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 6:34pm

Edited

If ya quick enough that was just a tease.

.

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 12:06pm

Hey Camel, off topic, but I really enjoyed that piece in Surfing Life. Keeping the dream alive. Good on ya. Good luck.......

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 4:49pm

Haha Welly ya can't post that its forbidden.....frickin heck ya get all the aussies excited.

Off to Ulus now. let you know..long period swell was great for morning session at a quite spot here in Bali. Northerly and straight easterly winds this morning

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 6:41pm

Yeah classic 6 of them came over a week before myself and old mate who runs it went and stayed in the tow hut.
Figure 8 that one out eh.

No more apparently ;-P

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 6:55pm

I saw nuthin welly just some fuckn snow on a hill

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 7:35pm

Respect Big C ;-)

Back to the Indo Rumble then eh.

Gary G's picture
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Gary G Monday, 31 Aug 2015 at 10:10pm

Well well well, didn't the swell fill in this arvo like Tinea spreading through a backpackers hostel - I tell ya! Old gaz got out early and showed 'em all how it was done at impossibles before settling in and workin' on the tan.

Missed the arvo session though, asked a lady on the beach at Padang 'Have you got any sarongs' and next thing I know I was accosted from all angles and couldn't break free until sunset! Never mind, will be telling everyone at single fin tonight how I ruled it at Ulus all day - All those waves are just sections of the same reef so I figure i'm just simplifying it for those who don't rip as hard as I do.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 1:29pm

All those waves are just sections of the same reef so I figure i'm just simplifying it

classic!!

go tear up the outside peak at dreamland gary and tell em you dominated the bommie

then get a three girl massage at kuta buga and....

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 12:22am

6-8 feet. Triple overhead at close of play at Outside Corner.....swell is very straight. Bombie not really working. P

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 12:22am

Padang Cup on tomorrow

crip's picture
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crip Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 1:12am

G-Land first thing this morning was 6-8ft faces but quickly kicked to 12-15, upto triple overhead, by mid-morning. I saw 2 broken boards but some crazy rides. Not really happening all the way down at speedies tho. Heaps of crew here, about 120 across all camps.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 6:24am

Wrong direction for speedies crip?

crip's picture
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crip Wednesday, 2 Sep 2015 at 10:36am

Maybe not quite big enough &/or not enough south.

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 7:15am

Thanks for the on ground reports guys! Sounds on money so far.

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 8:50am

Hows the padang cup today any swell still ? Big g-land sounds very interesting !

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 9:08am

B Belly wave cams not showing a lot

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 10:00am

What is that lwt up to craig ? Early spring is looking up in the Indian

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 10:18am

Good question

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 10:24am

As expected, just under the threshold for Padang and the comps been cancelled.

And yeah, spring is looking real tasty, lots of action finally set to go down!

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 11:27am

Wouldn't ya know it, just at the peak of the swell when I was all prepared to tear it up, both my boards are in the shop getting dings fixed from all my ripping of the last few days!

Have tweaked my back a little bit too so probably best I leave it to the kooks, ol' Gaz will have to put on a show some other time. Doesn't look that good anyway.

mick-free's picture
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mick-free Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 12:20pm

Swell peaked overnight. 6 foot this morning ULUS and some bigger ones on bombie. Broke my golden 7'7 Bushman so Camel will order a couple of desert Stormies.

Pretty underwhelming. The froth factor was on the high side.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 12:30pm

Have heard some whispers of some very very good Desert Point yesterday with a cameo appearance from Dane Reynolds. Anyone confirm?

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 2:02pm

Wheres the lwt craig ? Doesn't matter really tho does it . Me & cylinder & a whole lot of people are going to have prayers answered

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 2:10pm

LWT is going to move in and stall to the south-west of WA from Wednesday evening..

Thursday night below.. Great polar frontal progression firing up for WA, SA and Indo.

caml's picture
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caml Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 3:18pm

Ok thanks ! Thanks huey !

leckiep's picture
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leckiep Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 3:57pm

Is this going to send swells to Vicco as well Craig?

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 4:24pm

Yeah, the large swell for WA this Sunday should hit Vicco Monday/Tuesday but only peak around a really inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with some more consistent shorter-range swell in the mix from closer activity under the country during the weekend. Victoria Forecast notes

leckiep's picture
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leckiep Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 at 5:07pm

Thanks!

crip's picture
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crip Wednesday, 2 Sep 2015 at 10:41am

G-land yesterday was a lot smaller than Monday. Hard to tell the size but maybe not even double overhead. The trip back to kuta was not as rough as expected.

caml's picture
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caml Wednesday, 2 Sep 2015 at 11:18am

Ok yeah crip . Dunno wat u were worried about . The journey is fun ...

evosurfer's picture
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evosurfer Wednesday, 2 Sep 2015 at 2:25pm

What type of surfer are you Gary G im finding you a little hard to believe.
A bit of modesty wouldn't hurt. Not everybody can stand out and rip.
Its has a lot to do with how you conduct oneself.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Wednesday, 9 Sep 2015 at 12:23pm

Sorry Evosurfer I didn't see this question.

I know it may be hard to believe but this hunk of Gary is 100% what you see in front of you.

What kind of surfer am I? Ripped and ripping, shredded and shredding. I would consider myself to be modest, considering both my elite rig and ability cause me to naturally stand out from the crowd.

Not that I'd discourage others from trying though, I agree that not everyone can stand out.If you want to judge for yourself I have posted a photo of me getting barrelled on the more recent indo forecast (September continues to pump).

In regards to how I conduct myself? Are you talking about being at the Gym? I can assure you that my form is exceptional.