In: Aritz Aranburu, Dane Reynolds, Tomas Hermes, Caio Ibelli, Maxime Huscenot and Alejo Muniz.

Out: Matty Banting (injury), Freddy Patacchia (retired), Jordy Smith (injury), Taj Burrow (baby) and Kelly Slater (speculated).

Forecast: There'll be no shortage of size, especially in the early rounds with clean, pumping 4-6 foot waves due this evening, topped up by a similarly sized though more powerful groundswell tomorrow. Saturday and Sunday will ease into the 3-4 foot range but be equally clean, providing great waves for the contest.

Like a young lover, the Quiksilver Pro France could see a quick start and and even quicker finish given the forecast. Dredging barrels will be the focus for the judges with at least four days of good sized waves expected beginning today. The CT has put up with some shitty early round conditions at other beachbreak venues this year, but this wont be the case in France. Better conditions should see less upsets, with experience surfing Hossegor’s shifting peaks being the key. Look to your multis.

John John Florence dominated here last year, riding his confidence all the way to first place. This year, however, JJF can't replicate the form. He’s currently placed outside the top ten though bookies still have him short priced and rightly so. Draining sand barrels and peaky beachies suit him down to the ground. Picked for another finals finish.

Jadson Andre was last year’s runner up and although he barely put up a fight in the final, he clearly impressed up until then. Before last year he hadn’t surfed this event since 2012, losing to that year’s winner Kelly Slater in round three. Look for another good result from Jaddy. A quarter final finish won’t surprise.

Current rankings leader Mick Fanning is ‘so hot right now’. Mick’s past results at this event is either right up there or nowhere. If Mick can make it out of Round Two he’s a great chance of winning this event after taking it out four times. I’ve got Mick in for the win.

Mick’s stablemate Gabriel Medina might have made his 2015 World Title run a little late but he’s a proven stayer at this event. Since Gabe jumped on the CT he’s made no less than the Quarters here, two finals appearances and has taken it out once in 2011 over Mick Fanning. Gabe’s late run hasn’t gone unnoticed and I’ve got him in for at least a Semi-Finals finish.

Kelly Slater announced at Trestles that he wouldn’t be competing for the rest of the year due to a sore body and (without saying) a lack of motivation. However, Kelly’s record at France is impeccable and that should be motivation enough. Since 2002 Kelly has has only missed one year (2007), had no less than a Quarter Final finish (six times), Semi Final finished three times, made the Final three times and won once. If Kelly turns up for his first round heat against Jadson Andre and Brett Simpson today you could almost bet your left one he’ll made the semis.

Dane Reynolds draws a crowd, no doubt about it, but his history at France hasn’t been great. Out of seven appearances he’s bombed out in Round Two three times, Round Three twice, made the Quarters once, and the Final once. Hossegor suits Dane but competition surfing does not. If he’s on, he’s on. Watch him in the early rounds and if he’s still smiling come Round 4, keep him in your multis.

There are six call-ups this year at the Quiksilver Pro and we’ve seen how these guys can upset the apple cart, especially the top ten. Alejo Muniz has great technical ability as a past CT'er he's got plenty of experience . Though he has a tough Round One match up (against John John Florence and Jeremy Flores) an upset wouldn’t be surprising. Caio Ibelli has just come second at the Allianz Billabong Pro Cascais in terrible conditions. He’s a former World Junior Title winner (2011) and is assured of making the CT for next year. Recall how confident his compatriates Italo Ferreira and Wiggoly Dantas performed in their rookie contests? It's not beyond Ibelli to make the CT his natural home. As long as he can get through those first heats and into the later rounds when the conditions begin to weaken. Aritz Aranburu has taken some big scalps this year in good conditions. Again, look for a few upsets from Aritz. A Quarter Final finish isn’t beyond him.

Form Guide:

Round one match-ups:

• Heat 1: Kelly Slater, Jadson Andre, Brett Simpson
• Heat 2: Julian Wilson, Miguel Pupo, Aritz Aranburu
• Heat 3: Owen Wright, Sebastian Zietz, Dane Reynolds
• Heat 4: Filipe Toledo, Adam Melling, Tomas Hermes
• Heat 5: Adriano de Souza, Keanu Asing, Caio Ibelli
• Heat 6: Mick Fanning, Michel Bourez, Maxime Huscenot
• Heat 7: Gabriel Medina, Matt Wilkinson, Dusty Payne
• Heat 8: Jeremy Flores, John John Florence, Alejo Muniz
• Heat 9: Italo Ferreira, Adrian Buchan, Ricardo Christie
• Heat 10: Nat Young, Bede Durbidge, Glenn Hall
• Heat 11: Josh Kerr, Kai Otton, Kolohe Andino
• Heat 12: Wiggolly Dantas, Joel Parkinson, C.J. Hobgood

Hossegor Forecast Graph and WAMs