tropical cyclone in qld in july

It is unusual to see significant (i.e. broadscale) tropical systems across the South Pacific at this time of year, however even if we see something materialise up in the Solomon Islands over the coming days, it's extremely unlikely that it'll make it anywhere near Qld's swell window let alone the Australian mainland.

So unusual in fact that if it becomes a cyclone it will be the first one in July off Qld waters.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-low-north-of-coral-sea-could...

And from JTWC

"THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH."

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9015web.txt

JWTC and BOM have called it this morning.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh2515web.txt

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20065.txt

History in the making right there!!!

Wow, that's amazing! Welcome, TC Raquel.

The start of July and I haven't been even cool surfing in Sydney yet. If the water temperature in the Coral Sea is as far out of its usual range as the water off Sydney there could be more to come.

Perfect for boardies on the Tweed Coast right now; 21-22 degrees.

thermalben wrote:

Perfect for boardies on the Tweed Coast right now; 21-22 degrees.

Maybe for you southerners Ben!!! For us SE QLD folk those water temps combined with cool mornings means it's springy time for us!!!

Serious? Although, truth be told I am wearing a vest (not for warmth, but because I've got a weird bony thing on my chest and I need some rubber to cushion it). 

But everyone's wearing 3/2 steamers around here.. I don't understand. It's like a bath!

3/2 plenty warm enough down in Sydney, even too hot when no wind and sun is out. 2mm short-arm still workable if paddling around a lot.

Warm as and over 19deg.

Surfing is not cool

guys this system is going to form into a double header spanning the Equator . It is all related to the Impending El Nino and shall be the final WWB that puts the chance of a Strong El Nino into fruition .
As for the still warm water around the east coast , atmospheric conditions following this dual tropical situation will see the atmosphere strongly couple with the SST's especially what is going on in the North Pacific with the PDO . So the next 3-4 mth should see alot of Highs returning to dominate the Australian mainland .
Now the water temps will drop , BUT come Dec/ Jan the bounce back from such a strong El Nino shall proceed and we will definitely see increased storm activity and potential wide spread flooding next year . As long as the Indian Ocean stays positive in general SST anom's ( not specifically IOD ) then this coupling will perhaps make 2011 look like a passing shower . TWT

Barley , it's been borderline weak up until this next phase .
( didn't you guys have some rain up in the Nthn Ag region of SA just last week ? )
We are talking weeks of blocking highs coming up .

Well...well...what do we have here!
A Tropical Cyclone off the Solomon Islands.....hmmm.(Nearly said Marshall Islands....Ha! But there's a storm near there anyway ....so....?)
Let's see....Tropical Cyclones are mostly associated with warm water. Very possibly very warm water for this time of year also....hmmm.
Unusually warm water in the Western Pacific...let's see. That would conflict with the El Nino predictions partly based on water temp samples taken from marine engine cooling intakes...hmmm.
And it's still dry as a camels crotch in Californ...i....a.....hmmmm.
This wouldn't be another incorrect prediction! Surely....!
Maybe it's time to look into the possibility of a Global cooling scenario. That is before we lose to much more money in incorrect predictions.
And maybe another good story for -CO2 production.
Hmmmm.

thermalben wrote:

Perfect for boardies on the Tweed Coast right now; 21-22 degrees.

I surfed the SC this morning and the water was fecking freezing!!! I froze in a springy. Knees were numb by the time I got out.

No way water temps were 21-22 deg inshore up there!!!!

Not significant, Solomons and then PNG off the south-western flank of it.

Hey Craig and Ben. A heads up on ya forecast; you guys had 3-4ft surf. Tonga. 1.5ft on the WNW facing part of the west coast, probably a bit more N in the wind during the day too; fruity system but. Didn't get to check any magnets but the bombie you can see offshore was noticeably large, looking from ashore!

Hang on, so 1.5ft at the coast but "noticeably large" on the bombie? Doesn't quite make sense.

Yeah, as in, I can see action out there, but it's several kms away... In other words I don't think 3-4 is an over call for exposed coast/ swell magnets, cos I'd judge it to be fairly large on an offshore bombie you can see from the coast

Ahh cool. Yeah Tonga is notoriously fickle. 

Checked out the data - models had 2.3m of S/SW swell at 15.3 seconds yesterday lunchtime. I presume the 3-4ft estimate was a considerable size shaving from a well-aligned coast due to the near-obtuse angle the swell was estimated to be across that particular coast (this is factored into our surf height equations).

So, I would expect under those kinds of conditions that an offshore bombie with no obstructions within the swell path would have been considerably bigger than 3-4ft. 

Interesting nevetheless - we haven't had much verification of our swell model from Tonga so every little bit helps.

donweather wrote:

So unusual in fact that if it becomes a cyclone it will be the first one in July off Qld waters.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-low-north-of-coral-sea-could...

Well I hate rain on your parade but that's absolutely incorrect. As appears to be the way around here you should check your facts. July 33,35,54 and 62 and there were many before that.
You guys really need to clean up your acts....eh?

Is that the smell of PWCs warming up?

Are they the cries of Fanning Parko or Morrison getting bitch slapped for there Antics ?

Done and dusted within a day
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0116web.txt