Submitted by Blowin on Fri, 12/09/2016 - 10:27
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
just the facts , ma'am.
And any unsubstantiated theories you might think relevant.
Depends where, of course. Coastal towns with population greater than 200k, then up. Cities, flattening.
Only one thing that matters - position. Another thing that matters - buy your own place, somewhere.
Purely gut feeling, no facts.
Jeez I hope they're going to go up, as of next week I'm going to be $525,000 poorer :(
Over long term debt expands, money supply expands and loses value and property "goes up". Sydney hinged on foreign money supply, may not go up more short term but cash out effect should influence rest of country
Some thoughts ......
Look at the graph of historical house prices in AU to the current day. It is an upward more or less straight line until mid 90's when it has taken an ever increasing rise upwards. This escalation since the 90's was brought about by changes to government policy (too many to mention here and I don't want to buy an argument from the resident neo-cons about Howard). For people that read these things it shows AU house prices are hugely overvalued and that we are in a bubble that will one day burst.
Price bubbles: A good friend of mine lost serious money to the point of bankruptcy in the UK in the 80's when Thatcher and Major fucked the economy their. His point to me was always don't invest in property the middle class want coz when it goes pear shaped they will down size into the worker's cottages. He had high end property that he had to sell at a loss but at the same time cheap housing didn't suffer much at all.
Price bubbles: five things that could cause house prices in AU to fall soon and quickly are (1.) flow effects to whatever Trump does or doesn't do in the US and whether he and China start beating their chests (2.) mortgage interest rate rises here in AU - Q. how far do interest rates need to increase to see large numbers of mortgage defaults given the extreme levels of AU household debt? My guess is not much at all maybe 2-3% (3.) the tightening of mortgage controls here and in China that is already seeing Chinese investors selling up here, this will only increase in speed (4.) the record number of apartments (over supply) being built particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane and the date soon when the people who have put deposits on these projects off the plan need to finalise the purchase (5.) interest only loans - the banks flogged these to investors in the 100,000s but if prices fall, banks will call those loans in and people will have to sell at a loss further escalating the price fall.
The sleeping elephant in the room is SMSF (self managed super funds) and how Howard (again) allowed SMSF to borrow money for investment (e.g. houses). See comment about Interest only loans. So if there is a house price crash, SMSF not only lose there cash in the present but they also have less (or none) for retirement causing further stress to the budget/taxpayer ........ Howard really does have a lot to answer for.
My advice, for what its worth, for people trying to get into the property market is (1.) don't unless you can comfortably afford the repayments on a principal plus interest loan (don't go near an interest only loan unless you have a death wish) and (2.) buy where you can afford (1. above) and live (rent) where you work.
Only my opinion but never leave your balls at the bank .... better to rent
Not a bad summary floyd. Yes, government policies did change the dynamic substantially for the worse, unless you already owned a house or two or three, in which case you're sort of laughing, but only sort of, and you're probably one of Joe Hockey's leaners.
A great example of terrible public policy, terrible personal choice on the part of millions of Australians, and a general lack of understanding about what risk you take on when you are in debt, plus the laughable idea that because nobody ever lost money on houses in our lifetime, that nobody has ever lost any money.
It's on a knife edge at the moment and about 10 different variables have all been pushing prices higher. It will only take a few of those factors to turn the other way and the shite could hit the fan.
More later, I've got a xmas party to go to. Free booze waits for no man.
Unless you are charting prices to money supply you aren't seeing the full picture
the other point i'll make given at least 2 possibly ongoing generations have been or are being locked out of housing is get politically involved, no matter what side you sit demand action by your politicians ....... your parents generation had it good and they are sitting on all of it, demand some via government action ...... I guess that means you will never vote LNP again in your life given their political constipation on all matters that impact on the young.
mk1 ... increased money supply & the historically low price of money (borrowings), two additional and valid issues pointing to the high probability of a crash.
Yeh good summary Floyd
Re. SMSF heard an accountant the other day on RN saying that because the stock market and dividends have basically gone shit since 2008 we've seen a steady increase in retirees pulling money out funds to put into property on the premise you can't lose on property, he seemed quite concerned about the pending results as that combines with some of the other stuff you mention
I reckon you're pretty right about 'workers cottages'. If they don't go up, at least they stay the same, when demand for high end property fall and price follows. This doesn't necessarily apply to workers cottages in boom towns and times, in fact the opposite applies, as we've already seen in Q land.
An extension of this is in the good years semi rural coastal properties and hobby farms go through the roof as people seek holiday homes when the cash is rolling. Parts of Oz experienced a bit of a frenzy for a period there, with bidding wars above list prices. These places seem almost about half price already, and now go below list prices, as they plead for offers!
Long term always up.
Short term, up, down, sideways.
Experts all have different opinions on what is going to happen and for a long time most have been wrong, Floyd's, post sounds good, and who knows he could end up being right, but chances are more likely he will be wrong, although that's not to say we wont or couldn't see a bubble bursting effect one day.
I'm happy to say i have a house about a Km from consistent good waves and i only owe the bank about one third of what my house is currently worth, so I'm pretty happy.
Ive rented heaps when i was younger (about 20 houses) and i hate renting, and i love having my own place, just for the fact i can do what i like, my garden and house to me is just like one big artwork and tinkering with it and adding value for me is like a hobby and rewarding.
Im also happy to say i have three properties in Indonesia all in eyesight of word class waves, so when I'm older and retire, i can rent my house out in OZ and live in my Indo houses. (some still land at the moment)
PS. Yes technically i don't own them them as foreigners can not own property in Indonesia, and yes there is some risk, but each one cost about the same or less than most guys spend on a two week Indo surf trip to a resort or charter boat so even if something happened although it would suck, it wouldn't be the end of the world financially.
And unlike Australia where my rates cost something like $1,800.00 a year only one place in Indo cost me to keep it and the rates are only a few dollars a year.
Great input. Some really well considered posts there.
Anyone lost money on real estate or witnessed a decrease in property places ?
Owing is always, and it is always better to own. At least own something somewhere. An important benefit is that whatever you own, you slowly increase your ownership on a weekly basis. This allows for other benefits for future borrowing. Basically, you are collecting assets that materially increase in value in the long term.
As Indo has done (above), allows you to buy a piece of paradise somewhere else.
Four two bedroom apts next door just sold for $1.1 m each. five years ago they were 525k.
not even me hanging out the front repairing boards, smoking weed, wearing short shorts and no shirt could dampen the auction. the fact that the real estate agent didn't feel the need to slip me a fifty to piss off shows how overheated the market is.
Opinions on the call that Wollongong ( as an example ) has affordable Real estate with a median house price of $620K.
Affordable for who ?
Factor in a $100K deposit then allow for fees, stamp duty etc. your repayments are about $615 per week.
Who can afford that ?
And this is before interest rates go up.....
How do nurses, firemen , cops etc afford this ?
with great difficulty.
I could only afford my upcoming mortgage because its happening with my girlfriend. No way i could be doing it on my own... Well i could, but id be eating rice and bread every day and working 7 days a week
Don't really wish to get personal Goofy, but as we are semi anonymous......
How is that going to be sustainable over 30 years ?
Previously inflation would have reduced your debt, but now ?
And what if interest rates increase ?
From the former head of CBA stating that Aussie housing resembles the Dutch tulip bubble....so much cross vesting of real estate, peeps keep purchasing without any cash just 'equity maaaaate' and when the dominos fall they will HAVE to sell...I'm going to get the popcorn!
Well the plan is that house prices keep going through the roof, which they are on the MP and have been for a long time now. Then in 5 years or so we sell up with a decent profit then do it again. Then again if we need to so we are gradually getting that mortgage down. We are planning o having kids in the next couple of years so it'll be a one income family but my business is becoming more profitable every year so unless something drastic happens i can't see it not working out. All sounds easy hey!
Re the interest rates, if they get up to around 10% we will be ok (ish) Any more than that though and ill be stressing
And Indo D, good stuff mate it sounds like you've got life sorted out at the moment, i love hearing stories like yours. Its an incentive to make you work hard and want to achieve something
Indo has got it happening.
Your doing alright Goofy, no doubt about that.
@goofyfoot, by selling after 5 years you're adding: removal fees; realestate agent fees; solicitor's fees; bank fees; and mortgage establishment fees to the equation. That's a lot of coin you are giving other people and you are carrying all the risk. So the question is why sell once you have gone through the financial reaming the once?
@purplepills, add those comments to those of the former head of the RBA over the last 2 years warning of housing bubble.
if another GFC hits and interest rates run back up to 8 or 9 % again it aint gonna be pretty. i bet everyone know a family or two who might go under, if not themselves.
Its real hard to see where its going, population growth, low interest rates, high prices, large supply of apartments coming onto the market soon, macro issues etc. My gut tells me its unsustainable at the prices in the citys and many coastal towns. As Blowin has stated I can't understand how nurse, fires, teachers, cops could afford a mortgage to buy a reasonable house in the Syd/Melb. These are also good jobs, what about retail staff, cleaners, hospitality etc.
At the same time if i'm an investor I want a return on my 800 grand property so the rent is going to be up there to get the return.
Floyd hopefully the property has gone up enough to make it worthwhile.
If not, we stay there and raise a family and it's all good.
@cd ... rents and rate of return on property. Good point. Wages and wage increases have flatlined so there is a ceiling above which landlords cannot increase rents. I think you will find rates of return on investment are historically very poor for new players, these people are relying on capital growth mostly.
A lot of people are going to lose everything in the Australian property market in the next 10 years. Period.
Another thing people don't always refer to is the actual true cost of investment. You hear people referring to I brought at this price and now its worth this.
Referring to investment here. You also need to account for capital gains tax, stamp duty, maintenance, rates and accumulated cost of interest. There not telling you about these costs around the bbq. Its pretty easy to see how much you pay in interest on a home loan calculator on the net. Its a lot over the loan term. So you if your not getting some solid capital growth your money could be well spent elsewhere. Problem is there aren't to many alternatives in the current situation. Stock market at close to all time highs whilst very volatile and could crash at any time. think trump, china anything could happen. The housing market appears to be at the top of a cycle and also a risk. Where is the employment and wage growth, no political direction. Low interest rates are there for a reason and do not provide any incentive to hold cash.
Its a bloody hard investment climate at the moment.
Saying all that, the best investment I think you can make is into your own house, as long as your can comfortably afford it though.
Attempting to sell a block of land at the moment. Bought in 2008 , there is no way I'm making money on it.
As said previously when you factor in expenses to buy and expenses to sell, add rates over the years, any interest paid on a loan and factor in the inflation inherent in the economy for the last 8 years and it will have cost me money.
Even if I sell it at market rates.
Great enforced savings back then though...
And I might not have pursued work as aggressively if not for the property.
Definitely better investments around if I'd been wiser.
But very safe.
Till now ?
Still pumping in the population.
That's one of the problems with buying land as an investment Blowin. Ants don't pay rent........
Was going to build a house.
Changed my mind.
We've bought in S.E South Oz.... The green corner of the state lol.... 5 hours drive to either Melb or Adelaide... The "big town" Mt Gambier has everything you need.... There's enough work... Not heaps but enough.... Prices are mind blowingly cheap.... Don't know if it will ever boom though...... Dont care either.
Not sure about now but house prices in Oz a few years ago were scary compared to the UK. Pretty much name your price for a property anywhere even remotely desirable ie near the coast, work, a pub and a shop. Just my wife and me, both working full time earning good money would've been struggling had we bought a ready to move into home. Instead we bought a dump, renovated and sold. Back in the UK used the £ to put down a 50% deposit on a 3 bed semi a mile from my favourite beach and pay 0.5% interest on what we owe. Not the only reason we decided against Oz but the overblown property market and sense of impeding bubble burst was up there.
As an aside for any buyers I'd stay well away from the new builds that are being thrown up around the country. Very poor build quality in my experience, the cheapest of cheap materials, doors and windows with a <5 year life span, roofing not much better. They look nice in the brochure but even the 'luxury' homes i worked on got the same treatment and used the same materials as the basic, maybe just a smarter work top and mosaic splash back as a point of difference. In 20 years time these buildings will be coming apart at the seams notwithstanding usual maintenance. Doesn't matter how far up the chain you ask questions either everyone just puts their head down, someone somewhere is making a shit load of money at the expense of home buyers.
Let me guess upnorth...perth?
Nah full of poms, radelaide, brisy, sunny coast mainly. Heard its pricey in WA though, got mates in bussleton who bought a new build last year (landscaping not included wtf) and despite good jobs are planning on heading east in search of a lower cost of living.
You could also look at this in a reverse manner.
How many people actually lose money in real estate? You will get variations because some invest, some buy to live in, some want to build. To get into now is harder in many areas but not all.
Again, it's all about position. You may need to take a punt on that also.
The bubble will burst when interest rates have to rise and Aus household debt needs to be repaid, credit and the banking system building these shanty towns on the outskirts of nowhere are going to create huge financial debt to gullible borrowers.When everyone owes half a mill to the bank, and your fortunate to have union backing for your work conditions,but we need to improve this working lifestyle,who's going to be able to put up their hand,unless you go behind everyones back and rollover.
There is still some very affordable properties around Australia if you take a different mind set.
More a buy a house in an area that you could also one day see yourself living or spending time, meanwhile while your life is happening somewhere else where property is expensive you just rent it out, and ideally the rent comes close to covering the loan repayments.
So quick search on realestate.com
Random area (down towards Sheepdogs way but still in Vic)
Portland few waves and not too crowded, black nose on big swells, plenty of coast to explore east and west.
God, how cheap is land down there, 500m from bay beach that looks pretty nice in pics $30K for a 879m2 block (that's twice the size of many house blocks these days)
Houses 3 bed from $115K, 2 bed units from $85K
Rents from about $200 a week upwards for houses.
Yeah yeah i know its not near a city and possibly not much work.
But just an example.
the growth area of supa is property at the moment and that is feeding into the unaffordability of homes for young people.
ha, Indo you don't want to know what I paid for a place in Ventnor across the road from the beach years ago, owners couldn't sell it, Sunderland bay was even cheaper, man the price of a good second car sort of thing. But you are probably right if you want to affordable housing just go outside that 3 -5 hour drive ring of Melbourne or Adelaide (probably not Sydney unless you favour a tree change in west of Dubbo). It used to be the 1 hour ring! But not a lot of work out there. Goofy, that land behind Pt Leo went out in a fire sale for $30k a block, developer went broke, can't buy there now under $1.75mill. Sand blocks out on Rye back beach way, was it $3k a block? Same on the west coast, same everywhere that I saw. A mate had a block on the hill overlooking Burleigh Heads plus a house across the road from the beach at Coolum, all from wages as a labourer.
Interested to know what people think about where they can now afford to buy, what income is needed, what deposit and size of loan ... i think the answers will be scary.
Exactly what I'm thinking of Floyd.
Yeah Floyd i remember those days in the 90's land and house down here were dirt cheap i remember houses single story going from $30K to big double story houses for $50K
People were basically giving land away because they didn't want to pay the rates on land that was worth nothing and interest rates were crazy high, i was on the dole back then just doing a bit of part time work but i still managed to buy a block for $7K (there was many cheaper) only problem i needed to go halfs with my GF at the time to be able to buy one and the only place we could get money was from her mum, when we broke up i owed her about $3K money from traveling around OZ doing all kinds of things like scuba diving courses and diving on the reef etc (she had money saved from a job), so i had to just pay my debits off and let her have it :(
I moved to QLD soon after and while away things went up crazy amounts and l got depressed over my fuck up for years, to make things worse many of my friends who stayed down here were smart and got in when it was cheap have big luxury house's all paid off or a few houses.
Still I'm happy cant live in the past or dwell on regrets.
thats alot cheaper than what it would cost for a broken family nowdays.
@floyd the article is there along with full interview as well i wasnt quoting yes dutch tulips reference along with the cross vesting and first to sell was from his mouth
agree @cd and thats what i'm grabbing the popcorn for @crg
Stop imigration (from current levels) and curd off shore investment coupled with some government monetary policy and the present situation could have been avoided. Case point in 2012 house in Narrabeen $550 yes true and other spots houses on the NB @$650k. (that cat got offered 3m due to rezoning) Now its 1.2m for a crack den.
Sydney Melbourne are really the only places that are effected in the last 3 months i have been to Darwin,Perth,Brisbane and the are feeling it prices are really starting to soften.
Read a great article and not only is it the government over the last 10 years via policy to inflate and stop the market tanking is the media. Murdoch and fairfax only departments of the empire that are making money is realestate.com.au and domain.com.au and in the media you really never see article on the bust and people have been so conned they wont really know their true predicament till they try and sell.
Sydney and Melbourne will be further along it tanked 3 times in the last ten years this time will be different as we do not have interest buffer nor the economy to save it.
@blowin Old saying 'you make your money when you buy real estate not when you sell'
Some great pockets in Australia still affordable.
Fact - house bought in good eastern suburbs (15 mins from CBD) of Sydney for $1.45million 13 months ago. Yesterday, same house sold for $3 million. Boom boom or crash crash.
let's put it this way,how hard is it to get a commission house if you aren't in the race
Just sold my house so am hoping real estate plummets in the next month, doesn't worry me it's the house we live in so it's not an investment, could have got more for it a few years ago but would have had to pay more for the replacment.
Indo there is so many good reasons why real estate is cheap in Portland, thought long and hard about moving there, but it's not quite right.
slightly different spin on this, apologies in advance, i was s#$t at english in school so this will be formatted horribly.
hearing alot of people saying they are priced out of the market, houses are unaffordable etc etc. yep, do not disagree one bit that houses are rudely expensive BUT, alot of people these days want their family 'keeper' for lack of a better word straight off the bat. Its unrealistic to want to live right ont he beach for your first house. Young kids are doing 6 month round trips of europe, been on multiple ments boat trips pre 25 years of age, examples are endless. somebody needs to explain to them that this could be a house deposit. or to look at it from the other side, il be happy to rent for the rest of my life, f@#$ the house deposit im gonna keep partying and going on constant surf trips till i die. obviously theres a happy medium between the two as well.
Example: ill use 'young families' which seem to be the ones that get mentioned the most in the media etc about being priced out: mick is 30, finds himself with 2 young kids, wife cant work looking after kids, childcare is only 20 bucks a week cheaper than a part time job for her so not worth it etc etc, and now he cant afford to buy a house, finds himself in a cramped unit. okay i accept and agree that and it would be unfair to expect a young family especially a young mother to move away from her support network around that time. So when mick was 25, paying 500 a week to live on the beach in coogee, going on a bender every weekend banging backpackers, sucking down 5 packs of darts a week and spending 150-200 a week on grog, going on his boys trips every 6 months etc etc, he could have easily come up with a house deposit. Now his mate Gazza was 25, had foregone a few of the boys trips, did the odd saturday labouring, got together a deposit and moved into the most weathered ex commission joint on the most criminal street he could find, and provided homestay to 3 helpless saudi students here in oz studying, making a fortune from the uni but never being able to go on holidays. then the boom happened and hes sitting pretty. he has 2 investment properties. He came from the same street as mick, has a young family and nobody ever gave him anything.
what im trying to say is that i feel like theres a bit of entitlement in all of this. If you want a house, f@#$n work for it. i dont accept that the 'dream' is unachievable. move to east nowra and get a job at the prison, move to shalvey and work out of western sydney somewhere. If you find yourself stuck it might be because you made bad financial decisions earlier on. if your 22 and house is horribly out of your price range (which it probably is unless mum and dad help you out) start putting money away. houses arent the only type of investment around. (AND DONT GET A LOAN TO BUY A BRAND NEW CAR AND WRAP IT AROUND A TREE) and then when we hit a different point of the property cycle you can swoop. Note: i do not disagree one bit that house prices are rude at the moment. but i think a much bigger problem than unaffordability is what will happen if there is a bubble burst to the young families that did actually buy in because of the Fearofmissingout Fever and frenzy that the media has created which i think they have alot to answer for. (i dont speculate either way on a bubble cos ive got no idea what house prices are going to do)
now alot of you guys are gonna come back at me and please do cos i want this little spiel to spark some debate,
crustt do you still have holiday let property ?
ROmPer StOMper 2 // oh fuck Aust dont need this.